Presidents Cup betting tips: Ben Coley's preview and best bets
Xander Schauffele can cap a coming-of-age year with a dominant performance in the Presidents Cup, where the United States are worthy favourites.
Golf betting tips: Presidents Cup
3pts United States to win by 4-6 points at 4/1 (Sky Bet)
3pts Xander Schauffele top overall scorer at 10/1 (Sky Bet)
3pts Hideki Matsuyama top International scorer at 7/1 (General)
1pt Byeong Hun An top International scorer at 16/1 (bet365)
Team golf has been talked about a lot over the last two years and one thing we can almost all agree on is that, at its best, it can be about as engrossing as golf gets. My own definition requires meaningfulness, the kind that underpinned another fabulous Solheim Cup where favourites USA finally got the trophy back, the kind that already has some of us pondering Ryder Cup picks and pairings a year out from the next renewal at Bethpage.
Some would argue that the Presidents Cup lacks such meaning, and certainly it would be overdoing it to try and pass this off as something capable of standing shoulder-to-shoulder with those biennial clashes between the United States and Europe. Nevertheless, anyone watching will understand that this is no exhibition. In some ways, the one-sidedness helps ensure that the favourites are desperate not to be the ones who lose, and the underdogs always have something to chase.
I will look forward to switching blue for black and supporting the Internationals, this time led by Mike Weir for a return to Canada. With three countrymen on his team and plenty of US fans sure to turn out in support of Jim Furyk's men, we should get a wonderful atmosphere, intensified by the relatively small property within which Royal Montreal sits.
There is no doubt that the Internationals have been getting closer to ending their long wait for a second Presidents Cup. At times in both 2019 and 2022, it felt like they might just do it, despite facing imperious US sides. And at Royal Melbourne they probably should have: with so much in their favour, they led 9-5 with two sessions to play, eventually losing 16-14 having only managed to win two of 12 singles matches.
Quietly fancied that year but still unable to quite do enough, faith in the International side had dried up by the time Quail Hollow came around. It may surprise some to learn that they were priced at around 8/1 and while they stuck at it admirably, threatening to turn things around, the outcome was a resounding US win. The stars and stripes have now taken 12 of 14 renewals and nine in a row since 2003. Aussie stalwart Adam Scott is yet to win one.
This time around, the general consensus is that the International side is stronger than two years ago, and perhaps that the US might be a little weaker – despite featuring arguably the two best players in the world. With home advantage also a factor, they're considerably shorter than they were in 2022 and back at the sort of price we saw in 2019, when they were touching 3/1. It looks unlikely they'll quite drift to that price this time.
The course
Before we return to that outright market and the way to bet on the outcome, a word on the course. If you're not sure how important it really is when it comes to match play, there are a couple of compelling pieces of evidence to consider.
One is the 2018 Ryder Cup, dominated by a European side who not only knew Le Golf National, but knew all about the surgical way it has to be broken down. The US not only had that working against them, but appeared not to give too much thought to the nature of the course when adding four captain's picks.
The best way to summarise where they went wrong was Phil Mickelson's wild approach into water, which helped Francesco Molinari complete a flawless 5-0-0 week. Molinari's fairways-and-greens golf peaked at precisely the right time as he capped a dream, Open-winning year with by far his best performance in European colours.
Another example of how much the course counts comes from the WGC-Match Play, where in seven stagings in Austin, Kevin Kisner earned the reputation of an assassin. The truth of the matter is that as much as he may have enjoyed the format, he was playing at a quirky, Pete Dye-designed course not everyone handled as well as he did.
During this same time period, Kisner played in two Presidents Cups, both at home. He managed a grand total of half a point from clashes with Anirban Lahiri and Christiaan Bezuidenhout, and contributed just half a point at Quail Hollow two years ago. It seems more likely his specialism concerns certain golf courses than a certain format.
So, what of Royal Montreal?
Well, you could spend all day trying to find a more lopsided leaderboard than when last the Canadian Open was held here, in 2014. Tim Clark beat Jim Furyk and Justin Hicks that week, and come the end of the season their respective driving accuracy rankings, among 200-plus PGA Tour members, were second, fourth, and third.
First in fairways that year was David Toms, who just so happened to be the top-scoring player when last the Presidents Cup was held here, in 2007. Also playing a key role in that winning US side was Scott Verplank and he takes us back further still, to 2001, when he won the Canadian Open at Royal Montreal. Verplank was similarly accurate off the tee.
