Free golf betting tips: Previews and best bets for the Farmers Insurance Open
Ben Coley is really keen on Adam Scott ahead of this week's PGA Tour event, the Farmers Insurance Open, while he also has some big-priced each-way fancies.
Golf betting tips: Farmers Insurance Open
2pts e.w. Hideki Matsuyama at 28/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
2pts e.w. Adam Scott at 45/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Louis Oosthuizen at 60/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Gary Woodland at 70/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
0.5pt e.w. Luke List at 200/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
The ascent of the European Tour's Middle East swing and further surgery for Tiger Woods contribute to a curiously thin field for the Farmers Insurance Open. Why curiously? Because it is, as ever, at Torrey Pines, whose fearsome South Course will host the US Open this June. Money explains why Dustin Johnson and Bryson DeChambeau are over in Saudi Arabia next week, which in turn explains their decision to skip this. But I'm surprised Webb Simpson, Patrick Cantlay, Daniel Berger and a handful more don't see any value in a scouting mission.
Granted, the 2008 US Open leaderboard might suggest that form in the Farmers isn't worth much, despite Tiger Woods' absurd, one-legged victory over Rocco Mediate. And you can look to the 2019 US Open at Pebble Beach to strengthen the argument that changing conditions render January form almost meaningless in June. Nevertheless, despite some transatlantic schedule conflict I had anticipated something stronger.
Punters still must decide whether to be with or against Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy at the head of the market. Rahm won his first professional title here in 2017 and could so easily have won it again since, but there are two concerns: his manufacturer switch in the brief off-season (although with Callaway HQ here in California, there's no place better to get things ironed out), and the gym injury which led to his withdrawal from last week's AmEx, where he's a past champion. Rahm said he was being cautious in not playing there and perhaps he's 100 per cent, but suddenly he looks just a little vulnerable - even here.
McIlroy meanwhile has two top-fives from as many starts at Torrey Pines, where his smooth power is so advantageous. I appreciate they'll tell you driving the ball miles is always beneficial, and that's almost true, but there are few courses upon which it gives players like McIlroy - and Rahm - so much of a head start. The South is a beast which, at 7,765 yards, is the longest on the Tour.
For McIlroy, who finished a shot behind Rahm here last year as Marc Leishman's putter left them both behind, there are also two main issues: his trip from Abu Dhabi, and his Sunday performance there. I would be in no rush to read too much into the latter, for all that he played poorly in the final round, but jet lag must be some kind of a concern. McIlroy has only done the east-to-west, one-week turnaround twice before, and both times finishes inside the top 10 at courses he likes. But on both occasions he paid the price for one very costly round and that is a risk here, too.
He would nevertheless be preferred to Rahm if you want one of the market leaders on side, but the best bet here by quite a distance looks to be ADAM SCOTT, whose price really surprises me.
Odds of 45/1 reflect the fact that the Australian hasn't been much of a factor since returning to action at the PGA Championship, but we shouldn't judge him too harshly. To return from five months away in a major and finish 22nd is extraordinarily impressive, and three of his four subsequent events were either majors or FedEx Cup Playoffs. It's not all that surprising that Scott, for all he's long been fairly lightly-raced, couldn't quite live with players who had spent the summer getting sharp.
His decision to play the Hawaii swing to begin this year suggests that the 40-year-old saw those six starts post-lockdown as preparation for a big 2021, and it's worth remembering that when the pandemic hit and golf shut down, he was ranked ninth in the world having won two of his previous four tournaments. Now down at 23, he should be rated considerably higher than that.
Putting problems remain, particularly from close range, and we saw them in the first round of the year - one he called his best for half a decade from a ball-striking perspective. A succession of short misses saw him finish mid-pack before he took 41st at the Sony Open, a second-round 64 and Sunday's 66 again revealing that his long-game is back where he needs it to be to challenge at the highest level.
Scott was runner-up at Waialae in 2009 but more recently had struggled in that event, and Torrey Pines is a much more suitable venue. He played well in the US Open here 13 years ago, and it was a little surprising that he waited until 2019 to make his Farmers debut, where he chased home then-world number one Justin Rose and in fact was the best player over the 54 holes of the South Course.
"I've been coming to this area for a long, long time," he said. "It's one of my favourite spots in the States, I've got a lot of friends down here, I've enjoyed surfing here for like 15 years, so it's kind of my spot where I've always come to surf in the States. And Torrey is a great course.
"I guess the weather was incredible this week, but what I was really pleased to see is how the North course was. I had never played it until this week. The greens are absolutely pure and it was just a joy to play golf here this week in this kind of weather on a great venue."
That experience edge he gave away on the North Course may have cost him the tournament, although it's also true that Rose played spectacularly. The hope is that Scott is better prepared for 18 holes on the layout which is easier, albeit no pushover, and with cooler weather this week set to make scoring tougher, he should find the grind here right up his street.
Scott's PGA Tour win last February came here in California as he won for a second time at Riviera, and what little evidence we have so far suggests he can putt well on these greens at the South - he ranked 14th a couple of years ago.
