RBC Heritage final round preview and betting tips from Ian Richards

Recommended bets

1pt e.w Michael Thompson at 66/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4)

1pt e.w Andrew Landry at 125/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4)

2pts Matt Fitzpatrick to beat Ian Poulter in two ball at evens

We enter the final round at the RBC Heritage today with what can only be described as potentially a great 18-hole scrap on our hands with a packed leaderboard and any number of players capable of taking the title. There are four players tied for the lead on -15, three a shot back on -14, eight two back on -13, six on -12 and to be honest, you couldn’t really rule out the eight players on -11.

With six players shooting eight under par 63’s yesterday before the later afternoon conditions got a little tougher I can see a similar scenario playing out today. To win a player is going to have to go low.

Harbour Town is one of the few courses on the PGA tour that has continually thrown up winners who have come from off the pace in the final round. The quandary we have this week is the field is undoubtedly a higher quality than in most years and some players are normally fatigued the week after The Masters (it’s traditional slot).

We have to go back to 2012 and Carl Pettersson to find the last player to win from the front on Sunday. The last three leaders Dustin Johnson, Ian Poulter and Jason Dufner shot 77, 75 and 76 to fall to 28th, 7th and 11th respectively! Throw into the mix Brandt Snedeker winning from six back and Stewart Cink incredibly from nine back in 2004 and it makes it an intriguing final round to consider.

So with the last seven winners coming from four, four, four, three, four, six and two strokes behind this is one week when one shouldn’t be afraid to scan down the leaderboard. However, this week you could throw the proverbial blanket over the top of the leaderboard so the key maybe how much traffic a player has to overcome. If I was to write an article about all those in contention it would be more like a short novel.

The old adage of “it’s hard to back up a low one” is prominent in my mind – just look at Vince India on this week's Korn Ferry tour; -10 third day and +4 final day. Those who shot an eight under on Saturday will maybe struggle to go low again today which is what will be required. Throw in the fact that the weather is due to be warmer and windier today and we really have a puzzle.

To my mind the best approach is to pick out a couple of players who know how to win, who are a big price and could land some each way money rather than pick out a short priced player to land the spoils

It has now been seven years since Michael Thompson gained his solo PGA tour title at the Honda Classic (though he has landed a Korn Ferry playoff title since). He birdied his last two holes yesterday to get to -13 and has only had two bogeys this week. If he can avoid the bogeys again today and fire in another six birdies as he did in each of the first and third rounds he won’t be far off the top of the leaderboard.

Andrew Landry now has two career titles having won the American Express title in January to add to the Texas Open he won in 2018. What catches my eye is that both wins have come on his second start back after a break which is the scenario we have this week.

In all honesty that unusual stat could easily have been three wins in identical circumstances as he should have won the CareerBuilder Challenge in 2018 as well. If you are looking for further proof, he won on the Korn Ferry tour in the Bahamas in 2017 on his second start after the winter break. His scores are showing a nice trend this week 68, 67, 66 and if he can maintain that sequence he could challenge for his third tour title.

If you are looking for a final round two ball bet, I have had my mind all week on opposing Ian Poulter should he be lurking around the leaderboard. In the last three years he has sat 2nd 1st and 5th on Sunday morning but fallen to 10th 7th and 11th with rounds of 73, 75, 73. His opponent today is fellow Englishman Matt Fitzpatrick and at evens I would take the young protagonist to outscore the elder statesman.

Posted at 1200 BST on 21/06/20

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