Jordan Spieth can recover from a frustrating second place in the Open and secure a statement victory in the WGC-FedEx St Jude Invitational.
Golf betting tips: WGC-FedEx St Jude Classic
3pts e.w. Jordan Spieth at 16/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
2pts e.w. Patrick Cantlay at 25/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Sam Burns at 80/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Adam Scott at 80/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Kevin Kisner at 100/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
In some way it's been a difficult bedding in period since the PGA Tour elected to swap Ohio for Tennessee, Firestone for Southwind, and move what's now known as the WGC-FedEx St Jude Invitational. Year one went well — Brooks Koepka versus Rory McIlroy a week after the Open — but year two came amid the pandemic, and year three, still amid the pandemic, is absent of the world number one and taking place days after the Olympics.
These could be vital factors in determining the outcome of the tournament. For starters, Jon Rahm would surely have played very well, because that's what he does, and so strong has been his form of late that removing him makes the tournament feel much more open. But it's the Tokyo factor which I find most intriguing: who among the 19 Olympics competitors will overcome jet lag, and who among them will not?
Typically, top-level golfers are capable of hopping off their private jets and contending halfway around the world. We've seen it with victories for Dustin Johnson in the Middle East and Bubba Watson in China, but also in events like the CJ Cup and CIMB Classic, where the PGA Tour ups sticks and heads out for a miniature Asian swing. Paul Casey went from California to Dubai and dominated the Dubai Desert Classic earlier this year, before Johnson turned up and won again in Saudi Arabia.
With this event having been won by Koepka one week on from Royal Portrush, and the Canadian Open so often going to someone who participated in the Open Championship when they used to sit side-by-side in the schedule, perhaps the best approach is to assume those playing can cope. It's just I can't bring myself to do it, not least because it was hot and humid in Tokyo, and it could be hotter and more humid at times in Memphis. The challenge is far from insurmountable, but it is significant.
Three of the top four, seven of the top 15 and 12 of the top 25 in the betting have to overcome it, which could leave the way clear for Koepka to make amends for last year. Back then he'd been sent off a 33/1 shot owing to some form concerns, but looked to have taken control of the event late on only to have it stolen from him by a combination of clumsiness, misfortune, and sheer brilliance from Justin Thomas.
These two, Daniel Berger and Dustin Johnson have combined for the last five titles and, along with Lee Westwood's 2010 victory and Johnson's first in 2012, highlight what is required. More so than most courses on the PGA Tour, Southwind's small greens, perilous hazards and jumpy rough have always demanded quality ball-striking, more specifically quality iron play. Eight of the last 10 winners led the field in strokes-gained tee-to-green. Thomas ranked second in approaches, Koepka first, and both putted poorly. To do so in elite company and still dominate tells us a lot.
A fade off the tee also seems to help, as that's very much the stock choice of all those mentioned and a few more besides, and while all of this screams Koepka, at a bigger price I prefer the claims of Open runner-up JORDAN SPIETH.
Bizarrely, it feels like it's needed a journey to the abyss and back to finally get the message across with this three-time major champion, who dominated the sport five or six years years ago and, having only turned 28 last week, is approaching 200 PGA Tour starts and looking for his 12th PGA Tour win.
At the height of his powers there were those who marked him down as a brilliant putter whose other main attribute was luck, largely because part of what makes him special is hard to quantify. Still, it was clear back then, for those willing to see it, that Spieth is a fabulous shot-maker and it's the return of his long-game which has helped him climb back to 11th in the world.
He'll keep climbing, too, and the same is true of his season-long stats. Spieth is 20th in approach play, but prior to his rise from the ashes in Phoenix he ranked 204th. Since then he's been inside the top 10 in seven of 11 measured starts. Similarly he was 206th in strokes-gained off the tee and while progress here has been less dramatic, he's climbed 90 places and is a round or two away from turning his average from negative to positive.
