Puerto Rico Open betting preview and tips from Ben Coley

Recommended bets

2pts e.w. Cameron Davis at 28/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Martin Laird at 50/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Ben Martin at 60/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5)

1pt e.w. Chase Seiffert at 80/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Will Gordon at 150/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5)

0.5pt e.w. Michael Gligic at 225/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

When looking at the Puerto Rico Open and its smorgasbord of golfing nomads, I'm acutely aware of the risk of being the guy on Countdown who asks Carol Vorderman for 'six small ones' just so they can go home and tell their mates that they DIDN'T EVEN ASK FOR A BIG NUMBER OFF OF CAROL!!!!1

Most people want one from the top. It makes life easier, dramatically improves your chance of solving the equation, and with that increases the number of people who can play along from home. Six small ones is antagonistic, the work of some who, at let's say precisely 34 years of age, is still desperately trying to impress someone unspecified.

And yet, secretly, I always wanted the person to go with six small ones. It's a challenge! Why can't impossible puzzles be fun? If you don't want to make it, go now, yeah? Save us all a bit of time, yeah? If you don't think you can cut it.

That's probably why I'm not interested in backing Viktor Hovland at 11/1, or taking 16/1 about Alex Noren, or hoping that this might final be the day for Patrick Rodgers at 25/1. It's why I'm willing to overlook the strong statistical profile of Matthew NeSmith, ignore the hint dropped loudly by Scott Brown last weekend, and sit back and watch while Maverick McNealy continues his ascent without support this time.

Six small ones. It has to be the way to go in a tournament won by Martin Trainer last year, the world number 626 in 2017, and the one in which Alex Cejka finally earned his first PGA Tour title in 2015. For every Tony Finau, the 2016 champion, there are quite literally two Michael Bradleys. There's more than one crapshoot this week: the one in the casino near to the golf course, and the one which begins with Thursday's opening tee-shots.

Top of my list is BEN MARTIN, who has already won in Las Vegas and is worth another roll of the dice here.

Martin is the sort of no-frills golfer that tends to populate the leaderboard in Puerto Rico, and he's done so before having led the all-around ranking on his way to third place in 2014, ending a sequence of missed cuts on his second crack at the PGA Tour.

He played some good stuff for a while in 2011, too, opening 70-66 to lie seventh at halfway before a poor weekend saw him fall down to a position which failed to reflect how well he'd taken to the place.

"I like the course," he confirmed when seeing the job through on his return. "I was down here a couple of years ago and had a pretty good tournament.

"I don't remember exactly what I shot, but I know I had some low score here or there, one or two of the days, so I have some good memories here. The wind usually blows, so you gotta strike it solid. And then the greens are good.

"I played the college event in Rio Mar four years, so this is my sixth time down here. I enjoy it every time I come.

"I think being a little closer to home, being in the southeast, Florida swing, Puerto Rico... (I am) a little more comfortable down here."

That Florida point is an important one, as we've left behind the west coast now and, as touched upon elsewhere, we should expect to see a reshuffling of certain names on the leaderboards.

Martin, who is from South Carolina and went to Clemson, is one of those who could well step up and it's no coincidence that his best efforts out west have come away from poa annua greens, such as in Las Vegas and in Reno.

His best form outside of winning is courtesy of fourth place at the PLAYERS Championship, third at the Heritage and fifth at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and these are all good pointers this week - particularly the latter.

As such, his form this year, while just shy of the requirements to fulfil his Major Medical Extension, reads well. Martin was 45th in the Sony Open, 29th in the AmEx, missed the cut in the Farmers and then played some good stuff to finish 25th at Pebble Beach.

The last two winners of this were somewhat out of the blue, but both had gone nicely over by the coast at Pebble before making the trip across to Puerto Rico, and a tune-up in those cross-winds certainly ought to help.

Martin has actually been bubbling away since making his comeback last summer, 20th in Mexico another nice pointer for this, and in January he gave former Puerto Rico winner Chesson Hadley a thrashing when they practiced together.

