Golf betting tips: Honda Classic final round
2pts Brice Garnett to beat Stewart Cink at 23/20 (bet365, William Hill)
Day one of the Honda Classic saw Matt Jones produce what may well turn out to be the best round of the year on the PGA Tour as he blitzed it round PGA National in a remarkable 61 blows, opening up a three-stroke lead and leaving the rest of the field collectively shaking their heads.
Day two inevitably saw Jones struggle to back up his Thursday heroics however after a poor start he rallied well to post a level par round of 70 all be it relinquishing his lead to Aaron Wise.
Saturday however saw the course really bare its teeth and as the contenders one by one fell by the wayside in the northerly winds, Jones was able to hang tough. Having been the only player from the last half a dozen groups who was able to shoot under-par, the Australian has that three-shot lead back heading into the final round.
A two-time winner of his home open, and a one-time winner on the PGA Tour in Texas, like most Australians Jones is more than comfortable playing in the wind, and if the conditions are again tough, which they are expected to be, he will be a hard man to beat. He is almost certainly on the winning number on 10-under and it could well be that an over-par round still gets it done.
If Jones is to triumph he will of course need to navigate his way through the infamous Bear Trap, holes 15 through 17, which is at its toughest when the wind comes from the north like on Saturday, but more of an obstacle may be playing partner JB Holmes, not necessarily from his level of play but more specifically from the pace of it.
A five-time winner on Tour, Holmes is a world-class performer on his day and having won at venues like Riviera and Quail Hollow winning here will hold no great fear for him. With Saturday’s superb round of 67 vaulting him up to second place on seven-under he will fancy his chances of win number six despite having arrived out of sorts.
Alongside Holmes’ undoubted quality though is the fact that he is arguably the slowest player on the circuit and with Jones almost certainly the quickest, he will have to be really focused to not be put off his rhythm.
While Holmes does have the class to win this, having been out of the spotlight for a long while now and struggling to regain any momentum so far this season after returning from injury problems, it may well be that this opportunity has come too soon for him and if, as I suspect he will, he struggles this will slow things down further.
Although it is almost seven years since Jones’ lone PGA Tour success he has landed those two Australian Opens in the interim, the first coming when he battled back from letting slip a three-shot lead going in to Sunday before triumphing in the end by one shot over Jordan Spieth and Adam Scott, and the second only a couple of years ago when again prevailing by a shot, this time over Louis Oosthuizen.
With these positive experiences in the memory bank then I expect Jones to get the job done, however playing alongside Holmes on a course where disaster lurks wherever you look I am in no rush to back him at a general 11/10.
Of the other challengers Wise, who sits alongside Holmes on seven-under, you suspect will struggle to rebound from his tough Saturday, while of those on six-under preference would be for one time-tour winner CT Pan over perennial bridesmaid Cameron Tringale and maiden Sam Ryder. Defending Champion Sungjae Im also lurks a further shot back on five-under but he is short enough in my eyes in the market considering that he starts five shots back and finished 5-5 on Saturday.
Jones then is expected to win but there's better value at similar odds on the two-ball coupon courtesy of BRICE GARNETT, who finds himself up against Stewart Cink at 5pm UK time.
Cink, at 47 years old, is enjoying something of an Indian summer in his career of late as he landed the Safeway Open title completely out of the blue last September before following up a few weeks later in Bermuda with another top-five.
This year has been a different kettle of fish altogether so far with only one top 20, and he arrives here having missed his last three cuts.
Garnett, the definition of a Tour journeyman, could of course only dream of having had the career that Cink has had with his lone PGA Tour title to date coming at the Corales Puntacana in 2018.
As that win shows though Garnett is more than comfortable in blustery conditions and he arrives here having posted top-five finish a couple of starts ago by the coast in Puerto Rico.
Garnett cannot boast consistency as one of his strongest assets however if you look at his record when he is involved on Sunday he tends to make it count. On the 16 occasions since the start of the 2019/20 season he has seen day-four action he has broken 70 a total of 10 times, posting six rounds of 67 or better. One of these occasions was here last year when he carded a hugely impressive 66 on the way to 11th place.
As a former Open champion, Cink is needless to say no mug in tough conditions, however a poor three-putt from nowhere at his final hole last night may just have knocked the wind out of his sails and I am happy to chance Garnett at odds-against.
Posted at 0955 GMT on 21/03/21
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