This is fundamentally an excellent course for him and he's twice the price of Tony Finau, Harris English and an out of sorts Patrick Reed. That to me screams each-way value in a field where so many of the big names have questions to answer, including Viktor Hovland, Sungjae Im, Scottie Scheffler, Jason Day and Brooks Koepka, plus those already named.
Day is a tempting price given that he's been seventh and 12th either side of the Masters. He's a two-time Torrey Pines winner whose high ball-flight is ideal for small, firm, poa annua greens, which he of course putts so well. He went off around the same price for the US Open as he does here, on the back of contending for the US PGA in California, and has plenty in his favour. Having gone well fresh many times, he's definitely respected.
The worry is that he's left TaylorMade, and his bag now includes Mizuno irons and a different putter to that which took him to the top of the world. He's also working with Chris Como, former coach of Tiger Woods, and there are plenty of unknowns. He'd have been chanced at 50/1 but with 35/1 now the best price, I'll look elsewhere.
There's no doubt that HIDEKI MATSUYAMA has questions to answer but the big concern - his putter - could be considered less of a worry here than just about anywhere on the circuit.
Matsuyama's best three putting performances since joining the PGA Tour read 2016 PLAYERS, 2014 Farmers and 2018 Farmers, so he's clearly been comfortable enough on the South Course greens and anyone who follows the sport will know he's a good putting week away from having every chance to win.
Surely at his best on difficult tracks, including the brutally long South Course at Firestone where he produced his career-best victory, he contended in the US Open at Winged Foot and at Olympia Fields - two of the courses with the
thickest rough and toughest-to-hit fairways in 2020, comments which always apply here.
Matsuyama was third in this event in 2019, but he played well enough on the South in both 2014 and 2018 to hit the frame, only to struggle at the North Course. Rounds of 66 and 67 there over the last couple of years are his best yet and suggest the changes by Tom Weiskopf, which made it trickier, are to his liking - there are no longer any excuses on that front.
Outstanding from tee-to-green at the Sony Open last time and excellent in the mix in Houston before Christmas, Matsuyama's at times fragile confidence appears to be returning and if he does putt well early on - his long-term poa annua stats underline that he's far superior on these greens to others - then he should be right in the mix.
Having previewed the US Open in December, my selections for it have to be on the radar. Cameron Champ and Bubba Watson were both twice the price for the major, though, and the former was very poor last week. Accordingly, Matt Wolff was the one who came closest to making the staking plan, but it's been a quiet start to the year and there wasn't a great deal to get excited about during last week's AmEx.
By contrast, GARY WOODLAND showed much more there and while the jury is still out as to his health and the overall state of his game, I expected the market to react more strongly to four solid rounds and some quality ball-striking as he finished in a share of 16th.
Woodland played some very poor golf towards the back-end of 2020, but hip and back injuries were behind all of it and the extent of them was only revealed last week, as he told reporters he was close to tears at finally playing a tournament without pain.
I can't say that backing up quickly in conditions which are set to be very cool isn't a worry, because it is, but again it doesn't appear that the layers have placed any stock in what he said at the weekend, and the fact that strong driving powered his improved play.
Woodland's record here at Torrey Pines is very good, with five top-20 finishes in his last seven, and he's long been especially fond of the more difficult South Course, where he's shot 66 a couple of times. Although yet to hit the frame, he's led at halfway and through 54 holes in separate renewals, and has entered Sunday with a chance to win in four of his last six visits.
Notably, and to underline his love for the South, he has been among the top six scorers at the host course on three occasions, all within his last five visits, and his long hitting is a big weapon here - just as it was when he won his major along the coast at Pebble Beach.
There is a risk he bounces, that the AmEx was a false dawn, but that would've put me off at 33-40/1. At 66/1 with those paying eight places and 70/1 with seven places at Betfred, he has to be worth chancing.
Winged Foot might prove a decent guide to this and Will Zalatoris is shortlisted as a result, but Rahm aside the rule is you don't win your first PGA Tour event at Torrey Pines - although Kyle Stanley of course should have. Zalatoris is special, as evidenced by hitting the frame in the US Open before earning his PGA Tour card, but 50/1 generally is giving nothing away. Then again, I did say the same about Rahm.
LOUIS OOSTHUIZEN is a little bigger in the betting with some firms and anything 50/1 and upwards is worth taking about a player who also placed in the US Open.
Having been runner-up in all four majors to go with his Open win, the story goes that Oosthuizen is a major specialist who is best ignored elsewhere - which is why he's 66/1 for this in places, but shorter for a US Open that will feature all of the best players in the world.
It's hard to argue with this logic in some respects, but I do think it's overplayed and that the South African surely must be more likely to win a weaker tournament than a stronger one, even if he has found the key to performing on the biggest stage.
Perhaps the Farmers hits the sweet spot of being held at the sort of tough course his attitude and skills seem so well suited to, but with a weaker field making it a realistic place to win, and I think he's being overlooked here on the basis of a missed cut in the RSM Classic (much more prominent in the betting), where so many big names suffered a post-Masters slump.