Chances are that happens this week, because he hasn't lost strokes off the tee since early March. That's absolutely key to his prospects at Southwind, because it was his driver, three-wood and hybrid which each cost him badly in 2019 (37th), and the story was very similar last year, when he finished 30th after a poor final round.
Those results are uninspiring, but it's important to remember where he was at the time. In 2019, he was down to 37th in the world and falling. In 2020 he'd just dropped outside the top 60 for the first time in almost a decade, and after a respectable mid-pack performance here in Tennessee, his results in nine starts to end the year read 71-72-MC-MC-MC-38-41-MC-46. Since Phoenix, 13 starts have produced 12 top-30 finishes, eight of them top-10s.
Spieth's only other visit to Southwind came as a 16-year-old, so while he doesn't have the course form of Koepka, Johnson or Berger, he does have both excuses and the right profile. Approach play is so important here and with bermuda greens likely to bring out his best, this tough par 70 with echoes of Colonial will be ideal if he can continue to drive the ball well, that fade off the tee he's been working on sure to be especially effective.
Doubts around the preparation of the best iron players in the sport leave Spieth as perhaps the ideal candidate to both stay out of trouble and capitalise when chances arrive. He looks a massive player and is preferred to Johnson, whose fundamentals just haven't been good enough, and Koepka, who is admittedly harder to overlook.
Such is the respect for Berger's course form that he's 22/1 from 66/1 since the Open, where he three-putted the final hole to fall to eighth. It's hard to argue with the price collapse, especially as he's not only a two-time champion but was runner-up on just his fourth appearance last summer, and yet he doesn't really appeal from a value perspective.
Despite admiration for the Floridian, PATRICK CANTLAY is a slightly better player in my book and we only have to forgive him a shoddy start to the Open, where he fought back with a second-round 69 and would've made the cut had his scrambling not been abysmal.
In good form prior to that, including around the greens, he's bounced back from a frustrating major more than once before and his iron play has returned over the last two months. Ranking fifth at both the PGA Championship and the Memorial Tournament, latterly enough to capitalise on Rahm's withdrawal and win, he's 25th for the season despite a real dip during the spring, and was 18th last year.
It's Cantlay's approach play which has underpinned his sneakily encouraging play here at Southwind, where he shot 65-68 to lie second at halfway on debut, eventually finishing 12th, and then defied a very slow start to shoot 65-67 across the weekend last year. Notably, he'd been slower than most to return and was playing in just his fourth event since the PGA Tour returned in June.
These rounds showcase his ability to score at the course and while bermuda would not necessarily be his ideal putting surface, he certainly loves fast greens — hence those two wins at Muirfield Village and a near-miss in the 2019 Masters.
Cantlay should also draw something from Xander Schauffele's overdue success in Tokyo, the two having formed a close bond ever since they played junior events together a decade ago. Both stern-faced Californians, they've gone on record in stating their desire to play in the Ryder Cup together, but Cantlay needs to be sure of his place on the team first as he's 10th in the rankings with only six qualifying automatically.
Schauffele hasn't quite sealed it yet but is certain to be selected, whereas Cantlay cannot afford a quiet end to the season. Southwind, which has always correlated well with Copperhead, where he so nearly won during his comeback season, is a good course for this all-rounder who is capable of that top-three tee-to-green ranking we may well need.
If Will Zalatoris is fit then this is a really good course for him, but it's the first time we've seen the Masters runner-up since injury forced him to withdraw from the Open ahead of round two. With that in mind perhaps Harris English, a former course winner, and fellow success story Jason Kokrak are the best options among the next wave, two players who are surely one more win away from Steve Stricker's side.
Kokrak in particular is respected as he's hit it really well here without reward, yet returns a much improved putter who knows how to win. However I prefer the bigger prices available about ADAM SCOTT and SAM BURNS.
