European Tour: Cyprus Open betting preview and tips from Ben Coley

Recommended bets

2pts e.w. Matthias Schwab at 28/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Antoine Rozner at 40/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Sami Valimaki at 40/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Sean Crocker at 45/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Shubhankar Sharma at 100/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

0.5pt e.w. Joel Sjoholm at 350/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

Onwards! That's what they say, isn't it? In Keith Elliott's golf betting bible, there must surely be a page dedicated to torment, to misfortune; to higher blood pressure, to (even) fewer hairs upon head. Above all else, to moving on. Golf is a four-days-a-week sport, and carrying anything with you from one event to the next is as unsustainable as taking bad prices in the long-run. Keith knows that. You know that. Somewhere, deep down, so do I.

But ProV1s to that, because Sunday brought us a new low, or at least that is how it feels now, the agony still raw little more than 24 hours later. Laurie Canter, as will be plain to anyone who watched it, ought to have won the Italian Open. I don't seek to blame him - who am I to tell an actual professional what they should do or how they should feel in a situation they've never experienced? No, it's solidarity I am offering. He was robbed. We was robbed. Ross McGowan (who, by the way, seems a lovely chap and all that) did perform an act of thievery. There will be few who have ever won a top-tier tournament hitting the ball as he did.

That felt good. It really isn't the end of the world. 'Onwards!' then, to the Cyprus Open, another new tournament to seek to unravel, and one played at a course only the odd holidaymaker will know really well.

Aphrodite Hills is listed at a meagre 6,956 yards by the European Tour, who make their first visit to the island. It has five par-threes, including a dramatic seventh hole which is played over a ravine and, by all accounts, involves a pretty scary cart ride down to the green. There are four par-fives, among which only the third is a beast. And, as you'll have worked out by deduction, the par-fours are generally short: just one of them tops 450 yards which, these days, is remarkable.

With little wind in the forecast, which suggests temperatures will be consistently around 27 degrees as the sun makes a welcome return, this is resort golf how it was meant to be. For some of the best players on the European Tour - this is a pretty good field, at least at the front - we should expect another relative picnic. Perhaps the canyon which bisects the course will swallow enough balls to keep a lid on things, but I wouldn't be so sure.

Watching the flyover and reading reviews, this PGA-approved course at what is by all accounts a fabulous venue is built for friendliness. Fairways are generous, ridiculously so in places; greens are generally large. Water is only in play on two holes, both of them short par-fives, and so this looks a battle of the birdies. Key to winning may be setting up chance after chance, though after McGowan's ramshackle tee-to-green game, I just don't know what to think anymore.

My theory goes that in a game of wedges and short-irons, the winner will likely figure highly in greens and strokes-gained approach. Any kind of workable putter may well do it, so that's not really too much of a concern given the inconsistency we always see on the greens. If you still need convincing of that, consider this: McGowan putted awfully at the Scottish Championship, where Adrian Otaegui rode a hot putter to win. Otaegui ranked 50th of 67 players in putting in Italy, where McGowan rode a hot putter to devastate thousands of decent people. This is not abnormal.

The other elements I like here involve, well, the elements - the temperature rose slightly from Scotland to Italy, but takes an almighty leap up the thermo-ladder here - and some form by the sea, perhaps even on islands like Mauritius or Sicily. And then there's the course designer, Cabell B. Robinson, although he downplays the uniqueness of his work and prides himself on use of the land, and on routing. I'm not sure we should get carried away with that angle.

Speaking of which, I've had to talk myself down from what you might call getting carried away, with stakes kept to standard for the headline bet. At 100/1, SHUBHANKAR SHARMA leaps off the page and if you only take one name from this, I suggest it's his.

Sharma is a quality iron player, and that's what made him look so promising when he won the 2017 Joburg Open and followed up with another win in Malaysia early on the following year. Come the end of that debut season on the European Tour he ranked 12th in strokes-gained approach, and at the conclusion of what you might call a sophomore slump, he was still right up there in 37th.

This time around he's in a respectable 46th, but rather than reflect a gradual downturn, a closer look reveals that he's operating at a much higher level right now. Over his last five tournaments, Sharma's rankings in this potentially pivotal department read 22nd, 22nd, 21st, 12th, 10th. Progressive, consistent, and key to a quiet renaissance.

That tells me he's going to be dangerous when he has things in his favour, and a short, low-scoring test in the sun could prove the answer.

On the last point, I don't think we should underestimate how significant the change in climate could be for some golfers - not least Sharma, raised in a part of India where temperatures regularly top 40 degrees celsius during the summer.

I wonder whether that may explain, at least to a degree, another factor in his favour: his late-year form. This is something I touched upon in Scotland, on his last start, where those cool conditions won't have helped. Year after year, Sharma has played poorly in June, July and August, and year after year, he's left that behind as we approach Christmas.