Prior to that, Oosthuizen played well at Augusta and his game appeared to turn a corner from the WGC-St Jude onwards, all aspects ticking over nicely without necessarily firing together.
His sole Farmers start came in 2017 and offered just enough encouragement, especially as he's one player for whom a prolonged absence isn't a concern. Those four titles he's won on his first start of the year come with a significant caveat - all were in South Africa - but he's also been second, fourth, sixth and seventh more recently, including in Qatar and Abu Dhabi, so he can clearly get that silky smooth swing going straight away.
A lack of PGA Tour wins is of course a worry, but I can't see why he'd be pitched in with Francesco Molinari on the basis of one quite encouraging week for the Italian, or with Jason Kokrak following a quiet start to the year. Oosthuizen is a little underrated and this looks a good event for him to show exactly why.
I do think San Diego High alumni Rickie Fowler is on the way back but it's a long time since he played well here and I'll be watching for signs of encouragement for Phoenix. The same goes for Byeong Hun An, who will be inspired by friend and compatriot Si Woo Kim's win last week but is very early on in his relationship with Sean Foley and has massively struggled on poa annua in the past.
None of those mentioned really came close to the staking plan, but Doug Ghim did. A former US Amateur finalist at Riviera, Ghim bagged his first PGA Tour top-five last week and was hitting the ball really nicely throughout the event. He shot 63 at the North Course here in 2019, a third-round 67 at the South, and he's a promising player who could build on his effort at PGA West.
That said I want to stick with big-hitters in the main, which is why I'm prepared to put LUKE LIST in a staking plan which already features Scott and Matsuyama.
As demonstrated in both starts this year, List is not a good putter and chances are it costs him again, but his long-game looks in really good shape and might be enough to carry him into contention here. He has made the cut in four of his six starts in the Farmers, narrowly missing on the other two occasions, and was bang in contention in 2018 before a disappointing final round - it should and does play to his strengths.
List has placed in a PGA Championship at Bethpage to further demonstrate that he can be a big threat when there is such an imbalance towards the bigger hitters (Koepka beat Johnson in that renewal), and if we are going to get some putts to drop then likely it happens on poa annua - anecdotally, he was born in Seattle and grew up in California, but his stats confirm he improves for these greens, too, and by more than three strokes per tournament.
Three strokes last week would've been the difference between 21st and a top-10 finish, and while it's rarely so simple, I do think he can blast his way into the mix. List hasn't won at this level yet which is a worry, but he does have a recent victory to his name on the Korn Ferry Tour and odds of 200/1 mean we can chase the place first and foremost.
Finally, I like that he's played so well at Glen Abbey, which offers a slightly odd correlation with Torrey Pines. That course, one-time home of the Canadian Open but now making way for some houses, is one where fairways are very hard to hit and such circumstances always favour bigger hitters who are able to launch wedges high and land them softly from the rough.
Jhonattan Vegas helps establish the link and is respected as a regular contender here who was 20th in Mexico when last we saw him, ranking second in greens hit. However, the reason he missed the AmEx is that he tested positive for Covid-19 and that presents an unknown as he makes his first start since early December, which is enough for me to swerve the multiple PGA Tour winner.
Instead, I'll split stakes between BRANDON HAGY and RYAN BREHM in the hope that we do see a stacked, power-heavy leaderboard.
Hagy is pound-for-pound one of the longest hitters in the sport, and the wiry Californian was bang in the mix last week, leading after a first-round 64 and sitting second at halfway before a quiet weekend saw him slip to 21st.
He'll need to step up on that but I was nevertheless a little surprised to see him put in at 400/1, having shot 66-71 to open here in 2019 and also played nicely enough on his 2016 debut.
His best finish on the PGA Tour came in the Canadian Open at Glen Abbey, when fifth, and that was partly why I sided with him here last year at 500/1. Thanks to his performance in the AmEx his form this time appears stronger, the field is weaker, and I was interested to hear him talk about a change in his mindset having become a father a few months ago.
Yet to fulfil his potential, I can see Hagy going well at a course like this one and he's worth a speculative bet at 250/1 or bigger, or else taking 33-40/1 for a top-10 finish if you're happy to go without the Hail Mary win wager.
As for Brehm (50/1 for a top 10), he's another monster hitter and has made both cuts here so far. He's also made seven of his last eight cuts and sat eighth at halfway in the Mayakoba last time, within the top 15 with a round to go in Bermuda and the Dominican Republic, and opened with a 64 to lead the Wyndham.
It looks like he's playing the best golf of a PGA Tour career which is yet to yield a top-10 finish, but he is a two-time Korn Ferry Tour winner, including on poa annua greens in Oregon, and he's so well suited to the challenge ahead that I can't resist anything 500/1 and bigger.
Such odds should underline the unlikelihood of a place, let alone a win, but there's room for some powerful, low-ranked players inside the top 10 and Brehm has the tools off the tee to make it happen. It should be noted that he withdrew before the start last week but at the odds that unknown is gladly taken on board.
Posted at 1240 GMT on 26/01/20
Click here for Ben Coley's tipping record
Responsible gambling
We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.
Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.