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Open Championship first-round leader and three-ball best bets and accumulators

By Ben Coley
Golf
Thu July 20, 2023 · 1y ago

In his final pre-tournament preview, Ben Coley looks at the first-round leader and three-ball markets and provides a range of selections.

Golf betting tips: Open Championship three-balls

1pt treble Meronk, Kitayama and Oosthuizen at 9/1 (BoyleSports)

1pt double Michael Kim and Langasque at 6/1 (bet365)

1pt double Ferguson and Warren at 11/2 (Unibet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Ferguson to beat Nakajima and Arnaus (1426)

There's been money for Keita Nakajima, an in-form youngster with bags of talent, but he missed the cut in all three majors last year and averaged almost 75. This is worlds away from his native Japan and the nature of most golf courses upon which he's built a strong set of form figures.

In contrast, EWEN FERGUSON has finished fourth and 12th in his last two starts, both here in the UK. He has winning amateur form at Hoylake and is a Qatar Masters champion, like so many Open specialists down the years. He should expect to play well and remains generally underrated.

Adri Arnaus also has bags of talent, but his results since April read MC-MC-MC-70-MC-72-68. He's wild off the tee, inconsistent with his approaches, unreliable around the green and dependent on his putter at the moment, a pale shadow of the golfer who looked set for the top of the DP World Tour early last year.

Warren to beat Elvira and Canizares (1532)

Finally, MARC WARREN might not be a player to rely on but in this group he has to be worth an interest at almost 2/1.

Warren hadn't been far away for a little while before finishing fourth in Denmark, just behind Nacho Elvira who he's in with here. Many then will prefer the Spaniard, but his links record is poor and it's worth noting that Warren leads their round-by-round head-to-head this year, the score reading 17-11-4.

That might surprise a few and confirms that Warren has played some solid golf at times. With a strong links record including a good performance here in 2014, he has the edge not only over Elvira but also Alejandro Canizares, a short-hitting veteran who is probably fortunate to be in the field and has been out since March.

Kim to beat Shinkwin and Higa (1158)

Having been keen to oppose Kazuki Higa, at first I was frustrated to see he'd been pitched in with two players who aren't necessarily easy to split. One has the 2023 form, the other is proven under these conditions.

However, Callum Shinkwin struggled off the tee in Scotland and has missed seven cuts in a row now, shooting some big scores at times including an 81 at the exposed Bernardus. By contrast, MICHAEL KIM has been competitive in some top-tier PGA Tour events throughout a generally strong season.

The world rankings have Shinkwin marginally ahead, but DataGolf rate Kim about 200 places higher and that's a better reflection of current form. Kim, who played well on his Open debut at Carnoustie, is entitled to be a strong favourite rather than priced as Shinkwin's equal.

Langasque to beat Todd and Smyth (1220)

Travis Smyth has played well on the Asian Tour this year but he's been out of action since May and this should be between ROMAIN LANGASQUE and Brendon Todd, with the former preferred.

While this time those DataGolf rankings understandably have Todd in front, the gap is marginal and conditions should prove more than a leveller. Langasque is a former winner of the Amateur Championship who has made two strong Open starts from three goes and contended for a Scottish Open, also winning in tough conditions in Wales.

He's a far longer and superior driver to Todd, whose long-game is a concern. Todd is one of the shortest hitters in this field and that's going to be difficult to overcome given the greenness of Hoylake's fairways and the added yards since 2014. Langasque is better prepared for and better suited to this test.

Meronk to beat Larrazabal and Iwata (0719 BST)

Under different conditions it would be possible to reach a different conclusion here, but ADRIAN MERONK boasts a significant power advantage and is far happier when there's not too much breeze around.

As such, a rain-softened Hoylake and a gentle Open introduction could provide an ideal platform for the Pole, who made the weekend on his Open debut last year. Pablo Larrazabal generally struggles to do that at the highest level and 42-year-old Hiroshi Iwata's Open record, which is dated, reads MC-MC-MC.

Oosthuizen to beat Luiten and Lamprecht (0752)

Mid-pack here in 2014 and Open champion in 2010, a peak form LOUIS OOSTHUIZEN would surely be odds-on for this three-ball, one that features amateur Christo Lamprecht as well as Joost Luiten.

Oosthuizen probably isn't at that level but things are looking up after fourth place on his latest LIV Golf start, plus sixth in DC recently. Valderrama isn't really his course and overall he's seemingly improved from the player who withdrew from the Masters.

This should be between him and Luiten, whose Open record includes a missed cut at Hoylake and nothing better than 32nd in eight tries. That's a few levels below Oosthuizen to say the least and it's only the fact his DP World Tour form is a little easier to contextualise that has the gap between them in the betting as narrow as it is.

Kitayama to beat Kanaya and Els (0836)

Completing the morning treble is KURT KITAYAMA, who is powerful, will prefer these soft conditions, and has won a big event this year. He's also gone close in a Honda Classic to underline that exposed courses seemingly suit, something we've seen in Oman and Mauritius in the past.

