Free golf betting tips: Final-round preview of Farmers Insurance Open

Golf betting tips: Farmers Insurance Open, Sunday January 31

2pts Patrick Reed to win at 7/2

1pt e.w. Xander Schauffele at 28/1 (1/4 1,2,3)

Halfway through his third round on Saturday it looked as though PATRICK REED had taken control of the Farmers Insurance Open as he stood on the 10th tee with a four-shot lead. Whether coincidence or not though, after obtaining a controversial free drop in relation to an embedded lie the former Masters champion made a series of uncharacteristic errors over the following four holes, which resulted in his lead evaporating.

Fortunately for Reed though with all those around him also struggling on the back nine he managed, after missing from two feet for birdie on 17, to steel himself and make a birdie on 18 for a share of the 54-hole lead with Carlos Ortiz, who fired a best-of-the-day 66.

An eight-time winner on the PGA Tour including his triumph at Augusta, despite his wobble Reed will be a tough nut to crack. One of the grittiest players out there, he has an excellent record when holding the lead or co-lead on the PGA Tour through 54 holes, converting on five out of seven occasions.

With any other player you could perhaps be concerned that with a rules controversy arguably over shadowing their third round, that it would have a negative effect on them going in to Sunday, however we know enough about Reed now to assume that if anything it will have the opposite effect and spur him on. With his great record as a closer I am happy to bring him on-side at the general 7/2 on offer.

While Ortiz is certainly more than capable in this kind of company, something he showed when seeing of Dustin Johnson in Houston at the back-end of last year, I suspect he will struggle to back up Saturday’s 66, which saw him hole out from off the green twice, once from just under 60 feet for par on the ninth and again from just over 35 feet for birdie on the 17th.

Joining Reed and Ortiz in Sunday’s final three-ball is one of five players sat two back on eight-under, the hugely talented Sam Burns. Coincidentally, he was alongside Ortiz when the Mexican got the job done in Houston, and he looks a player destined to get over the line on Tour sooner rather than later. However consistency is something he is yet to master and having finished with a bogey on the final hole he is hard to fancy with any great confidence to bag his debut win at a course which usually exposes such players.

Alongside him are Jon Rahm, Adam Scott, Viktor Hovland and Lanto Griffin and Rahm in particular will, you would think, be licking his chops at the thought of chasing down Reed and Ortiz on the course where he bagged his maiden Tour win and where he's gone close twice since.

Stupid as it may sound though for a player of his stature and with his record here, who currently sits in third place, I do have reservations as to whether his game is quite where it needs to be to win this, something borne out by the fact that he made four bogeys in his 72 on Saturday, finding only six fairways. It may just be that he is still not quite comfortable with his new clubs and he looks short enough.

Readers of Ben Coley’s pre-tournament preview will most likely be rooting for his selection Adam Scott, however it may well be that they do so from behind the sofa when the Aussie is standing over a close-range putt, as he was really struggling with the putter on Saturday, not even threatening the hole on at least a couple of occasions. Throw in some struggles off the tee in his 72, which saw him make five bogeys and a double to offset his five birdies and an eagle, and the Aussie isn’t for me.

Completing the quintet are Hovland and Griffin. Hovland, it goes without saying, is heading to the very top echelons of the game and he showed yet again what a class act he is when shooting an incredible 65 in the toughest of conditions at the South Course on Friday, a round, which was four shots better than anyone else could manage. Having closed with two straight birdies on Saturday to salvage a 73 he would be my pick of those who head in to Sunday two back, although the impressive Griffin also makes some appeal.

Instead though in an event that has seen five winners come from three back or more in the last 10 years, I shall head further down the leaderboard for a second selection to go alongside Reed, with XANDER SCHAUFFELE big enough to justify a roll of the dice.

Schauffele, whose last win was over two years ago at the 2019 Sentry Tournament of Champions, has passed up several gilt-edged opportunities in the interim period including two 54-hole leads last year.

Although seemingly uncomfortable when in the lead going in to Sunday, where Schauffele has historically thrived is from off the pace and with his four wins coming from five, three, two and three shots back, he will no doubt be in his comfort zone starting Sunday four behind.

A native of La Jolla, Schauffele knows this course like the back of his hand, however prior to this year his record here has strangely been very poor with a 25th place alongside four missed cuts the best he has managed.

This time around though, perhaps freed up by the lack of the normal home fan pressure in the gallery, the 27-year-old old has finally clicked on a course which really should suit his game, and he was impressive in all departments on his way to a bogey-free 68 on Saturday.

With three each-way places on offer in an event known for a Sunday comeback, Schauffele looks primed to be the one to post an early score and at 28/1 he's worth getting on-side.

Posted at 0930 GMT on 31/01/21

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