It could be related to the schedule, the fact that on the European Tour some of the best events are in summer, maybe even a distaste towards links golf in Ireland or Scotland. But it could also be related to the fact that in India, during those months, golf almost shuts down - the PGTI certainly does, with soaring temperatures and the threat of monsoons making that the only real option if you want to be completing tournaments.

Perhaps, Sharma has grown used to trying to peak at the start of the year, when there are opportunities in events co-sanctioned by the Asian and European Tours - like the one he took in Malaysia. And perhaps he's found it easier than most to focus towards the end, such as in Joburg, or else in time for the big events in Asia including back home. One way or another the facts, rather than my speculation, speak for themselves.

Sharma's scoring average for the non-summer months is a shot and change better than for the other three - more than four per tournament. And, in 28 events (which award OWGR points) played from June to August, he's never finished better than 20th, a result which came on a developmental tour. By contrast his top-10 strike-rate in the remainder is close to 20 per cent and includes Rolex Series events and two very strong winning performances.

There are all kinds of caveats and possible explanations but in 2017, Sharma went 11-9-4-9 at the start of the year, was quiet until October (six missed cuts in 10), and then finished off 21-24-18-10-27-1. In 2018, he won early on, then slumped in summer, before an out-of-nowhere share of 10th in the CIMB Classic, a strong PGA Tour event. Later on, he'd finish sixth in Hong Kong on the European Tour. And then last year, he did next to nothing from May until finding form in September, finishing seventh in two good events, contending at Wentworth and also taking a solid 21st in Portugal.

History may be about to repeat. He's gone from missing five cuts in six since the Tour returned to making five in a row, a sure sign that his game is there. At the Scottish Open he was second on the wrong side of the draw at halfway, he then played solid enough golf at Wentworth, before a 70-68 weekend - his best since Turkey last November - earned him another decent cheque in Scotland.

All of this has been done in cool, British conditions with the exception of a decent week in Portugal, and he should be raring to go now the Tour reaches Cyprus. The fact that scoring ought to be low is another plus - he's won in 21- and 23-under at this level - and this talented youngster need only take small steps forward on his recent play to become a factor once more. At a short course like this one, he can do it.

Sharma is considered the best value of my selections and the most interesting bet of the week, but the most solid might well be MATTHIAS SCHWAB, who is perhaps now ready to return to his best and land a first European Tour title.

Schwab was on my opening long-list in Italy, but he'd sounded fairly downbeat at Wentworth, and I worried that Chervo may not play to his strengths. I was probably wrong on the latter as he led the field from tee-to-green despite always facing an uphill battle against the sluggers and those, like the winner, who are able to get hot and stay hot on the greens, but he certainly ended the week feeling better about his game than he started it.

This talented Austrian was in fact dead last in putting, which would be a red flag for some. I'm far less concerned, especially as he putted well at Wentworth before that and has been in and out throughout his time on the European Tour.

The real appeal here is in his ball-striking, which is the staple of his game and improved again from the BMW PGA Championship. When Schwab clicks, he's up there with the best iron players on the European Tour and as he's never going to be among the very best drivers, it makes sense to side with him on a shorter layout whose wide fairways make it appear very much a second-shot course.

Although his form this summer hasn't been particularly strong, there's one clue which could be key. Back in July, at the 3M Open, he produced outstanding long-game figures, about a quarter of a stroke (in total, i.e. next to nothing) shy of last week in Italy. The very next week, he finished third on the PGA Tour in the Barracuda Championship, that confidence which had started to grow delivering one of the best performances of his career.

He won't win this putting as he did in Italy, but Schwab could well be hitting upwards of four greens in five, and, crucially, peppering flags. If he does so and the putter returns to the levels of two starts back, he looks a threat to all. And if he repeats that fortnight in the USA, this could be the week he wins a first professional title.

Andy Sullivan is favourite and I don't dispute he's a worthy one, as one of the very best iron players at this level, who was third last time, and has won and placed twice this summer. Still, 12/1 looks on the short side given that for all he's flown home several times, he's only been inside the top 20 at halfway once since the restart. Don't forget he's also one of the many UK players surely at an advantage having played on home soil as many as 10 times.

Thomas Detry could and perhaps should have won in Mauritius late last year and that form looks somewhat relevant, so he was considered once more along with Benjamin Hebert, who also contended there. However, Detry's iron play isn't where I'd want it to be so ANTOINE ROZNER is preferred.

Regular readers will recall Rozner was put up at 100/1 for that event in Mauritius, one in which he'd finished seventh on a previous visit. The Challenge Tour graduate justified the faith and would have won with a closing birdie, only to make five and then lose to the superstar Rasmus Hojgaard in a play-off which we'll likely see repeated over the years as the moment the Dane accelerated in his journey to the top.

