PGA Championship specials betting preview and tips from Ben Coley
Nick Taylor is worth a speculative bet to go well on day one of the PGA Championship according to golf expert Ben Coley, who looks at the specials.
Recommended bets
2pts Nick Taylor to be the top Canadian at 5/1
0.5pt e.w. Nick Taylor to lead after R1 at 250/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
0.5pt e.w. Sepp Straka to lead after R1 at 125/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
0.5pt e.w. Erik van Rooyen to lead after R1 at 100/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Sung Kang to be the top Asian at 16/1 (1/5 1,2,3)
The last two courses used for the PGA Championship have been tilted towards big-hitters, and I suspect the same will be true in this week's renewal at Harding Park - if not perhaps to the same extent. The advantage at the last two has been evident from day one; here, it might just take 54 or even the full 72 holes to unravel. At the very least I expect those who drive the ball really well to be at a bigger-than-usual advantage.
In 2018, a rain-soaked Bellerive made it point-and-shoot for elite ball-strikers like Brooks Koepka, Adam Scott and Tiger Woods, while a year later Koepka dominated from the front with Dustin Johnson second and Luke List in sixth. Rain really was key to both, combined with long courses set up in a way that virtually eliminated the chances of half the field.
Drier conditions in San Francisco will help redress the balance, but cool air means the ball won't fly so far and come Sunday, expect players who thrive off the tee to dominate - whether they're as long as Bryson DeChambeau and Cameron Champ or averaging a mere 305 off the tee like my headline outright selection, Xander Schauffele. The trouble in solving the puzzle is that this suggestion doesn't narrow things down all that much in a sport dominated by power.
All that being said, I wouldn't be so sure the first-round leader market will be as straightforward as it has been after Gary Woodland topped the leaderboard at Bellerive and Koepka led from the front a year later. Firm conditions should allow us to widen the lens a little, and are enough to put forward NICK TAYLOR as the best value at 250/1 in a place, and a very fair 200/1 generally.
Over his last 50 starts, Taylor averages fully 1.5 shots fewer in the first round versus the fourth, and in three of the last four seasons he's in fact ranked among the top 20 players on the PGA Tour in first-round scoring. For a player who has never been higher than his current perch of 100th in the world, that looks like a significant trend towards bright starts which he can't always follow through.
Of course, when the PGA Tour came to California at the start of the year he did put four rounds together, winning the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am after an opening 64. As has become common, his scores worsened as the week progressed, even allowing for the multi-course format, and if you are going to back him to do something in a major, it'd probably better be on Thursday.
Taylor has two first-round leads this season, and he was second after day one of a high-class Canadian Open last summer - evidence that he can produce when it counts, given that he is one of the Canucks on the circuit.
Comfortable on bentgrass/poa annua greens and placed in this market just two starts ago in the Workday, Taylor is worth a speculative bet to again start well but I must say I'm also keen on him doing enough to prove the pick of the Canadian quartet at 5/1.
Corey Conners quite rightly heads the market but he was just a shot better than Taylor last week, with Mackenzie Hughes and Adam Hadwin further back, the latter fully a dozen behind. Conners and Taylor had been tied entering the final round and there's surely not as much between them as the market suggests.
Hughes has missed his last six cuts in California and all four major cuts so far while Hadwin hasn't done a great deal so far this year and was way down the field in Memphis. Again, this all makes Conners the man to beat, but 5/1 about Taylor looks a big price given that he's made both major cuts as a professional and has been leading amateur in the US Open in the past.
A quality ball-striker these days - he hit it much better than Conners in Memphis - and by no means among the shortest hitters on the circuit, here's hoping he can make his return to the Golden State a lucrative one.
Returning to the first-round leader market and I do want a couple more powerful types on-side. Writing before the draw isn't ideal, but there doesn't look a guarantee of bias as it'll be breezy in the afternoon, but mornings in San Francisco are often very cool which means the course will play longer for the early wave.
As such I'll focus on players with the right profile regardless, with SEPP STRAKA and ERIK VAN ROOYEN the other two suggestions.
