Golf expert Ben Coley previews the first men's major of 2020, as Brooks Koepka goes for his third straight victory in the PGA Championship.
Recommended bets
3pts e.w. Xander Schauffele at 22/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9)
2pts e.w. Patrick Cantlay at 28/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9)
1pt e.w. Jason Day at 40/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9)
1pt e.w. Tommy Fleetwood at 50/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9)
1pt e.w. Phil Mickelson at 80/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11)
1pt e.w. Harris English at 150/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
For the first time since 1983 and only the second time in history, California gets back-to-back years of men's major golf as the PGA Championship heads to TPC Harding Park in San Francisco. For much of spring and into early summer, it looked like the gap between the 2019 US Open at Pebble Beach and 102nd edition of this tournament would be stretched wider, and yet here we are, fan-less but otherwise well-set, for the first major since Shane Lowry's jubilant romp at Portrush last July.
Sport is always escapist, and that was true on a divided island where an old-fashioned golfer from the south took the north along with him. I'm not sure we'll ever see a tournament so purely joyous, where the absence of back-nine drama didn't matter, but in a very different way to when Tiger Woods would mesmerise us at Pebble Beach or St Andrews. Seldom has a player seemed so comfortable between the turf beneath him and the dark skies above as Lowry did then; it was natural, visceral, totally enchanting.
Twelve miles from Alcatraz and three months from when the PGA Championship was supposed to take place, this is all about escapism, too. And, not to underplay the nine PGA Tour events which have taken place since mid-June, but number 10 means something beyond the sport. Though some of us won't forget the conclusion to the FedEx St Jude Classic in a hurry, nor the Workday Charity Open for that matter, it's over the four days to come that history will be written in ink rather than pencil.
Without those roars which carried Lowry to the Claret Jug, or the celebrations which marked Tiger Woods' sensational 15th major championship three months prior, things won't be the same. But golf has shown that it can find purpose and meaning without the public lining the fairways. Those millions who've tuned in worldwide - viewing figures have been very strong - have lost out because of an absence of cameras rather than fans, and the hope would be even that gap can be successfully plugged for the first major of the year.
As if to underline the relative normality we now experience, Brooks Koepka shares top billing in the market with the latest world number one, Justin Thomas. Koepka is going for a third successive victory in the event having looked the winner until late on last week, where Thomas confirmed once again that he does winning better than just about anyone. Indeed these two combine for the last three renewals of the PGA Championship, and it's no wonder they're both so strong in the betting.
My concerns with both are pernickety, necessarily so, but genuine nonetheless.
First and foremost each prefers to fade the ball off the tee, and I'm convinced that's not the ideal shot-shape for a par 70 which often turns left, especially down a brilliant closing stretch. Secondly, neither has excelled in California. There are individual worries too: Koepka's driver went missing when he needed it in Memphis, and the same is true for Thomas, who may again be without Jimmy Johnson on the bag. Each of these in isolation doesn't amount to much, but combined they're enough - especially at 10/1 from 33s where Koepka is concerned - to look elsewhere.
That being said, I do believe power will be a serious advantage this week. It always is, but 7,234 is a meaty enough yardage for a par 70, and the cool west coast air will make the course player longer still. The scoring holes - namely a short-ish par-five and another that should still be reachable; and the seventh and 16th, both of which are par-fours which will likely be driveable at some stage - also play into the hands of those who gain their strokes off the tee, and it's no wonder the last event of note here was won by Rory McIlroy, with Gary Woodland second.
Back in 2005, Tiger Woods beat John Daly in a battle of the big-hitters and though we're only across the lake from Olympic Club, where Webb Simpson won a nudgers' renewal of the US Open in 2012, I'm not sure churning out 275-yard fairways will get anyone very far. We're guessing to an extent having not seen the place since the 2015 Match Play won by McIlroy, but I expect driver to be reached for regularly, and the best drivers in the sport to make up much of the leaderboard.
It's with that in mind that XANDER SCHAUFFELE gets top billing at the same price as last week.
Schauffele defied a poor previous record at Southwind to finish sixth, and he's one of several towards the top of the leaderboard who will feel it was an opportunity missed. In the case of the Californian, to play 70 of the 72 holes at such a difficult course in par or better and not even have a chance to win will be galling, and it all comes back to a silly, messy eight he made during the second round.
On both Thursday and Sunday he was bogey-free, the only other blemish coming when he missed a 10-foot par putt in round three, so it's clear that Schauffele arrives back in his home state with his game in order. With driver in particular, he continues to thrive, and nobody in the field hit the ball better from the tee in the final round of the WGC-St Jude Invitational.