Royal Montreal's course and property manager says that 'aside from that and narrowing some fairways, there haven’t been any major changes to the golf course since the last Presidents Cup.' The tricky bit for punters is that while the course may not have changed, the sport certainly has. And as well as pondering pairings, it means we have to answer a difficult question: will accuracy still matter as much as it used to?
Who will win the Presidents Cup?
With plenty of rain around over the past few weeks, my suspicion is that it won't, at least not to anything like the same extent. And if it does, it's not as if this US team lacks straight drivers – Collin Morikawa, Russell Henley, Scottie Scheffler and Brian Harman are four of the top 20 on the PGA Tour.
As for home advantage, of course there really is no such thing for the Internationals, and in some ways Canada may lessen it. Yes, there are three Canadians who are sure to be roared on by the locals, but conditions won't be alien to the US players, which they were to some of them in Australia. Given that there will be plenty of US fans in attendance, it's hard to argue that the location increases the chances of an upset.
My conclusion therefore is that the Internationals look a bit short. They've more than halved in price from Quail Hollow, where they lost 17.5-12.5, and if there's value here it's with the favourites. I'll take them to win a reasonably tight match by a margin of 4-6 points, which is a 4/1 shot with Sky Bet and just a fraction shorter at 15/4 with bet365.
This covers scorelines of 17-13, 17.5-12.5 and 18-12 and I'd make them the three most likely, for all that from a spectatorial point of view, I'll be hoping the Internationals can somehow turn the tide.
Who will top-score for their sides?
Betting on top scorers in team competitions is complicated, as we have to ponder things like playing partners and strength in depth, while also acknowledging that we may need a bit of luck. No doubt we had some of that in siding with Rory McIlroy at the Ryder Cup, and with Jordan Spieth at the Presidents Cup, where he went 5-0-0.
On strength in depth, historically, a relative lack of it has meant that International captains have been more inclined to send players out for all five sessions. Since the switch to a 30-point event (down from 34) in 2015, they've always outdone the US in this department, with the holders and favourites able to share the load.
Branden Grace (1st, 2015), Sungjae Im (tied 1st, 2019) and Abraham Ancer (tied 1st, 2019) each played five sessions and if there's to be an International winner of the top overall scorer market, they'll likely have had to do so. Much more likely, though, is that this is won by an American, and the value has to be XANDER SCHAUFFELE.
First and foremost, he's the second best player in the competition, but unlike the best, Scottie Scheffler, there's no nagging doubt as to who he'll be paired with. Schauffele will tee it up with Patrick Cantlay in the first foursomes session and should the pair win (they're 3-0-0 in this so far), we'll be set up nicely.
Scheffler on the other hand may again play with his friend, Sam Burns, despite that partnership achieving very little across the 2022 Presidents Cup and 2023 Ryder Cup. If he doesn't, then we'll see another new partner and unless it's Collin Morikawa, it won't be as strong as Schauffele's.
Given that Schauffele also boasts the superior record overall and has won both singles matches in the Presidents Cup, this is one occasion where I couldn't split the two and I'm surprised to see that Schauffele is the same price as Cantlay. Yes, their partnership is relevant, but Schauffele is likely to be a shorter price for their respective singles matches based on the information we have available, and Cantlay is more likely to be benched if they are split up.
Backing the bigger price of a likely pairing worked out with Spieth over Justin Thomas at Quail Hollow and it might've been an option here had we been able to take 14/1 Cantlay. But at 10/1 each of two, the superior player, at the end of the best season of his career, has to be the one.
The fact that team golf stud Max Homa is out of form helps, and in the absence of Thomas, Schauffele can be Captain America this time.
For the Internationals, things are a bit more complicated. We've fewer rookies, arguably fewer players whose form is questionable, and while I believe not taking Cam Davis was a mistake, I can't say I blame Weir for selecting three Canadians. The weakest of them on paper is a dynamite putter who hit the ball well in his prep start, too.
Those Canadians are intriguing as things couldn't have gone worse for Corey Conners and Taylor Pendrith in 2022. Being at home, as captain's picks, brings with it pressure and of the three, Mackenzie Hughes might be best equipped to thrive under it.