There have been plenty of signs lately that he's working towards something good, and the drop in grade combined with a move east, to a course he really likes, could see things come together here.

There are a few more players who caught the eye at Pebble Beach, Hadley included along with Tim Wilkinson, who shot a second-round 63 here on his last visit, is at his best by the sea, and was sixth on his debut in the event way back in 2008.

He's exactly the sort of player who can put experience to good use, but I find it hard to take 66/1 about someone who has played in almost 400 events without yet winning, even one who was a little unfortunate to lose a play-off on the Korn Ferry Tour last year.

That was at the LECOM Health Challenge, where CHASE SEIFFERT finished third, and it's the younger man who is preferred at a slightly bigger price.

Seiffert is still seeking his first win, too, but he's only had one full season on the Korn Ferry Tour and this will be just his 12th start with a full PGA Tour card in his pocket.

Already, he's hinted that he's capable of going really close at this level, first when bagging a top-10 finish as a Monday qualifier at the Travelers Championship in 2018 and more recently with a string of eye-catching performances in 2020.

Seiffert was fourth through 54 holes of the AmEx when I put him up at 300/1, he was second after the first round at Pebble Beach recently, and he's on a cuts-made streak of seven events which is a clear indicator that he's in a good place.

All this has been achieved away from home as he's a born-and-raised Floridian, like last year's runner-up Daniel Berger who he has played plenty of golf with. He's been hitting the ball really well, such as when ranking seventh in strokes-gained approach last time, and he looks set to improve for these Florida-like conditions.

Seiffert is of a similar profile to NeSmith, and while the latter has a win to his name and has performed a little better this season, there's probably not much as much between them as the market suggests.

Matt Every would've been in the staking plan as a two-time Bay Hill winner who was bang in the mix before a nightmare Sunday at Pebble Beach, but he's withdrawn to save us all the stress and that leaves MARTIN LAIRD flying the flag for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Derek Lamely, Cejka, Hadley and Bradley are all past winners here who boast some eye-catching Bay Hill form and Steve Marino probably should've won both, with Laird denying him in the Arnold Palmer back in 2011 before Finau won their play-off here five years later.

Laird has three wins on the PGA Tour and is a cut above most of these at his best, and while he's clearly not at that level now he has been making cuts lately and showing flashes of form.

Crucially, he's shown that dropping in grade makes the world of difference. The Scotsman has three top-10 finishes over his last 30-odd events, and they came on the three occasions he stepped away from the main circuit to play an opposite event like this one.

Granted, this is a different test to the Barracuda (seventh), the Barbasol (sixth) and the Sanderson Farms (seventh), but the key appears to be that he's good at being a big fish in a small pond.

This time last year I put up Aaron Baddeley for similar reasons and he finished second at 28/1. Laird, almost twice that price, has a similar profile and his Florida form extends to second at Bay Hill, fifth at Copperhead and 10th at Doral.

The one big negative is that he did miss the cut here in 2008 as an out-of-sorts rookie. Twelve years later, his form might not look much better but his credentials certainly are and I'm happy to chance him at the odds.

Adam Schenk is interesting, having been outscored only by the winner over the final 54 holes of last year's renewal. Schenk began his debut here shooting 75, following it with rounds of 69, 69 and 67 to climb to a solid share of 16th.

He looks tidy enough but I'm not sure there's any juice in 40/1 and would rather chance MICHAEL GLIGIC at as big as 225/1.

One of the themes in this event has been that while winners haven't been easy to find, most have shown that they have what it takes to cross the line in front at some stage previously.

Hadley and Finau were plainly standout graduates, D.A. Points had won at Pebble Beach, even Cejka had at least won four times on the European Tour and once in Colombia on what was then the Web.com Tour.

