Ryder Cup tips: Ben Coley's preview and best bets for Sunday's singles matches
Jon Rahm can put Europe on course for a resounding Ryder Cup win by taking the first singles match. Ben Coley previews the final session.
Golf betting tips: Ryder Cup singles matches
1pt treble Rahm, Cantlay & Aberg at 6.73/1 (bet365 - William Hill 13/2)
1pt double Schauffele & Fleetwood at 2.21/1 (William Hill)
0.5pt five-fold at 20/1 (General - William Hill & bet365 23/1)
Yet again, Sunday of the Ryder Cup arrives with one team holding a commanding advantage. You have to go all the way back to 2002 for a match perfectly poised at 8-8 and a 10-5.5.5 lead for Europe leaves them within four points of victory.
Of course, this needn't mean a drama-free conclusion. Celtic Manor in 2010 and Medinah in 2012 are fine examples of what might still happen if the United States, who have looked down and out all week, are able to use Patrick Cantlay's extraordinary finish as a springboard to the greatest comeback the event has ever seen.
I doubt it. It's easy to get carried away with Medinah comparisons following Saturday's finish, and to buy into this notion that Rory McIlroy's anger reveals a rattled European team room, but that feels like a particularly long reach to me. McIlroy was livid for two reasons – a perceived transgression and the fact he and Matt Fitzpatrick didn't close the door on Cantlay – but Europe is a long way from panic mode.
Remember, they began the day with a five-point lead, and they ended the day with a five-point lead. Strip away the details, cut out the noise, and that's a result. The United States were thumped 4-0 in the opening session and all the talk was of crisis. They had a better chance then that they do now and I think it's beyond them.
As for pre-tournament bets, on the face of it they took a late hit with McIlroy on course to secure top-scorer honours with a session to spare. He now leads four players by half a point which means he will land top overall points scorer bets at 9/1 if he beats Sam Burns, which he is odds-on to do.
Max Homa, our sole selection in the top USA betting, also leads and will win if he can beat Fitzpatrick, so things are generally in a good place. Europe to lead after every session and win, advised at 9/2, is now effectively about a 1/10 shot, and a margin of 1-3 points looks more likely than it did early on Saturday when 4-6 would've been favourite.
If McIlroy and Homa can both win their matches it will have been a nicely profitable week. Above all else though I hope Europe go and get the job done. They've been terrific.
Rahm v Scheffler
Sunday's singles begin with a rematch, Scheffler having thumped Rahm at Whistling Straits when the Spaniard had been tasked with carrying a beaten side. The circumstances this time are very different, Scheffler last seen suffering a record 9&7 defeat which ended with him in years; Rahm refreshed following an afternoon off.
If Europe were to lose then Rahm's omission from Saturday afternoon would be called into question but more likely is that he gets them off to an ideal start. He has been superb all week, producing a career's worth of memorable Ryder Cup shots, and he's the right man to go and lead from the front.
Verdict: Rahm 3&2
Hovland v Morikawa
Another rematch, this time between two college friends who halved their rookie match two years ago. Just as was the case then, Hovland hasn't missed a session and while a 2-1-1 record looked like being better, only Rahm has outperformed him on the European side and that's despite these two actually putting quite poorly.
Morikawa meanwhile bounced back in Saturday's fourballs, beating Hovland, and his long-game was sensational. Should that remain then this could be really interesting but it's the Norwegian who looks the more assured putter, or at least he had until the afternoon, and I still feel this is a better course for him.
Verdict: Hovland 2&1
Rose v Cantlay
It's been fantastic to see Rose play so well and enjoy two massive moments on the 16th and 18th greens so far, both times in fourballs alongside Bob MacIntyre. Playing the role of mentor and cheerleader really has worked for Rose, who turned down the LIV millions for this exact reason, and winning a singles point isn't beyond him.
That said, Cantlay was the star of the show for the USA on Saturday night, singlehandedly earning a point which kept their heart beating even if you'll have to listen very carefully for a pulse. If there is a criticism it's that he's more invested in himself than the team but that's no bad thing here and he was impressive on debut two years ago.
Verdict: Cantlay 4&2
McIlroy v Burns
As mentioned we've a vested interest here and I don't mind the draw. Burns is the reigning Match Play champion and ranks third among the US side this week in terms of overall performance levels, but that's all been down to his short-game and he's vulnerable to a peak form McIlroy.
The one major concern is what's left in the tank. McIlroy has played all four sessions so far, three of his matches went to the 17th or 18th, and his car park episode might leave him with nothing left to give. He emptied in 2016 and was beaten in Paris in 2018, so I do have that nagging fear of a repeat.
I'll give him the vote because he's a better, more experienced player, on home soil, and is hitting the ball to a much higher standard than his opponent, but wouldn't be backing him at the odds.