Over his last two starts, Schauffele has ranked first and seventh in strokes-gained off-the-tee and while his iron play can be in and out, more often than not he has it dialled in for the majors - a fact reflected by five top-six finishes in 11 major starts so far, a sensational record and one which promises plenty in the years ahead.
We'll have to take on trust that he can hit his approach shots better, but everything else in Memphis was good enough to have a real go at this title, and he was third at Pebble Beach last year in the only home-game major he's had the chance to play so far. It's true that he's not won since 2018, but he's been mighty close on several occasions and I have no doubts whatsoever about his resolution.
With form that ties in with McIlroy, such as wins at East Lake and Sheshan, Schauffele looks like he'll love it here at Harding Park. And he's playing superbly. So far in this stop-start 2020 he's bagged 10 top-25 finishes in 12 starts, twice played the final hole with a chance to win, and continued to dominate the par-fours which will likely determine the outcome of this.
His only bad putting week lately came on those absurdly fast greens at Muirfield Village so he can be forgiven that, and the 26-year-old simply looks primed to contend.
The PGA Championship is often considered the best chance for a new major winner to emerge and both Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau will look to continue that trend having enjoyed fruitful summers so far.
Rahm can probably be forgiven a quiet first week as world number one and has winning form at Torrey Pines, another major-hosting municipal in California, as well as a further victory in the desert. He's another who tends to hit it left-to-right off the tee but a recent win is an excellent pointer in any major, and the Spaniard ought to leave Memphis well behind.
DeChambeau is less convincing, for all that he continues to drive the ball astonishingly well. It may just take him some time to really dial in his irons and he's cut a frustrated figure, and a controversial one, throughout the two events he's played since winning in relatively weak company. He'll figure it out like he always does but can't be fancied strongly at 14/1.
Instead, I'll look to PATRICK CANTLAY at double that price.
An eight-under weekend at Southwind, where his iron play was excellent, sets him up for another big run at this title and form figures of 33-27-3 in the event are very strong. Already in what's a brief career in majors, he's had a golden opportunity to win the Masters and finished third at Bethpage, his all-round game enough to deal with the changing courses and conditions of the sport's four biggest events.
Cantlay was the first big name beaten in the St Jude last week but that owed plenty to a horrid Thursday with the putter and he fought back in the manner of someone who knew how valuable those Saturday and Sunday rounds could be when it comes to being ready to win a first major championship.
Like Schauffele, he's strong off the tee and boasts excellent par-four stats, and both wins on the PGA Tour underline that tougher conditions bring out his best. Should the greens get really quick - which is possible, as they're not too undulating which gives officials options - that experience at Muirfield Village rates a positive, and I like the fact he's contended at Riviera in LA.
Cantlay is another who prefers to hit a draw which should make him more comfortable than most with some difficult tee-shots, and though he's not contended since the restart, his schedule looks to have been geared around being primed for this week. He's not alone in that, but he has only played four times and the majority of his work has been positive.
Those are the two players who appear most ready to graduate into the major winner's club, and I wouldn't underestimate the value of having been in this situation previously. Only the odd shock, opportunistic major winner was doing so without a previous taste of those high-pressure Sundays, with the likes of Koepka, Thomas, Patrick Reed, Francesco Molinari and Jordan Spieth all examples of players whose first win came soon after a feeler.
It's that which compels me to avoid Collin Morikawa, another Californian and one who knows this course, and it provides encouragement that TOMMY FLEETWOOD might go one better than in the 2019 Open Championship.
Fleetwood was devastated not to make Lowry work harder for the Claret Jug, but he played terrifically well all week and it won't have taken long to get over - indeed he capped an excellent year with a huge cheque at the Nedbank. The bottom line should be that he's contended for majors in 2017, 2018 and 2019, and though there are only three to go at in 2020, I expect the trend to continue at some stage.
Perhaps this will come too soon, as he's only played six rounds since March having taken a cautious approach to the resumption. And yet I find myself drawn to the idea that holing up in the Hamptons, where he played Shinnecock away from the glare of the cameras, might prove to be a genius move. Plenty here have been contending week in, week out in relentlessly competitive fields, and for players like Morikawa or Viktor Hovland or Matt Wolff, even their youth might not be enough to combat a little mental fatigue.
There are no excuses on that score for Fleetwood, who should be sharp now, and I like the fact he closed with a round of 65 at Southwind in which he did all of his best work from tee-to-green. Without that round it would've been hard to be confident given he'd driven the ball so poorly early in the tournament, but as we saw with Koepka last week a player of this standard can take plenty from seeing things come together even if it's too late to make an impact in any given tournament.
