Golf betting tips: Tenerife Open
1pt e.w. Garrick Higgo at 11/1 (1/4 1,2,3 General)**
1pt e.w. John Catlin at 16/1 (1/4 1,2,3 General)**
0.5pt top-10 Guido Migliozzi at 7/1 (Sky Bet)
'Lot of birdies, makes it exciting for us' said Rob Lee as he introduced today's Sky coverage. Each to his own.
To be fair, the course at the largest of the Canary Islands has proven a tad more difficult than last week's event at neighboring Gran Canaria but it's defence is wind related and it's that unpredictable factor that might find a touch of value for tomorrow.
Indeed, despite the five par-fives playing the expected five easiest on the course, there are six holes playing over their par, including the three holes on the run to the turn, and getting through those around level par would surely give impetus going into the birdie-laden back nine.
Exchange players should have their fingers on the button as they arrive at holes 11 through to 13, three holes that are playing just over 1.5 shots lower than their combined par.
The most obvious way of looking at this looks to be that par-5 performance chart and, indeed, looking at this season's top-20 brings us the likes of Louis De Jager, Jonathan Caldwell, Sean Crocker, Kalle Samooja, Adrian Meronk and, of course, last week's winner GARRICK HIGGO, all of whom have given themselves chances of a place on the front page by close of play tomorrow.
The 21-year-old South African looked tired during Friday's second round, his afternoon tee-time being part of the 'wrong' (tougher) half but he bounced back today with an impressive bogey-free 66, a figure surely one shot over his 'true' score after missing a tiddler for birdie on the 18th today, a putt that would have taken him to 15-under for the five relevant holes.
Currently top-5 in the yearly standings for the longer holes, he is also on the front page (top-10) for par-3 efforts, useful on a course with six of those.
Winner at Portugal and, of course, at Gran Canaria, the only concern is surely that he just hits a wall when in contention yet again - we saw Justin Harding stall in front when attempting to go back-to-back in Kenya - but Higgo is completely unexposed in comparison and he is almost certain to make some charge tomorrow.
He sounded extremely pleased in his post-round interview and he is hard to let go given he is able to shoot low, no matter the conditions.
Another to have suffered on Friday, the impressive JOHN CATLIN continues to defy thoughts that he needs it tough to be at his best. Indeed, it seems as though he will simply play his game whatever the conditions, and therefore prove best when others cannot cope.
It cannot be coincidence that the now three-time winner (in just 14 events) is thriving now he has reached the supposed peak age of 30, and every gust of wind surely plays into his favour. Winner of a brilliant duel with Martin Kaymer at Valderrama, he then came from four behind to win the Irish Open before again coming off the pace to beat Max Kieffer in a protracted play-off in Austria.
Now certain of a place at the US PGA next month at Kiawah Island, Catlin is playing with confidence and did exceptionally well during the second round, coming back from one-over par through 10 to finish two-under and keep himself in this despite some unusually rough putting stats.
During today's third round, there were times when he looked as if he was fading away, especially having not birdied either of the first par-fives on the back-nine and therefore losing a couple to the field. However, there he is, without a bogey in any round on the final eight holes, something that will be of huge benefit as the nerves surely kick in to those with less silverware, of which there are many.
Quietly sitting in the top-20 for the par-5 performance this year, and just outside that mark on par--3s, he clearly would want the wind to howl but he hasn't been at his best on the greens this week and I'd expect improvement on Payday.
There was much debate in the @lostforewords studio this week as to how Catlin would react to a birdie-fest and whilst calm sunny conditions wouldn't be ideal, he did shoot 64 to win at Galgorm and a shot worse to nick it in Austria, that all ignoring his opening round here - 63 after going 10-under through 10 holes. Catlin owes this column nothing, having been on for both his latest wins and I see no argument against going in again.
It is very hard to have huge confidence in the short prices that sit next to the majority of the front lot, many unproven in front or with a record of failing away under pressure. Dean Burmester is always tempting, and followers of Ben Coley's column will again have a shout of another winner. I'm a huge fan of this giant hitter but that three birdie, three bogey, one eagle back-nine was so 'Deano'. It'll be fun, whatever the outcome.
Perhaps Kalle Samooja will be best of those, given form in Dubai and Qatar, though that play-off loss in Cyprus may be more relevant given it's standing as a similar island resort course. His play around the greens was particularly impressive today but we've seen time and again that players can get dragged down by inexperienced playing partners - Nicolai Von Dellingshausen having folded when leading in Austria last year and who dropped from eighth to 24th in the same event just a couple of weeks ago.
Instead, finish with a top-10 wager on superfast closer Guido Migliozzi, who once again started slowly this week but, despite that, currently leads the weekly par-5 stats.
Throughout his fledgling career, the winner of the two European Tour events, has improved his final placing by around five shots from rounds three to four but it's been his latest Sunday's that have caught the eye.
The Italian has a series of low-mid 60s finishes and it wasn't long ago that he came from 18th in Qatar to only be beaten by an Antione Rozner 60-footer, but that merely backs up a 67 at Saudi Arabia and a host of 65s throughout the last fifteen or so tournaments. Improving each round, from 70 to 68 and 65, he's too far away to make an impact on the lead but is quite capable of taking advantage of the easier early conditions and flying up the board.
**As a note, for those wishing to take a safer route, Sky Bet are offering outright without the current top three.
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