Verdict: McIlroy 3&2
Fitzpatrick v Homa
Homa has been the undisputed star of the US side. Who'd have thought that might be someone who appears to consider it a genuine privilege, and who played tournament golf in September? Having earned 2.5 points from four matches, his overall record for the US now reads 6-1-1, and there's a good chance that reads 7-1-1 come the evening.
That being said, should he be odds-on? After all, he's playing a major champion who has the benefit of home advantage and who really should make a fearsome opponent in singles. It's not happened for Fitzpatrick so far and that's despite two kind draws, but he's a different player now and won't give this up cheaply.
As with the McIlroy match, I'll take the superior long-game but odds-on about the American holds little appeal.
Verdict: Homa 1up
Hatton v Harman
A low-key contender for match of the day as the Open champion comes up against Hatton, who is 0-2-0 in singles so far but, like Fitzpatrick, is a more accomplished player now. These are two fierce competitors and it's a shame they won't generate much TV coverage from this slot.
As for how the match goes, perhaps all the way is the answer. Hatton holds the edge in terms of their respective performances this week and is of course unbeaten, but Harman has shown time and again how difficult he is to pin down. If you're looking to back a halved match, this might be your best option.
Verdict: Match halved
Aberg v Koepka
In a sentence I can't believe I'm writing, one unthinkable as recently as June, Aberg is fancied to beat Koepka, in the process becoming the first person to do so in a Ryder Cup singles match.
Koepka's record, and his selfishness, are reasons to respect the five-time major champion, but his form since May has been generally poor and that's continued this week. No part of his game has fired and he's been especially bad off the tee; Aberg, by contrast, has quickly established himself as a driver of the very highest calibre.
The Swede has done well on debut without producing the display some perhaps hoped for, the bar of expectation arguably set too high, but at the risk of falling into that trap I was really taken with the way he stuck at it in defeat on Saturday afternoon. He might yet be in the headlines as it's possible he seals victory for Europe from this slot.
Verdict: Aberg 4&3
Straka v Thomas
The general view appears to be that Thomas has been let down by Spieth this week, the pair managing just half a point from three matches, but it's worth noting how poor Thomas was in the Saturday fourballs. DataGolf have his performance as considerably the worst of all 16 players and it was spread across the bag.
It remains very difficult to get a handle on the state of his game but despite that display, and Straka's singles win at the Hero Cup back in January, Thomas deserves the benefit of the doubt. He certainly produced some good stuff over his first two matches and can make it a perfect 3-0-0 in Ryder Cup singles if back in that sort of form.
Verdict: Thomas 3&2
Hojgaard v Schauffele
Schauffele failing to earn a point would've been a big price at the beginning of the week but any backers are entitled to feel disappointed by this draw, as Hojgaard has been one of Europe's weaker players. In fact from tee-to-green he's been by some distance the worst, so Schauffele has no excuses bar his putter.
That being said, I'm a longtime admirer of Hojgaard. It was interesting to see how disappointed he was after he and Fleetwood lost on Saturday afternoon and a word or two from Jose Maria Olazabal will have done him the world of good. Chances are he loses but he'll be back. And if he can get as far at the 16th, perhaps he can surprise a few.
Verdict: Schauffele 5&3
Lowry v Spieth
Although Thomas was even worse in the Saturday fourballs, Spieth's long-game has been atrocious so far this week and he'll likely lose if that continues. I've seen very little to be positive about and regular readers may by now be well aware that his singles record across this and the Presidents Cup is very poor.
Of course, he did go 5-0-0 in the latter competition last year and perhaps he'll continue to improve upon his so far meagre returns in the format, against a player in Lowry who lost at Whistling Straits. However, the Irishman is hitting the ball much better and if he can avoid the odd Spieth spell, he can win.
Verdict: Lowry 2&1
Fleetwood v Fowler
If things do get tight, which I don't anticipate they will, then this is where Europe might put to bed any concerns. Fowler has reportedly been unwell this week and hasn't played since the first session, when he was poor. His singles record reads 1-2-1 and while fresh, he's a player nobody should fear.
Fleetwood, who halved his match at Whistling Straits having been a spent force in Paris, has played really well this week; so well that he almost manage to salvage a big deficit on Saturday afternoon when his inexperienced partner was struggling. Every part of his game looks superior to Fowler's at the moment.
Verdict: Fleetwood 6&5
MacIntyre v Clark
These two were among the favourites to be sent out last and the market was bang on the money. MacIntyre has struggled, as he had been coming in, although he's one of just five unbeaten players – and Clark is another of them. Golf, eh?
Clearly, both owe plenty to Saturday's partners and I wouldn't expect a particularly high-quality match. If anything I'd favour MacIntyre at the prices, who I feel could be that bit more focused even if Europe get the job done early.
Going unbeaten and earning 2.5 points from three would be a fine debut even if the data says he's had plenty of help, and we've seen how good he can be with his own ball in this format.
Verdict: MacIntyre 2&1
Posted at 2100 BST on 30/09/23
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