PGA Tour: BMW Championship betting preview and tips from Ben Coley

Recommended bets

2.5pts e.w. Xander Schauffele at 18/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1.5pt e.w. Viktor Hovland at 40/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Bubba Watson at 100/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Jason Kokrak at 100/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Cameron Smith at 150/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

0.5pt e.w. Robby Shelton at 250/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

Dustin Johnson's performance in winning The Northern Trust by 11 shots was so good, so anomalous, that not even a reach for the thesaurus can do it justice. Only the bare facts work sometimes. Johnson was the first player since 2006 to win a PGA Tour event by such a wide margin. He is the third in history to reach 30-under in a 72-hole tournament, and nobody has ever played the final three rounds in fewer strokes. So dominant was his golf over the weekend that he even managed to stop commentators talking about how hard it is to back up a low round.

Markets in this run of consistently strong, 'new normal' events on the PGA Tour have been reactionary by requirement, sometimes overly so - see a number of winners who bounced back from a quiet week. This time, it's hard to argue with Johnson's promotion from sixth or seventh in the betting to first, the place he also now holds in the world rankings. He's won back-to-back events twice before - three times if you count double for his 2017 hat-trick - and didn't exactly have to expend mental energy (ha!) having won the tournament ahead of time.

The challenge for Johnson will be dealing with a very different golf course to TPC Boston, which he made look easier than it is. Olympia Fields is a championship layout which hosted the US Open in 2003 and the Women's PGA in 2013, the latter won in 13-under when playing to a par of 71 and the former in eight-under but by a margin of three. Back to its original routing, the course which Bryson DeChambeau conquered in the 2015 US Amateur will play as the longest par 70 so far this year, its 7,366 yards not all that far behind the likes of Bethpage and Firestone.

Reports from Chicago, including from members at Olympia Fields, indicate that rough might grow to five-and-a-half inches by the weekend, a message reiterated by tournament director Brian Morrison. That's a considerable increase on what you might call an ordinary PGA Tour set-up and, combined with the yardage and holes such as the monstrous eighth, suggests the best guide might come not from Boston, but from San Francisco, where Johnson finished second to Collin Morikawa in the PGA Championship at TPC Harding Park.

A course this long, with rough as thick as it is reported to be, makes for a serious grind - one which should favour those who drive the ball well. It's true that a couple of the difficult par-fours demand a shorter tee-shot, but players will be anxious to reach for driver whenever they can given the size of the course, and the scoring holes - such as they are - will likely demand excellence from the tee. Landing areas are generally tight, pinched in beyond 300 yards and framed by bunkering on this old-fashioned design. DeChambeau surely won't be able to successfully engage all-out attack, but nor do I expect a repeat of 2003, when Jim Furyk won his sole major with a fairway-first approach.

Everything about the place screams XANDER SCHAUFFELE and this may well be the week it all comes together for one of the most reliable players on the circuit.

While appreciating that in this business, winning is important, Schauffele does help demonstrate how narrow the margins are where he's operating, and how an absence of trophies may not paint the full picture. That is to say, 2020 has been his best season, at least in terms of quality of golf, only for a couple of shocking and ill-timed mistakes to cost him a couple more victories.

The search for a fifth PGA Tour title goes on, and it's that which makes his position in the market appear a little elevated when the strokes-gained numbers say otherwise. By that measure he's seventh for the season, another good step up on 2019, and the message should be loud and clear: keep playing the way he's been playing, and the door will swing open.

It's perhaps most likely to do so under the conditions he favours and he has them here, as he explained in a recent episode of the Beyond The Clubhouse podcast.

"I feel like I have an advantage based on courses playing harder, conditions playing harder; I like to play on harder golf courses," said Schauffele. "I shy away from a week where 25-under wins. It's not my cup of tea - I would rather grind out pars and bogeys on a harder golf course."

He will absolutely get that this time, and it helps explain why his three best performance post-lockdown - at Colonial, Southwind, and Harding Park - have come when par has counted. Schauffele has been inside the top 25 in 11 of his last 12 events, so he's playing well everywhere, but his genuine chances to win have come across a trio of par 70 courses with thick rough and where big numbers have to be avoided.

At third for the year in bogey avoidance, Schauffele is the highest-ranked of the bigger hitters and we've recent evidence to call upon, too - he ranked first in Memphis, 15th at Harding Park, and then third last week at TPC Boston. As had been the case in the WGC at Southwind, the 26-year-old again improved on a previously mediocre record at the course as he went from the cut-line to 25th behind Johnson, and that's a nice platform to take with him to Illinois.

Schauffele's ability to avoid mistakes comes from the tee, where he ranks seventh for the season and has been inside the top 15 in each of his last four events, including when again first in Memphis. It's that sort of strong-off-the-tee, low-on-mistakes game I think will work wonders around here and his outstanding major record is further evidence that he should prove extremely well suited to Olympia Fields. He should go close.