Straka tied eighth after round one of the US Open last year when I put him up at 300/1 or so, and the case is the same in essence - except that he's come a long way since and is now established as one of the more promising maidens on the circuit.
A brilliant driver of the ball when at his best and more than proficient with putter in hand, the Austrian is enjoying a career year and need only tidy up the odd loose end to become a serious player, one capable of earning himself a complicated but fortunate conundrum: whether to play for Europe or the USA in the Ryder Cup.
Right now he's in excellent form with three top-20 finishes in four, and though the fast starts have dried up a little, low rounds have not. He's a streaky sort capable of getting on a roll, one of two first-round leads at this level came in California as well as that effort last summer at Pebble Beach, and he can go well at three-figure prices.
As for Van Rooyen, it's interesting that all four South Africans who played the Match Play here in 2015 played nicely, even George Coetzee who exited after two wins in three group matches as the other three sailed into the knockout stages.
The reason I say it's interesting is that one of them, Louis Oosthuizen, spoke about how conditions reminded him of home and more specifically Fancourt, which just rubs salt in the wounds of Branden Grace after the former Fancourt champion tested positive for coronavirus last week.
Back to Van Rooyen, and he drove the ball so well last week in Memphis, where his approach play in the final round was bettered only by Shane Lowry and Ryan Palmer, that I can see him flushing his way to a low number.
He made a strong start when eighth in this last year, shot a second-round 62 in the WGC-Mexico in the spring, and just looks the sort who could get his name up at the top of the leaderboard if picking up where he left off on Sunday afternoon.
Palmer, who shared the lead in the 2014 PGA Championship, is another potential candidate but the price is going and it could also pay to look at Charl Schwartzel, back-to-form last time, a California contender in the early part of the year, and perhaps capable of outplaying his odds for all that he likely won't stick around to contend.
Finally in this market, last-minute entrants via the preceding week's event have often gone well, including Sung Kang last May, so the 125/1 quoted about Barracuda champion Richy Werenski is worth a second look. I'd be worried he's better when birdies are flying and lacks experience so he's overlooked, but what he did over the closing holes of California merits attention.
It's tempting to take on Jon Rahm in the top continental European market with someone like Straka, a 20/1 chance with three places on offer, while Rory McIlroy may well be vulnerable to either Shane Lowry (3/1) in the top Irish market, or the likes of Tommy Fleetwood at 7/1 to be the top continental European player.
But the most interesting market to my eye is top Asian, where Hideki Matsuyama will likely win as he tends to but nevertheless looks short enough along with Sungjae Im, who rode a hot putter on his preferred bermuda last week and isn't hitting the ball well.
That opens things up for an each-way play and there are a handful of options, none more compelling than SUNG-HOON KANG, who was in fact the leading Asian player in last year's PGA.
Now, that did come after he'd won the Byron Nelson in brilliant fashion and he's not in that kind of form currently, but he opened 65-69 as he spent the first two days of the WGC inside the top five, and 65-67 at the Travelers three starts before that.
In other words there have been more positives than his form figures might imply, and having made six major cuts in seven, twice finishing inside the top 20 on US soil, that makes him interesting.
Indeed he's 44-7 in this event, 39-18 in the US Open, so all four majors in the US have been strong. More to the point, his finishes in the top Asian market read 6-1-3-1 and not always has he arrived at his best. Simply put, he is one of those players - Chez Reavie is another who springs to mind - who has found the right formula when it comes to producing what you might term sneaky-good major golf.
Throw in the fact he contended at Torrey Pines and Riviera at the start of the year, underlining how well he tends to play in California, and he looks a knocking bet at 14/1 generally and 16/1 in a place. Much will depend on whether he can drive the ball better but he referenced finding something early last week and might now be able to hold onto it for 72 holes rather than just 36.
Jason Dufner is tempting to finish in the top 20 at 12/1, but I would think he's really playing for four or five of those places with a top 10 here surely out of reach, and he'll perhaps be one I look to side with in Wednesday's three-balls preview.
Posted at 1030 BST on 04/08/20
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