Scott does represent a roll of the dice because his long-game has not been good enough since the pandemic stopped him in his tracks, just as he was back to his world-class best. In fact it's the putter which has helped him to make the cut in all bar one event since returning to action at last year's PGA Championship, and right now he ranks 15th for the season.
Off the tee and with his approaches things have been far less consistent, but he has had bursts with his irons including when third in strokes-gained approach in the Tournament of Champions, and fourth at the Honda — a technical, water-laden par 70 with definite parallels to Southwind, and where the last four winners have led the field from tee-to-green.
Scott's approach play wasn't far off at the Travelers, where he completed a run of 16-35-13 on the PGA Tour before fighting hard to make the weekend in the Open. And while finishing 46th there wasn't the desired outcome, I do wonder whether the tweaks he made to his bag, including returning to a similar driver set-up to the one he used when winning the Masters, could act as a turning point for his long-game.
That is of course speculative, but Scott has ranked sixth for strokes-gained approach on his last two visits to Southwind, suggesting it does fit his eye. Before that you have to go all the way back to 2007 for his one and only previous visit, and he led after rounds one, two and three before some very late mistakes cost him the title.
In 2017 he shot 71 to open after a decade away then fired a second-round 64 to climb from 65th to 11th, pretty much where he remained for the rest of the week, and despite having played poorly at Portrush he produced some good stuff for three rounds here on his latest visit in 2019.
We need more from him but the price reflects that and anyone who is making cut after cut is probably not far away. Those equipment changes and the potential vulnerability of so many of the main contenders for this title earn him the benefit of the doubt.
As for Burns, he's a definite bermuda specialist who earned his PGA Tour breakthrough at the Valspar Championship, played at another difficult, tree-lined course which has long favoured a fade off the tee and ties in nicely with Southwind.
Things haven't gone all that smoothly since he won there in Florida, a nagging injury forcing his withdrawal from the PGA Championship, but that looks to be behind him now and he wasn't far off contending in both the Travelers (13th) and the Scottish Open (18th), where away from his preferred bermuda he didn't putt as well as he can.
Expect better in that department here at Southwind, where he was a teenager when missing the cut in 2015, and if that's the case he really could go well, with his long, strong driving and dramatically improved iron play likely to keep him out of trouble. Burns ranks 21st in strokes-gained approach this season, having been well outside the top 100 in each of his previous two.
It is his WGC debut but he reminds me a little of Aaron Wise, who was sixth at Firestone on his, and under familiar conditions this Louisiana native could be a threat to the bigger names.
Sergio Garcia's 20-19-17-19-25 formline is encouraging and he ranked first in strokes-gained tee-to-green at the 3M Open last time. With all of his best form coming in the southern states, largely on bermuda greens with the exception of Augusta, and Ryder Cup motivation strong, a continuation of that sequence looks on the cards and 2/1 for a top-20 finish looks fair.
My final selection though is KEVIN KISNER, less likely to lead the ball-striking stats but nevertheless a quality iron player when on-song, and capable of lighting up the greens in a way Garcia surely will not.
Kisner in fact led the field in strokes-gained approach here two years ago, finishing 27th. It was a remarkable effort given that he opened with a round of 77 to prop up the 63-man field, before shooting 10-under over the final three rounds, a score bettered by just three players.
Last year it was the putter which kept him competitive in 25th while he made the cut on all three starts in the old FedEx St Jude Classic, including when 38th on debut and 13th in 2012. The latter is a very good demonstration of how much he likes the layout, as it was one of just two top-20 finishes all season and came when he was just inside the world's top 500.
Similarly low-ranked for every visit before this became a WGC, he's the sort of shot-maker who can compete against bigger hitters under the right circumstances, and who is prone to putting the lights out on bermuda. With two top-10 finishes prior to a decent enough effort in the Open, and the necessary improvements in his iron play we saw at the second of them, this former WGC winner is worth chancing.
Posted at 1130 BST on 03/08/21
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