Here he's in with Open legend Ernie Els, who flies in from a seniors major in Ohio. Compared to Kitayama's decent Scottish Open, where he shot a second-round 65, it doesn't look the best of preparations. Takumi Kanaya meanwhile is promising but he's a short-hitting scrambler and that kind of player may be up against it early on.

Suffice to say Kitayama's top-five finish in the PGA Championship is by some way the best form line on offer and while there's always some risk attached to this wild driver, if he plays sensibly he should beat these two.

Kurt Kitayama

Golf betting tips: Open Championship first-round lead

1pt e.w. Tony Finau to lead after round one at 60/1 (BoyleSports, Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Adam Scott to lead after round one at 66/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

0.5pt e.w. Davis Riley to lead after round one at 125/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

Scroll down for three-ball selections

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Finau first on Thursday?

It should be a good day for scoring as the Open Championship begins with Royal Liverpool member Matthew Jordan striking the first tee shot at 6.35am local time.

At the time of writing there's a small chance of very light rain by the time Jordan has got into his round, but thereafter it is forecast to be dry with sunny spells and while far from hot, short sleeves should be in order.

Finding any kind of bias is therefore difficult but there is one thing that stands out among early pace-setters at the Open: virtually all of them over the last decade had been starting strongly in previous weeks.

In fact, four players have led the way in their final start before the Open and then done it again, including Rory McIlroy here in 2014. Cameron Young didn't do that but St Andrews was his third lead in just six starts, while Louis Oosthuizen in 2021 was doing it for the second time in three.

Phil Mickelson and Adam Scott finished their previous starts with low rounds, Scott's the very lowest and Mickelson's bettered by just one player, so while this market is inherently volatile, recent form has been an excellent pointer.

Under firmer conditions I might've chanced Matthew Southgate, who closed with a 61 in Denmark recently, but the course should be receptive and relatively long and I prefer DAVIS RILEY.

First at the Memorial and second up in Scotland after two of his last four opening rounds, Riley has been starting fast and he's also been firing eye-catching low rounds throughout this stretch. Among his last 12 scores you'll find two 63s, a 64 and a 65 and his game looks close.

It was encouraging to see him drive so well in Scotland, where he talked about how much of a treat it was to play this style of golf again. The Renaissance looks like it might prove a particularly good warm-up this year, because it was reasonably soft, scoreable when the wind was down, but demanding when it kicked up on Sunday.

Riley is an aggressive, streaky player whose fast starts have generally come in bunches and, at three-figure prices, he's worth a small bet to continue the USA dominance of early Open leaderboards.

It should be noted though that not since Tom Lewis in 2011 has a genuine surprise emerged. JB Holmes might be the best example in 2019 but he was only a couple of spots outside the world's top 50 and I wouldn't look much beyond Riley in 78th, with Robert MacIntyre (54th) a viable candidate if he can bounce back from Sunday's heartache.

Playing with the affable Shane Lowry and Rickie Fowler might help but not long before they head to the first, ADAM SCOTT might just prove the pick of a marquee group alongside Scottie Scheffler and Tommy Fleetwood.

Scott led the Open after an opening 64 in 2012, the year he should've won, and he's got course form courtesy of two strong Hoylake performances. On both occasions he sat inside the top 10 after the first round and stayed there for most of the week.

In recent years he's paid the price for sluggish starts but second rounds of 66 and 65 across the last two renewals demonstrate his scoring prowess under these conditions, and his game right now looks in better shape.

Six of Scott's last eight opening rounds have left him inside the top 10, two of them in major championships, and while last Thursday's 72 in Scotland was disappointing he at least put it behind him with a Friday 67. Perhaps he can build on that in a tournament he'll still feel capable of winning.

Yannik Paul is a habitual fast starter albeit at a lower level for those looking for an upset while I did consider whether this might be the way to chance Justin Thomas at inflated odds. He started well enough last week and while his Open record is modest, he sat fourth, sixth and eighth after the first round in his first three goes.

TONY FINAU plays alongside Thomas and as something of the forgotten man this week, he'll do for me at much bigger prices than we might've expected earlier in the season.

His form is a slight worry as is the fact he elected not to search for it at The Renaissance, but Finau is an excellent links golfer who has made the cut in every Open start, and on three of the six has been inside the top five after round one.

Softer conditions will suit and while he doesn't strictly fit the bill when it comes to having been showing up well early on of late, he wasn't far away in both the Masters (13th) and the US Open (14th), before middle rounds of 66 at the Travelers.

He's narrowly preferred among the late starters to Viktor Hovland, who led the Masters, shot 63 in round two last week, and looks a prime candidate to force his way into the early reckoning. However without any hint of a draw bias I can't get involved at less than 50/1 in this of all markets.

Tony Finau could make another strong Open start

Posted at 1100 BST on 19/07/23

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