Trainer had also won twice at the lower level before striking here so a look at those who picked up silverware on last year's Korn Ferry Tour is warranted. Unfortunately, most of them are struggling at the moment and Gligic himself is hardly setting the world alight.

However, his ball-striking has improved markedly over the last three tournaments, during which he's picked up strokes off the tee and on approach, and the timing of this event could hardly be better.

Gligic is good friends with Nick Taylor, who won at Pebble Beach a fortnight ago, and it wouldn't be a surprise were he to find encouragement in that and step up. Just last week, Taylor's old college roommate contended at Riviera, and the glut of Australian winners this year suggests they've taken inspiration from each other.

It is speculative, of course, and there's no telling whether it'll be of any benefit to Gligic. What's certain, though, is that he's played better lately, he won in Panama a year ago last week, and this wide-open event represents a good opportunity to chance him.

Some will also consider it a good time to chance the potential stars in this field, and Hovland isn't the only one. Davis Thompson is the world's fourth-best amateur according to the rankings, behind three more familiar names who are considered to be heading to the top.

Takumi Kanaya and Chun An Yu both contended in the Australian Open late last year, the former having won on the Japan Tour, while Cole Hammer is thought to be a real stud who is going to be top of a lot of lists when he turns professional later this year.

Thompson, in fourth, has attracted less attention, and yet he was a nine-shot winner of the Jones Cup a couple of weeks ago. He's also shown his hand at this level, four sub-70 rounds enough for 23rd place in the RSM Classic, where he struck the ball seriously well.

He has to be considered at 80/1, even if the RSM Classic and the Jones Cup are both played at his Sea Island base, but more tempting is 150/1 chance WILL GORDON, who came through the Monday qualifier.

Gordon was 10th in the aforementioned RSM Classic and has backed it up with 21st in the Farmers Insurance Open, where he led the field in greens hit and played the South Course in five-under over the weekend.

That's seriously impressive, form to match just about any player in this field, and it puts him ahead of Thompson at this stage. Gordon has been professional since last summer having reached six in the World Amateur Golf Rankings, and he's already locked up a place at Korn Ferry Tour Finals later this year.

It has to be said that players of his profile aren't typically contenders in Puerto Rico, where a bit of nous goes a long way, but there have been exceptions (Jason Day, Bryson DeChambeau, Jordan Spieth) and I think he's entitled to be a heck of a lot shorter.

We had a Monday qualifier winner last year in Texas and he already looks like he might be good enough to follow the lead of Corey Conners. Anything 100/1 or bigger is worth taking.

From a statistical perspective, Cameron Percy is another who makes a lot of sense. He flushed his way to 36th in the Farmers last time, ranking first in strokes-gained approach for the three measured rounds at the South, and it was a similar story when he finished 11th and seventh in successive weeks at the start of the season.

Percy might be the latest cab off the rank in this spell of Australian winners, but at 45 years old and with an ongoing wrist problem, I can't quite bring myself to back him. By contrast, I find his compatriot and namesake CAMERON DAVIS impossible to resist.

At 24, Davis has already won the Australian Open and cruised through the Korn Ferry Tour, where he won by a shot in Nashville a couple of years ago.

His rookie campaign on the PGA Tour didn't quite go to plan, but since finishing third behind Adam Scott in the Australian PGA Championship in December he's started to show what he can do with four good performances in as many starts so far this year.

Throughout all of them, from ninth in Hawaii to 38th at Pebble Beach, Davis has struck the ball really well. Only improvement with the putter is required to go close at this kind of level, and it's notable that he was 16th in this event last year when his overall form was not quite so strong.

Davis ranked seventh in ball-striking on debut in Puerto Rico, and was one of just seven players who broke 70 in both rounds at the weekend as he got to grips with things. He's a better player now, not all that far behind Hovland in terms of potential, and need only perform to the levels he's shown throughout the first six weeks of the year to be a contender.

Maybe it's worth taking one from the top after all, Carol.

Posted at 1050 GMT on 18/02/20

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