At 12th off-the-tee last year, Fleetwood is a fine driver of the ball and he was actually 12th for this season, too, until last week's effort saw him drop down the rankings. Again, though: he drove it just fine on Sunday, especially on the back-nine where he hit every fairway bar the 18th, and both his approach play and short-game numbers were solid throughout. He also ranked seventh across the par-fours, which will be absolutely key at this tough-looking par 70.
It's also worth noting that Fleetwood made the quarter-finals of the match play here in 2015, just at the beginning of his slide down the rankings, and this strong right-to-left player can step up massively on last week's share of 35th at a course we know suits.
When you're getting 10 or 11 places it's really not a silly idea to have 10 or 11 bets, but I've tried to keep a lid on the staking plan here as I appreciate that's a hard sell for the everyday punter. Still, those who do want to chase that place money should consider Jason Dufner, a former winner of this who has also been second and fifth, and arrives here at 350/1 despite hitting the ball really nicely for months now.
I put up Dufner at the same price for the PLAYERS and he started well to sit four-under after day one, and another demanding course could bring out his best - even if he does lack punch from the tee. He was practicing with Tiger Woods here on Sunday and being back in San Francisco is no bad thing, given that his best US Open result came just across Lake Merced when fourth behind Simpson.
Still, I've tried to stick to those I really feel can win the tournament and that's certainly true when it comes to another former champion, JASON DAY.
The 2015 champion and 2016 runner-up has long been a regular contender for majors and while he's a long way down the rankings now, three top-seven finishes in his last three starts is a compelling run of form. In fact, you have to go all the way back to 2016 for the last time he put together a similar run, and back then it took him to number one in the world.
In the here and now, some may be concerned to hear he's split from long-time coach and mentor Col Swatton, but on the contrary - it looks like a positive. Though news only became widespread last week, that change actually occurred before this little sequence of placed finishes, and it's clear Day has been freed up in some way as he alluded to in Memphis.
His approach play, long a weakness, has started to come round and he ranked 10th last week (and fourth on Sunday), while the putter - long a strength, but a weakness for much of this year - has also shown signs that it may be about to sing, so the message is that everything is coming together at an ideal time.
"Yeah, it's good," was his verdict during last week's event. "I'm very pleased with my short game. (It has) helped me a lot over the last three weeks and that's usually the strength of my game, which has been nice. It's nice to be able to see it finally come back.
"Overall, I feel like the game is there. I think just slowly build. Hopefully the next two days are going to be nice for me, but I'm looking forward to getting into the PGA next week."
It's certainly interesting that he was already looking ahead to this week during a World Golf Championship, but perhaps that's no surprise given that Day boasts an excellent record in the US PGA, and has long been a player who thrives out on the west coast.
Twice a winner at Torrey Pines and a regular contender at Pebble Beach, the Australian putts these bent/poa greens as well as just about anyone when at his best and while he was far from that when last there were majors to be won, don't forget he still placed in the Masters (T5), finished 23rd in the PGA, and was 21st in the US Open.
That's a book of major form which ties in with a decade's worth before it, with a top-10 strike rate of 40 percent, and underlines the very obvious case for him here.
There are no concerns that he flopped in the 2015 Match Play, where he described himself as 'exhausted and underprepared', and Day is taken to demonstrate that the last three weeks have done their job in preparing him for another tilt at the PGA Championship.
To go back briefly to the very front of the market, I looked long and hard at the two biggest names in the sport - Rory McIlroy, and Tiger Woods.
McIlroy is made for this course, where he was a convincing champion in 2015, which allays concerns over his wider form in California. He might just find himself a good deal more switched-on now there's a major to play for, having been mentally lacklustre since the restart, and he's suddenly a drifting 14/1 chance for the one major he's won twice.
The trouble is his approach play, which has been bottom-line terrible, and troublingly inconsistent, for the last two months. McIlroy is one of the best ball-strikers this sport has ever seen, so to be regularly failing with his irons is just too big a negative to ignore.
As for Woods, his winning return over the last two years says odds of 33/1 are ludicrous - not to mention those 15 majors tucked away already. He won here in 2005 and went 5-0-0 at the Presidents Cup held at Harding Park, a course he played as a kid, so there are plenty of positives. It's also perhaps telling that he showed no signs of tightness when playing a full 18 holes on Sunday, while his only other start this summer at least came with strong ball-striking numbers at Muirfield Village.
