US PGA golf betting tips: Preview, odds and best bets for first round
In his final pre-tournament preview, Ben Coley looks at the first round of the PGA Championship where he has a trio of big-priced fancies.
Golf betting tips: PGA Championship round one
1pt e.w. Keegan Bradley to lead after R1 at 66/1 (Sky Bet, Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Jason Kokrak to lead after R1 at 80/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Gary Woodland to lead after R1 at 90/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
Sky Bet odds - seven places | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
The first-round leader market might be the most volatile puzzle of the week, but results in majors offer some encouragement that it can be solved. Just last month, Justin Rose led at Augusta for the fourth time in his career, having been within a shot or two on three further occasions. In November, Paul Casey was part of a three-way share which included Dustin Johnson, whose 65 came on the back of rounds of 66, 66 and 65 a week earlier, and at a course he had mastered.
Johnson, Casey and Rose have all led the US Open, the former more than once, and in September that honour went to Justin Thomas. He'd shot 66 at East Lake to open his previous start. And in this event, Brendon Todd might not have appeared an obvious option at Harding Park, but a week earlier he'd been the halfway leader at Southwind, where he opened with a 64 to lie second. Alongside him in the PGA was Jason Day, whose last three starts had all ended in top-10 finishes.
Above all else, in the PGA Championship there has been a consistent theme: those off to fast starts in prior weeks have often maintained their early momentum. Fourteen players have led this tournament dating back to when last it came to Kiawah Island, where Carl Pettersson went just a little lower than a week earlier, when he'd shot 67 to lie ninth. Seven of them had been inside the top 10 after the first round in their final start beforehand, and the likes of Johnson and Brooks Koepka had very recent experience of leading, while lesser-knowns like Kevin Chappell and Kevin Kisner had been placed in this market.
All of which points to K.H. Lee, last week's runaway winner of the Byron Nelson. His last four opening rounds read 67, 69, 66, 65, three of them enough for a place inside the top 10, and as the last man into the field he is respected. In fact rewind two years and Sung Kang, who was greenside to congratulate him on Sunday, won the Byron Nelson and then started well en route to seventh place at Bethpage. It's possible Lee, who was superb under the gun, emulates him and lands the place money at least at 100/1.
But I'm going even more Captain Obvious, with KEEGAN BRADLEY surely must-bet material at 66s.
There's been quite a move for Bradley in the outright market in recent weeks, for reasons self-evident. He was third here as defending champion in 2012, and his form, underpinned by improvement with the putter, is really good. Two starts back he was second to Sam Burns at the Valspar and he played well for three rounds at Quail Hollow, too.
But for a player who wins infrequently, albeit generally at a very high level when he does, his price now appears short. On the other hand it has held up quite nicely in the first-round leader market, one he has won four times in the last couple of years and nine times throughout a decade as a PGA Tour player — that's versus four titles so far.
Bradley is in fact a habitual fast starter. You have to go back to 2011 for the only season he ended outside the top 25 per cent on Tour, and then he was still above average. A mainstay inside the top 30 in round one scoring, he currently sits seventh for the season and hasn't been worse than 27th since January. His last two results read 1-2, reminiscent of Koepka (1-4) and Johnson (two leads in three) before they made blistering starts in this, and his length and high ball-flight should be hugely valuable on what looks a fairly calm day.
I'm by no means sold on the idea that length will be everything here, despite the beefy yardage. Yes, players came off the course on Tuesday talking about how brutally long the course was, even big-hitters like Will Zalatoris talking about how many long-irons they had to hit, but the PGA have hinted that almost all tee options are open for use. At a resort course that means the overall yardage could dip considerably depending on conditions.
On day one, however, those who can be that bit more aggressive and might even set up the odd eagle putt have to be preferred. As such I'll add JASON KOKRAK and GARY WOODLAND at similar prices.
Kokrak is very similar to Bradley, in that improved putting has translated to a run of excellent form, in his case dating back to a breakthrough win late last year. One of the most powerful players on the circuit, he's one place better in round one scoring and has been inside the top 20 in his last six appearances, a remarkably consistent run.
Before that he held the lead after Thursday's play at the Sony Open, a very different course but at least coastal and with slow greens, and his best performances in majors so far have come at the longest courses he's played. Like Bradley, he's out early and while the forecast looks fairly level for now, I would lean towards that side of the draw.
As for afternoon starter Woodland, two top-10 finishes in his last few starts, plus the fact he's spoken about his improved health and getting his swing back to where it was during his major-winning 2019 season, are cause for encouragement.
I'm not quite convinced by him yet in terms of being right back to his best, but Quail Hollow's contending performance was a big step in the right direction. Perhaps then he can find a low round on the right day for us and as well as leading at Bellerive in 2018, he was second here at Kiawah Island after the first round in 2012, and also placed in the 2017 edition.
Who's the best three-ball bet?
It's a tricky three-ball coupon in which prices close to 2/1 about Antoine Rozner beating Brandon Stone and Chez Reavie are arguably the standout option. The Frenchman has missed his last two cuts but appears to remain close to the form which has seen him win twice on the European Tour since December, and play well at the Match Play here in the US.
He's certainly operating at a far higher level than Reavie, who is badly out of form and has missed five cuts in succession. Troublingly for a quality ball-striker, he's lost 13 strokes from tee-to-green across his last three, and he also concedes a few yards off the tee to both his playing partners.
Stone would be one to watch here at his best, as he's a good player by the coast, but back-to-back missed cuts on the Challenge Tour, on home soil, are alarming. All that suggests Rozner deserves to be a little shorter and those who can take the 9/5 might do well to give him the benefit of the doubt.
Phil Mickelson makes some appeal at 2/1 in a group where Jason Day is favourite, but I'm almost as tempted by Padraig Harrington, who outperformed Mickelson here in 2012 and hit it well last time. Finally then, Thomas Pieters at 3/1 to outmuscle Matt Kuchar and confirm that Patrick Cantlay is in poor form is somewhat interesting, albeit Cantlay has missed cuts on the number lately and has drifted to a big price at a course he will like.
Ultimately nothing made great appeal here so I'll watch closely with a view to Friday's second round.
Posted at 0815 BST on 19/05/21
PGA Championship previews
- Ben Coley's outright betting preview and tips
- Specials betting preview and tips
- Kiawah Island hole-by-hole guide
- Playing for places: Outsiders who could contend
- US PGA Championship: Expert picks
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