Ian Richards looks at the state of play in the Genesis Invitational, where Rory McIlroy is favourite at the halfway stage.
Recommended bets
0.5pt e.w. Vaughn Taylor at 40/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4)
0.5pt e.w. Chez Reavie at 66/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4)
0.25pt e.w. Si Woo Kim at 150/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4)
0.25pt e.w. James Hahn at 150/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4)
We started off with nine of the top ten players in the world at the Genesis Invitational, and at the cut mark we have lost only one in the shape of Justin Thomas.
However, if recent history is to be repeated at Riviera only one of the remaining eight is likely to lift the trophy. Here are the last 10 winners and their positions at halfway:
- 2019 Holmes 3rd (one back)
- 2018 Watson 6th (three)
- 2017 Johnson 1st (one ahead)
- 2016 Watson 3rd (two back)
- 2015 Hahn 11th (four)
- 2014 Watson 40th (eight)
- 2013 Merrick 3rd (one)
- 2012 Haas 11th (four)
- 2011 Baddeley 2nd (two)
- 2010 Stricker 2nd (one)
Apart from Bubba Watson in 2014 you really need to be up with the pace, at least in the top 11 and no more than four behind. It’s not an exact science but it makes sense to look at those that fall within those parameters and with the course likely to get faster and harder that’s where I will be concentrating my thoughts.
Only 10 players are within four shots of the lead which makes the job slightly easier as there are another 10 players tied for 11th, who are five shots behind the leader and have given themselves work to do.
Matt Kuchar takes a two-shot lead into the weekend but in 13 attempts around here has never finished higher than eighth. He's a serial high finisher who in recent years has become better at closing out events but he simply isn’t for me at a best price of 5/1.
Having arrived here as world number one, Rory McIlroy remains the justifiable favourite but you don’t make a lot of money backing 9/4 shots with 36 holes to play - even if they are McIlroy.
Playing with those two in the final group is Harold Varner, still a PGA Tour maiden, and his form has come from nowhere having missed his first four cuts of 2020. He will probably hang around the top of the leaderboard but I find it hard to see him winning for the first time at this venue.
Similar comments apply to the promising Wyndham Clark, much touted as a surefire winner. Until I see conclusive proof I won’t be backing him at a short price and he faded from a similarly promising position in Phoenix recently.
Adam Scott confirmed in his post-round interview that this is his favourite course on the PGA Tour, cursing the fact that it comes so soon in the schedule - in fact, it's his first start of the year. Scott shook off the rust in round one and shot a brilliant 64 on Friday, but we all know it is hard to follow up a low one.
Also nagging in the back of my mind is the thought that it is now four years since he won on the PGA Tour and while he's unlikely to go far over the weekend, Scott has had plenty of chances to win here since he took a 36-hole edition on debut.
I am a great believer in thinking outside the box and my tongue in cheek quip earlier in the week on Twitter that Korean players might be inspired by Parasite winning best film at the Oscars may oddly have mileage. They have a huge sense of national pride but Sung Kang has only the one PGA tour victory to his name in 168 starts and that largely came courtesy of a 61 in the second round of last year's Byron Nelson.
Vaughn Taylor, by contrast, may be the forgotten man. The 43-year-old has three wins on Tour, all on the west coast, and would dearly love to get another crack at the Masters at home in Augusta. He finished ninth last year and could well be a surprise package over the weekend, with 40/1 well worth taking.
Chez Reavie is another to get on-side at a slightly bigger price having shown signs of encouragement both this week and last. He's not had his customary strong start to the year on courses that suit and only has a seventh to his name at Riviera, but he can play tough courses well and may prove the type capable of kicking on having finally won his second title more than a decade after his first.
Russell Henley and Rafa Cabrera Bello complete the top 10 but the former has shown very little lately and Cabrera Bello has rarely looked like winning on the PGA Tour, something he's found hard enough in Europe over the years.
Having gone through those 10 we have to remember that those on four-under do include the likes of Jon Rahm, Justin Rose, Bryson Dechambeau and Dustin Johnson. I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of them put in a Bubba-style weekend a la 2014 - they're all much better placed than he was - but I find it impossible to pick any one from those four at the prices so I will return to my daft Korean theory.
Si Woo Kim changed coach to Claude Harmon last year, and has won a highly competitive Players Championship from six back and 16th place. He's hard to predict but that's factored into the prices and he's the type who could make a big move today.
James Hahn, a Korean-American born in Seoul, has won this before from 11th and four back and also at the tough Quail Hollow from 13th and five back. He can find form from seemingly nowhere and that's exactly what he's appeared to do throughout the first two rounds.
Both are worth having on-side to small stakes to defy the stats which suggest the top 10 is the place to focus on, and among those it's Reavie and Taylor who are flying under the radar.
Posted at 0940 GMT on 15/02/20