DeChambeau's US Amateur win will put him towards the top of many a shortlist, and he stepped up on a previously low-key record in majors when contending at Harding Park. Still, he'd be the first winner of this to do so following a missed cut and if you are to take one from the 2015 event here it perhaps ought to be Jon Rahm, whose performance in Boston was not dissimilar to that which he produced a week prior to winning the Memorial Tournament and reaching the summit of the sport.

There's plenty more amateur form to go on courtesy of the Fighting Illini Invitational, won by the likes of Cameron Champ and Matthew Wolff, Maverick McNealy (whose girlfriend won the aforementioned LPGA major here) and Harris English. It is not to be taken as substantial evidence - quite the opposite, in fact - but nor should it be discounted, because in the case of three of that quartet it means they will have less homework to do.

Wolff and Champ have won three titles between them, all at courses which are relatively new to the circuit, while Morikawa's heroics at Harding Park came on a course which so few had worthwhile experience of. It is surely easier for them to come to a place like Olympia Fields and be as prepared as those who've been around longer than it would be at established venues, for all the outstanding Morikawa coped just fine at Muirfield Village last month.

The fact that Morikawa followed his first professional missed cut with a win suggests we needn't worry about his second, while Wolff played well for three rounds last week, but it's his team-mate VIKTOR HOVLAND who I prefer this time.

This Norwegian stud has already shown what a bit of course knowledge can do by finishing 12th in the US Open at Pebble Beach, where he'd won his US Amateur the previous year. And while not quite producing the fireworks of Wolff and Hovland in the college event held here, he wasn't far behind them as recently as September 2018, closing with a round of 67 to finish sixth.

Last week, he finished 18th after a final-round 66 which ought to have been better still, after he made a mess of the 15th from the middle of the fairway, three-putted 17 from close range, and then added a final three-putt at the 18th hole for good measure.

That one-hour episode which cost him a top-10 finish underlines all of the negatives, particularly the chunked chip which turned what ought to have been a straightforward par into a costly double-bogey four from home. It's well-documented now that Hovland has his issues around the greens and that coach Pete Cowen, with whom he's working, described his short-game as "one out of 10". We even saw it when he won in Puerto Rico, and again at Southwind recently when he shanked a pitch from just short of the 18th.

All of which may be enough to put you off, but such is the nature of the modern game that Hovland has succeeded regardless and that's largely because he's so strong off the tee and with his approaches, ranking 18th and eighth respectively. We saw those skills on full display behind Morikawa in the Workday and there was just enough in his Boston display, especially with his irons in the final round, to suggest he's nearing that level of form again.

Thick rough around the greens can be a leveller - those ugly shots discussed earlier all came from tight lies in the fairway - so this course may help a little in the same way that Muirfield Village did, and from 24th in the FedEx Cup the 22-year-old can lock up an East Lake place to cap a fine rookie campaign.

Back at the top of the market it's seriously tempting to take the 18/1 offered about Rory McIlroy. All the risks - that he's chopping and changing putters, that he looks disinterested, that he's not threatened in any way since the restart - are beginning to be factored in, and you'd hope at some stage over the next fortnight he'll wake up and take these tournaments seriously.

Most encouragingly, McIlroy's iron play last week was as good as it's been since the spring, only for the driver to be as bad as it has been. I'd much rather it that way as there's no club he can fix quicker than driver, so watch for him if he starts well. McIlroy has said he just needs to get something going early on and on a course like this it may be that simple, especially if he's motivated at all by Johnson's display. It's been far too long since Rory did something similar and he's won from this sort of position in the market many times before.

It's difficult to forgive Adam Scott and Jason Day after their displays last week, and the latter may struggle to turn things around quickly without a coach watching on. Day will have to scope out Olympia Fields like everyone else and his approach play was so poor last week that he could just have too much on his plate. Scott is much preferred, but he's the same price despite now arriving at a course where he missed the cut in 2003 and hasn't visited since.

In truth it's all rather uninspiring at the top and with Hideki Matsuyama's warming putter not tempting enough, the rest of my selections are outsiders who can give us a run at the places at big odds.

First, BUBBA WATSON might just have his ideal conditions here, virtually all of his best form having come when scoring is pitched right between US Open-tough and resort-style easy.

That description could apply to the Masters, the Travelers, the events he's won at Riviera and Torrey Pines, the WGC-HSBC Champions out in China, the Zurich Classic and even the course upon which he won the Match Play, so in fact Watson's entire career has been built on the mid-tier conditions which I suspect we'll get.

Clearly, his length off the tee has been a major weapon across all of these and his record on bentgrass greens is also very good, so there's plenty of evidence that Olympia Fields may well be the type of course he takes to. And while not the force of old, Bubba remains highly competitive when he does get his conditions, as he showed us when placing at a couple of his old haunts in the spring.

More recently, his best form had coincided with tougher conditions until last week's share of 18th at a course where he'd managed just one top-10 finish in 13 previous visits. Had it not been for one costly shot at the 16th on Sunday it could well have been his best effort yet and, combined with 25th in Memphis and a reasonable performance in the PGA, there are hints of very good form.

Watson led the field off-the-tee at Southwind and his irons have been solid the last twice, enough to rank inside the top 10 in greens, so if the putter switch he made last week does pay off - it was in and out as he ranked 41st - then the left-hander could be in the mix.