The issue with Hughes is foursomes, and while he may play Friday's session (only two on each side won't), the fact that the Internationals' approach has been so data-driven raises some doubt. It also makes me wonder how likely Weir will be to run with the hot hand, when 'stick to the plan' has generally been the mantra.
BYEONG HUN AN is one I suspect is being underestimated among those perhaps not expected to play a key role, as he's basically the outsider here yet for my money is certainly not among the three weakest links on this team.
In fact, his long-game is one of the best and most reliable, making him an ideal foursomes partner, and his form is among the most consistent, too. He extended a nice run with 18th at Wentworth last week and enjoyed a fine PGA Tour season which ended at East Lake, where yet again his ball-striking was of a high standard.
Clearly, there's potential for An to pair up with any of the other three Koreans, each of them shorter than he is in the betting, but it's his excellent debut at Royal Melbourne which really catches my eye. He partnered with Adam Scott twice in Australia and they didn't lose either match, so with the same people working behind the scenes, that pairing could be on the cards.
If your list of potential partners includes Scott (has played 49 of 50 sessions in a long Presidents Cup career), Sungjae Im, Si Woo Kim (top-scorer for Internationals in 2022) and Tom Kim, you probably deserve a little more respect and I'm certain the Scott factor hasn't been considered by those pricing this up.
There's only one man who ought to be favourite in this and it's HIDEKI MATSUYAMA, so he too goes into the staking plan.
Matsuyama's body is the one potential negative as he's had his share of health issues, but in five Presidents Cup appearances he's twice played every session, and on the other three occasions four from five. A minimum of four seems a near certainty and that's enough to make him a strong bet.
Put simply, Matsuyama is the best player on this team, he's had the best year, his recent form is the best, and he's the one player on either side who can compete with peak Scheffler and Schauffele. He's shown that by winning two Signature Events and an Olympics medal this year.
His Presidents Cup record isn't spectacular but by no means is it bad when you view it through the prism of United States domination, and I quite like the prospect of another go alongside in-form Pendrith (the pair both use Srixon balls and played together in 2022). Pendrith has improved since and Matsuyama is in much better form.
Scott is another potential partner but we don't need to do much guessing here to justify backing Matsuyama. In my view, the Koreans and the Canadians, while making up the spine of this side, have for the most part been overrated in the market and that creates a spot of value with Matsuyama, who ought to be a couple of points shorter.
What other markets should we consider?
While it was dramatic, in the end the Solheim Cup saw the USA lead after every day and win, which had been Matt Cooper's headline selection at 2/1. The same bet is close to 2/1 here despite a seemingly wider disparity between the sides and while that's due to the extra day, the US could have a big lead come Thursday night.
Another market I like the look of, but one that isn't available everywhere (bet365 and Sky Bet at the time of writing), concerns who will hole the winning putt or secure the winning point/half-point. Put more simply, which player will tick their team's score over to 15.5 points.
While the market is compressed, I think it's probably upside down and that the weaker US players should be shorter. The reason for that is I'd suggest 12/1 co-favourites Scheffler and Schauffele might go out first and second in the singles, and unless it's a complete landslide, that would mean they've no realistic chance to win this heat.
Schauffele did win this market in 2022 but from seventh in the singles. Tommy Fleetwood won from 11th in the Ryder Cup order but that was a tight contest, mirroring Matt Kuchar in the 2019 Presidents Cup.
Even in a record USA win in 2019, Collin Morikawa was fifth in the order and my guess would be we're looking at a US player who goes out from seventh to 11th, which is often where the weaker ones are.
Small bets on the likes of Russell Henley and Keegan Bradley are worth considering, while you could take the six biggest-priced US players at about 2/1 combined, which is a nice way to back USA to win at inflated odds.
Finally, Pendrith is 5/2 in bet365's top Canadian market and that's tempting. Conners is 13/10 and the disparity here looks wide given that they may well be given the chance to make amends for their fruitless 2022 partnership, while Pendrith's potential pairing with Matsuyama is another factor in his favour.
Hughes at 13/8 looks plenty short and helps make this book, but again you may not find prices with many firms. To underline how peculiar this market is, Hughes is 5/1 to be top International wildcard with the same firm, with Pendrith 9/2. You'll have to explain to me how they can be 13/8 and 5/2 the other way round in the top Canadian betting.
Player profiles
- Click the image of each captain for profiles of their respective teams
Posted at 1650 BST on 23/09/24
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