Our golf expert looks back on the first day of the 151st Open Championship before eyeing up a big-priced treble for the afternoon.
Golf betting tips: Open Championship round two
1pt treble Spieth, Perez and Power to win their three-balls at 17/1 (General)
Eleven of the last 13 Open champions sat inside the top 10 after round one and if that return becomes a dozen from 14, there are two scenarios: popular wins for one of Tommy Fleetwood, Max Homa or Wyndham Clark, or an almighty upset.
Few would've expected a leaderboard packed with solid but not-quite-top-level professionals, the likes of Adrian Otaegui, Emiliano Grillo and Brian Harman. Fewer would've expected amateur Christo Lamprecht to lead the way in the morning. If your natural inclination is to respond with 'it's only Thursday', the same day last year saw five of the world's top 10 in close pursuit of the leader.
It was just a bit of a strange first day. On the face of it, conditions were ideal and yet scoring was difficult. Rickie Fowler and Adam Scott blew up on the final hole. Homa played well in a major. Ryan Fox was the early pace-setter and four or five hours later completed a back-nine 43.
Then, when Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm came to the course, they just sort of did a lot of not much until McIlroy finished strongly to keep in touch.
This is probably an excellent example of why arbitrary lines like top 10 don't tell us very much. Jordan Spieth is one shot off that mark, Scottie Scheffler and Brooks Koepka two, Rory McIlroy three. Plenty of would be contenders, a list which also includes Viktor Hovland, Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele will have returned to their rented houses thinking they'd got through a tough day unscathed.
Friday's forecast is good, similar to that of Thursday but perhaps with just a little more breeze. It looks consistent through the day and the one-shot differential between early and late tee-times may well be levelled. Come the evening, when the cut is made, our list of potential champions will be shorter but still packed with names. The Open remains wide open for now.
JORDAN SPIETH fared best among my outright selections, all of whom sit between three-over and two-under, and I thought it telling that he was by no means dwelling on two sixes which undermined such a strong start.
Spieth shanked his second from a heavy lie at the eighth but was still unfortunate that the ball couldn't be found, costing him two, before finding a fairway bunker off the tee on 18. Virtually everything else he did was of a very high standard and he's taken to outscore Jason Day and Matt Fitzpatrick once more, two players with poor Open records.
Fitzpatrick spoke about how fair the course is but called his round 'meh' and reiterated that given he's never been in the mix for the Open, he didn't exactly expect much better. As for Day, his short-game meant a respectable score but he was never any match for Spieth, who is the best of these under links conditions.
Earlier on I'm fairly amazed to see Sky Bet quote 8/13 about RUSSELL HENLEY to once again beat Graeme Robertson and Jazz Janewattananond, which he did on Thursday while ranking last but one in strokes-gained putting.
Despite being once again described to the viewer as one of the best putters on the PGA Tour, something he hasn't been for almost a decade, putting is Henley's problem. Still, it should improve from a miserable start and the rest of his game was excellent, no surprise given the strength of his overall form and a decent record in this.
Robertson is several levels below Henley while Jazz putted well in a round of 80, which followed rounds of 85 and 80 last week. Throw in some likely fatigue having flown in from Kentucky and it seems generous in the extreme to make him a 5/2 chance. Henley was 4/9 in places on Thursday and should perhaps be shorter than that against these two.
It's unlikely though that those who like to get stuck in at a short price will be able to so (he's 4/11 with Paddy Power) so I'll stick to more widely available selections and recommend VICTOR PEREZ next.
The Frenchman was outscored by both playing partners in round one but I highly doubt Darren Clarke will beat him twice and in a likely match with Thomas Pieters, the proven links credentials of Perez make more appeal at the prices and in these conditions.
His approach play was very good on Thursday, another sign that his game is coming around, and Pieters has the profile of someone whose performance on one day doesn't always serve as a guide to his performance on the following one. He shot 69-76 at the US PGA and I don't mind taking him on as favourite.
Backing three-ball winners on day one to repeat the feat doesn't always provide much in the way of value as markets overreact to a single round of golf, but in the case of SEAMUS POWER there might be.
Going into Thursday he was understandably the outsider of three after withdrawing from the Scottish Open, but he struck the ball seriously well and then allayed any fitness concerns in his post-round interview, declaring that he felt no soreness in his hip.
Given how well he played that's enough to put him up ahead of compatriot and former World Cup teammate Padraig Harrington and LIV Golf's Talor Gooch. Harrington is the threat but the value surely lies with 2/1 shot Power.
Laurie Canter is tempting to do the double on Sami Valimaki and Yannik Paul while Dan Bradbury might do better in a group where he's the class act, but the only other option who held any real appeal was Dustin Johnson in the morning wave.
He's out to 5/4 to beat Emiliano Grillo and Sahith Theegala after Grillo won this three-ball by eight, but the Argentine wouldn't be the most reliable conveyance now he tees off in the lead in a major championship.
It would be no surprise whatsoever were it roles reversed and Johnson at odds-against looks the bet of the morning.
Posted at 2130 BST on 20/07/23