"For this whole year I've had a few top-10s (and) I think I've hit it really nicely," he said when asked to sum up 2020 last Thursday. "Hit some putts here and there. I've dabbled with some putters, and now I've got my breathing down so hopefully we're off and running."

On the last point, it was fascinating to see Watson give such an emotional interview after one opening round as he opened up about the measures he's taking to remain competitive. For someone who has never had a coach, the fact he's asked Claude Harmon to take a look at the swing and is also working with a breathing expert suggests he's serious about prolonging his career, perhaps no surprise with two visits to Augusta National coming up in quick succession.

Overall the message is that with top-25 finishes in his last two non-majors (his record in the US Open and US PGA has been abysmal from 2011 on), he's playing some solid stuff. It's worth rolling the dice and hoping that Olympia Fields lends itself to 'Bubba golf', in which case his quality driving, improved approach play and dedication to improving the rest could pay off in style.

Sticking with the theme, JASON KOKRAK is one of the best drivers around and he has a free run at this having sneaked in with an eagle at the final hole last week.

That was the final act of a superb final round, one in which his approach play was off-the-charts good - leaving DJ and the rest a long way behind. Kokrak's reward was 13th place to follow on from 15th in the Wyndham, and an extension of his season which may yet be prolonged to the very end.

Last year, the American reached East Lake for the first time and secured his very first Masters invite which means, after years of saying 'thanks but no thanks' when asked to visit the Holy Grail, he will be ticking that box on merit this November.

Getting to the TOUR Championship again would mean he can have another crack come April and though he needs a minor miracle, his tee-to-green game may well power another big week in the BMW Championship.

Kokrak has previous in the Playoffs having gone 7-8-17 and 12-19-9 so last week's performance has marked our cards, and while yet to win on the PGA Tour he has gone mighty close at some tough courses. Indeed his final-round charge threatened to steal the title at Colonial while he's also hit the frame at Congressional, Riviera, Bay Hill and Bethpage, confirming he does not want a shootout.

"I think the putter let me down this week, but been grinding pretty hard with it. Once that thing heats up, we'll be pretty dangerous here in the near future," he said on Sunday, before his place in the BMW field had been confirmed, adding: "I would love to get a chance at that golf course. I've heard it's a great venue, and I hope I can get in and do some more damage and be on that bubble again like I was last year.

"My brother lives in Chicago, as well. I've got a lot of family ties. My uncle grew up in Chicago. I would love to be back for the BMW and looking forward to it."

Kokrak did get his spot on the back of another excellent display of ball-striking and he looks a strong each-way candidate.

Returning to the Australians, CAMERON SMITH has to go in the staking plan after his best ball-striking week of the year in Boston. In fact, it was his strongest ball-striking display since the 2017 Wyndham, with his best-ever figures recorded in Illinois at the previous year's John Deere Classic, just to underline how much of an improvement he showed.

It came at a course he likes, granted, but Smith has won a tough event this year thanks to his stellar short-game and if everything clicks at the same time, he may be able to overcome a lack of punch from the tee. He's certainly got form in the Playoffs having been third on two occasions from just eight starts, and top-five finishes at the US Open and the Masters serve as an indication of what this gritty youngster can do.

He ought to be egged on a little bit by Curtis Luck's breakthrough on the Korn Ferry Tour, too. Smith's victory in the Sony Open came during a golden run of Aussie winners all over the world, and on the back of his own high-class Presidents Cup performance which is another positive when it comes to stepping up under difficult conditions against the best players in the world.

At 26th in the FedEx Cup he's got a job to do here to make it to East Lake and at 52nd in the world, there's going to be no lack of focus. His coach said prior to the PGA Championship that Smith will come good as the season really hots up and, having played solidly there before a big step forward in The Northern Trust, he may well be proved right.

Finally, while by no means keen to go heavy after a chastening week, I can't leave ROBBY SHELTON out of the staking plan and, in a 70-runner field and with good place terms, he too is worth backing.

Shelton has bags of experience at Olympia Fields having played well in a couple of those collegiate events, including when finishing T1 in 2013 when DeChambeau was behind. He also played the Junior Ryder Cup here in 2012, outperforming teammates Scottie Scheffler and Cameron Champ, so as with Hovland he has a very small but not insignificant advantage compared with most weeks where he has to learn on the job.

Once one of the most talked-about talents in US college golf, Shelton hasn't quite enjoyed the immediate success of some of his contemporaries, but I'm very sweet on him. He's shown flourishes of real quality and they've come recently, with third place in the 3M Open and 13th in last week's event.

As he had in Minnesota, Shelton flew home in Massachusetts, playing his final six holes in six-under including a hole-out eagle at the 15th. It was enough - just - to get him into the BMW Championship and he has the talent to ride the wave at a course he doesn't have to learn from scratch. Shocks in these events are rare but at 250/1 and with as many as seven places on offer, let's take a very small chance.

Posted at 1920 BST on 24/08/20

Click here for Ben Coley's tipping record

Responsible gambling

We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.

Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.