PGA Championship specials tips and prop bets: Ben Coley's best bets from other US PGA betting markets
Length off the tee should be a major advantage at Oak Hill and Ben Coley applies that theory to a range of selections from the specials markets.
- Ben's specials preview for the Masters return a profit of +14 points, adding to a return of +14.5pts in the 2022 US Open and profit from the Open. Click here for his full tipping record.
Golf betting tips: PGA Championship specials
3pts Dean Burmester to be the top South African at 19/10 (bet365)
2pts Padraig Harrington to be the top senior at 21/10 (bet365)
1pt Joaquin Niemann to be the top LIV Golf player at 12/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Bryson DeChambeau to be the top LIV Golf player at 14/1 (General)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Top senior
Phil Mickelson is a fantastic bet for top senior honours if you take the Masters as the key piece of form, but I think that would be a mistake – and that PADRAIG HARRINGTON is the one to be on at the prices.
If there's one course where Mickelson can pull a rabbit out of a hat it is Augusta National, where he's a three-time champion and regular feature on the leaderboard. But that is the exception among a list of otherwise poor results dating back to his PGA Tour farewell last January.
Mickelson was 45th in LIV Golf's Tulsa event last week, the second time in his last four appearances that he's failed to crack the top 40 in a 48-man field which features any number of struggling golfers. His best result so far is eighth which, given the lack of depth, suggests that he's either disinterested, simply not playing well, or more likely both.
Maybe he'll click again here, in an event which guarantees his focus, but Oak Hill is going to demand his best and is not a place where you can spray driver everywhere. There seems every chance he misses the cut as he did at Winged Foot in 2020, or finishes near last as he did at Bethpage in 2019 as well as here a decade ago. This is a very different driving test to Augusta and it could find him out.
Harrington on the other hand can aim a good deal higher. He has some tangible recent PGA Tour form having been 10th in the Texas Open and he contended on the DP World Tour at the start of the year, his game seemingly in excellent shape and all stemming from the tee. He finished ahead of Mickelson when they both played in the Open and is strongly fancied to do the same.
Steven Alker, YE Yang and Shaun Micheel complete the set of senior players and Alker must be respected on his Champions Tour exploits, yet this PGA Championship debut is very different. He hasn't played a real major since 2016 and he will probably be exposed now outside of his comfort zone. I'd advise readers to avoid the temptation to back him against Ryan Fox in the top NZ market, even with Fox having just recovered from a bout of pneumonia, and he's of little interest here.
DataGolf's true strokes-gained numbers make Harrington a better player than both Alker and Mickelson and I agree with that assessment, so at 7/4 and upwards he's the bet.
Top LIV Golf player
My view on the LIV Golf players is that we shouldn't take the Masters as evidence of much at all, except to say that under the right conditions, even Mickelson remains capable of elite golf. I just don't think he has anything like them here.
Brooks Koepka plainly deserves respect not just because of his Augusta exploits nor his two wins on the LIV Golf circuit, but because he's a four-time major champion including twice in this event. Victory at Bethpage in particular is a compelling piece of form.
All that being said, I think there's been an overreaction to the Masters and there's certainly an argument that Dustin Johnson should just about head this market ahead of Koepka and Cam Smith, whose poor US Open record away from Chambers Bay might be a clue that this isn't really his bag.
Johnson won last week's LIV Golf event and it makes sense that he's improved as the year has gone on given that by all accounts he barely hit a ball during the off-season. Now evidently back in the swing of things and keen to reestablish himself as the best player on that circuit, he may well get one over his old gym buddy at a course which will be no less suitable, and will likely work against Smith.
Ultimately though his putter did all the heavy lifting in Oklahoma and neither he nor Koepka appears bombproof, so I'm keen to take them on with JOAQUIN NIEMANN and BRYSON DECHAMBEAU.
The case for Niemann is laid out in my outright preview and includes a good effort at Winged Foot, where DeChambeau was a dominant winner.
Although things have spiralled downwards since then, DeChambeau was eighth in the Open last summer when free to thrash his driver and while there's more punishment here, that club will be vital. He drove it well at Augusta and maybe his best LIV Golf finish last week tells us his approach work is in better shape than it was ahead of the Masters.
DeChambeau hit more greens in Tulsa than he had anywhere since the Open and his overall figure has climbed throughout each of his last five events. That and the likelihood of Oak Hill suiting him well makes him a fascinating option not just in this market but also as an exchange play at a massive 200.0 at the time of writing, for all that I find it very hard to imagine him doubling his major tally.
Top South African
There's a very different look to top South African markets these days, with Louis Oosthuizen and Charl Schwartzel both absent along with Branden Grace, the first two major mainstays for more than a decade and Grace a regular contender himself.
Here there are just four from a proud golfing nation, which as well as being rather sad also looks to present us with a good opportunity. Christiaan Bezuidenhout has become something of a de facto favourite, but he's surely the one who is least suited to a course like Oak Hill.
Ten years ago the opposite would've been true, but in the here and now we're talking about a 7,400-yard par 70 where shorter hitters like Bezuidenhout seem likely to struggle. His approach play and putting can sometimes cover the distance gap, but he's yet to make any real impact in 11 majors and, increasingly, set-ups make life very hard for a player of his skillset.
With Ockie Strydom making his first major appearance at the age of 38 and likely to find the going tough following a round of 81 in Italy, we're left with Thriston Lawrence and DEAN BURMESTER, both of whom outperformed Bezuidenhout in the Open when last they all played in a major championship.
Lawrence has been struggling lately so it's Burmester, who was 11th at St Andrews to win this market, who rates a confident bet.
Even without the strokes-gained numbers required to properly contextualise his recent LIV Golf displays, three top-10s in four starts is sufficient evidence to suggest his game is in a really good place, especially after a hot finish in Oklahoma last week which I gather played a part in securing team success for... I want to say Stingers?
He's the longest driver by far among this quartet and that could be a huge advantage, particularly against Bezuidenhout, so at 7/4 and bigger he looks like the sort who could land the money without having to do a great deal. It's possible all four of these miss the cut but Burmester's power-packed game may carry him through to the weekend and potentially close to the leaders.
Posted at 1400 BST on 16/05/23
More PGA Championship content
- Ben Coley's outright preview and selections
- Specials and prop bets for the US PGA
- PGA Championship: Expert picks
- Home advantage for McIlroy at Oak Hill?
- What did we learn about LIV at Augusta?
- What will it take to win the US PGA?
- Oak Hill course guide
- Golf tipping record
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