Rozner has since franked that form himself in one of the most consistent rookie campaigns you'll see, missing just two cuts in 16 tournaments, despite the other 15 being new to him. Last week's 10th place in Italy was his third top-10 finish since the restart and fifth in all - only Hojgaard, Martin Kaymer and Connor Syme have more - so it really has been a seamless transition from those two wins on the Challenge Tour.

Key to all of this has been the fact that he's an excellent ball-striker, ranking 42nd off the tee and seventh with his approaches, the latter putting him fourth in this field. That and his form by the sea in Mauritius, plus on what you might call similar courses on the Challenge Tour including when winning in Spain, place him firmly in the mix.

Rozner has been first, 15th and sixth in strokes-gained approach across his last four starts, the blip coming in Northern Ireland, and it's only when chipping that he has a potential weakness. That may well be mitigated at this short, resort course where finding greens isn't expected to be a problem.

At similar prices, SAMI VALIMAKI and SEAN CROCKER are also included.

Valimaki opened 50/1 which stood out a mile, and I don't mind taking the 40/1 which is still widely available. He's simply got more scope than most here, is already a European Tour winner by the coast, and arrives in really good form.

To lead the field in greens in regulation at Wentworth, as he did last time, shows how well Valimaki has been learning on the job, and finishing 13th there was excellent. That means four of his last five starts in Europe have been top-15s - the others sixth, second and 10th - and a similar performance in this markedly weaker field would have him right in the mix.

Four times a winner on the Pro Golf Tour before sailing through Qualifying School, where he picked up some positive course-designer form along the way, Valimaki is a rising star who is clearly comfortable by the coast, and three of these five performances I mentioned were powered by quality approach play.

It was the putter which proved decisive in Oman when a big-priced winner for us, and that was back behaving at Wentworth. Given that he'd been off for precisely three weeks prior to that breakthrough, an identical absence doesn't concern me, and this Finn is going places. A second win - something achieved by Hojgaard, Sam Horsfield and John Catlin this season - would by no means be a surprise.

Crocker meanwhile has been among the most impressive ball-strikers since June and with that has made all nine cuts.

The fact he's yet to land the place money is not overly concerning as the cards will fall for him sooner or later and it simply looks a case of timing, at least from our perspective. On that score, again I'm hoping his around-the-greens weakness isn't too much of an issue here, while the fact we're by the coast may well be a positive, too.

Having won the Italian International Amateur Championship before I was hoping we'd see him last week, at a course he'd have loved, but this could also prove a suitable opportunity given he's fifth in this field for birdie average, and sixth in strokes-gained approach.

That combination looks key and while by no means do I expect this to be a slug-fest like we saw at Chervo, it doesn't hurt to have that little extra in the locker which could put a couple of these par-fours within reach as well as at least three of the par-fives.

Zimbabwe-born, California-educated and now Florida-residing Crocker wrote 'just give me some warmer weather' on Instagram while on his way to ninth place in Scotland last time, where he recorded a personal-best strokes-gained approach figure and his best tee-to-green numbers, too. He's close to putting it all together.

At a similar price, Nicolas Colsaerts was tempting enough. He acknowledged that he seems to enjoy playing in October en route to second last week, almost a year to the day since he won in Paris. The Belgian has some excellent coastal and island form including in Sicily and Mauritius, and he loved going to Robinson's Finca Cortesin, where he won the Volvo Match Play in 2012 and always played well.

All of that plus his second quality ball-striking display in three starts earned him a second glance, but it would be quite like the cigarette-smoking, ex-party-animal-in-chief of the European Tour to chase good with bad. At 40/1, he just doesn't look big enough to justify taking on board that risk.

Instead the final spot in my staking plan goes to JOEL SJOHOLM, who is a ridiculous 350/1 in places.

It's probably wise not to get too carried away with the fact he's third among this field in strokes-gained approach this season, but it does indicate he's produced some fine displays in the department I think is probably most significant here.

Last week he was 22nd in Italy, on a course a little longer than he'd like, but it's his island form which really intrigues me. Sjoholm was 26th in Mauritius at the start of the season, shooting rounds of 66 and 65 which were undermined by a shocker on Saturday, and his Challenge Tour win came on Sardinia.

Ninth at Morgado, third in Sicily (another island, for those who skipped geography) and fourth once upon a time in the Dunhill Links all showcase his ability by the sea and it was only the fifth hole last week (+5) that cost him an even higher finish.

Runner-up at the start of the season at Leopard Creek, a performance which came on the back of a top 25 in Spain, he has some Robinson form in Morocco to his name, too, and looks worth a small dart.

Posted at 2000 BST on 26/10/20

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