Woods may well be worth using as a cover shot to get back your total investment if he does win major number 16, but I've instead talked myself into old rival PHIL MICKELSON at 80/1 with as many as 10 or 11 places depending where you shop.
Mickelson played fairly well here in 2005 and then won four-and-a-half points at the aforementioned Presidents Cup, both times speaking fondly of the course. Like Woods, he's a born-and-raised Californian with a strong record on the west coast, including five wins at Pebble Beach, three at Torrey Pines, and two at Riviera.
He can hit his butter-cut fades off the tee here and I just love the way he played in Memphis, where he drove it well, his irons were generally excellent, and he made plenty of putts. It all added up to a tie for second which appears to my eye to have gone unnoticed, given that he's barely moved in the market over the last few days.
It comes down to age, and the fact many will find the idea of a 50-year-old major champion to be a hard sell in this sport of the 20-something. But Mickelson is an all-time great, who won his last major at 43, and who over the last two years has got back in the habit of collecting trophies.
He's been in the top-three on three occasions this year, and it's potentially significant that two came back-to-back, before another last week. It's also true that four of his five major wins arrived after a top-10 finish the week before, and Mickelson - unlike for example McIlroy - is a player who knows just what he wants to get out of his preparations.
Inconsistency is what you tend to get with Mickelson these days but he's made his last four cuts, leading at halfway in the Travelers and finishing alongside Koepka last week. All those who had a sniff in Memphis appear to be really popular as a result, but it strikes me that the old man of the party is being dismissed as exactly that, and I don't think he's an 80/1 shot with these place terms we're getting.
Hideki Matsuyama is another member of that major maiden club for whom victory wouldn't surprise anyone, and arriving a little under-the-radar will suit. He looked like he'd win this when at the peak of his powers in 2017 but has undoubtedly been held back a little by issues of self-belief, and the media pressure which comes from his native Japan.
The latter factor may be less significant this week with fewer personnel on-site, and his opening round at the PLAYERS remains of significance. Still, he's not been at his best and all things considered I'm happy enough to leave him out.
Of those at bigger odds, by far and away the standout candidate is HARRIS ENGLISH, and he's the final name into the staking plan.
Take a look at the strokes-gained total numbers for the year and you'll see that the top 15 players are all in the world's top 25, with one exception - the player who is down at 123 in the world despite a back-to-form campaign. English in fact sits 10th in the strokes-gained charts, those above him all world-class as well as those just below, and while his numbers have been built in a generally lower grade, he is still operating like a top 50 or even top 30 player in the sport.
It's been a brilliantly consistent season for the 31-year-old, and the work he's done with Justin Parsons promises to take him into that elite group if he can continue to move forward. Long touted as part of the future of American golf, it's seven years since he was winning titles but something big is coming and I wouldn't be all that surprised to see his name in the mix come Sunday.
Now one of the strongest drivers around, English showed a liking for Harding Park when winning two of his three games at the 2015 Match Play, and spoke then of how much he enjoys playing out west - not always the case for a Georgia boy. He's contended at Torrey Pines more than once, losing a play-off to Day in 2015, and putts well on these greens.
And now, after a difficult few weeks having been diagnosed with coronavirus which forced his withdrawal from the Travelers, English will be in three-balls again. That wasn't the case at the Memorial, where he did superbly well to finish 13th despite playing on his own at the weekend in probably the strongest event post-lockdown, and it's clear he's keen for normality to return.
"It was the weirdest part of the last few weeks: I didn’t feel like I was part of the tournament," he said. "I couldn’t go in the clubhouse, couldn’t go in the fitness trailer; it was kind of like we were viewed as if we had Leprosy. I'm pumped to be back in the fold."
Having since been 18th in the 3M Open when again confined to a COVID-only group, which meant slow two-balls at the weekend, English can be marked up and already he's within hailing distance of the places on an almost weekly basis.
Back in the spring he shot an opening 65 at the PLAYERS, strengthening the impression he'd created when contending for titles prior to Christmas, and though he'd be a shock winner, I don't think he'd be a surprising name to see in contention and at the very least chasing that place money.
Another who came under consideration was Marc Leishman, who says this course suits better than any other he's played in the PGA, in which he has a poor record. He's a regular contender in California, where he won at Torrey Pines at the expense of Rahm and McIlroy earlier this year, but will need to leave behind a string of modest performances since the restart.
I'll cover a couple more interesting names in my specials preview ahead of a PGA Championship which simply can't fail to deliver.
Posted at 1900 BST on 03/08/20
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