Joaquin Niemann can be forgiven a quiet week at Colonial and rates the pick of six big-priced selections for this week's Memorial Tournament.
Golf betting tips: The Memorial Tournament
1pt e.w. Joaquin Niemann at 50/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Adam Scott at 80/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Russell Henley at 80/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Kyle Stanley at 125/1 (Sky Bet, Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Aaron Wise at 125/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Camilo Villegas at 250/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
There is debate right now as to who exactly is the world's best golfer. It would have been absurd to ask back in January, when Dustin Johnson's lead in the world rankings was the product of his Masters riot a couple of months earlier, and a level of form nobody could match. Since then, one of the notable features of the season has been that Johnson and Jon Rahm have been rather stagnant, while their rivals at the top of the sport — Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau, Brooks Koepka, Collin Morikawa, even Jordan Spieth — do the winning.
Yet none of these has been able to kick on in quite the way expected, Koepka because of an injury, Morikawa because of a handicap on the greens, the others for their own reasons. Even Spieth, by some measure the form player of the last few months, missed an opportunity to underline those credentials when he failed to win the Charles Schwab Challenge on Sunday, while McIlroy's Quail Hollow win papered over the cracks in his long-game.
Rahm now begins an important month as favourite to defend his title in the Memorial Tournament, hosted by a man who will ever be involved in a larger debate as to who exactly is the best male golfer in history. One thing seems clear: if Jack Nicklaus is not first, he is second, and his decades-long pursuit of excellence can now be seen in the constant evolution of Muirfield Village, which has hosted this invitation-only event since its inception in 1976.
Nicklaus has never been one to rest on his laurels, and small changes to the fabric of a course he designed, in his home state of Ohio, have been a feature of the tournament. This year, however, is different: Nicklaus has overseen changes which include all 18 greens being dug up, a dozen of them remodelled in some way, and new tee boxes helping to add another hundred yards to the total. Most dramatically, the par-five 15th was rebuilt entirely, with new fairway bunkers and elevation changes designed to make it a good deal more difficult.
While the stated aim was to make the course better, not harder, Nicklaus has made clear what he believes represents a proper golfing challenge: thick rough, slick greens, difficult scoring conditions. And with new surfaces designed to be firmer and more repellent, yet remaining small, this looks like it should be a real test and, arguably, a good way to prepare for the US Open — another event for which Rahm may well be the favourite.
So what of his chances? On the one hand he was dominant here last year, building on a final-round 64 at the same course in a one-off tournament held the week before. Rahm, whose awesome driving is particularly useful around a long, demanding par 72 like this one, went on to win the BMW Championship, where thick rough and firm greens saw four-under par do the job. There can be no doubt he has conditions in his favour.
On the other, you're being asked to take 10/1 about a player who is not at his best. Rahm is so consistent that he can still manage top-10 finishes in six of his 10 stroke play starts this year, yet four of them came courtesy of low Sundays, and seldom if ever has he really looked like he might win. His share of eighth in the PGA, where he did everything well but nothing brilliantly until a final-round 68, embodies his year as a whole.
With Thomas's approach play numbers down significantly, DeChambeau's putter having become a problem, McIlroy still in the early stages of his work with Pete Cowen and Spieth having confessed to having no control over his swing on Sunday, the two I like best from the front of the market are the two who appear a shade underpriced: Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay.
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Schauffele has driven the ball brilliantly here, and defied an opening 78 to make it three top-20s in succession last summer, despite ranking 72nd of 74 players in putting. Such is the strength of his record in majors that a tough test like this one makes sense and his missed cut in the PGA Championship can be put down to some bizarre around-the-green numbers, and is not worth dwelling upon.
Still, 22/1 for a player who is winless in two-and-a-half years isn't quite big enough, and Cantlay would make more appeal. His last two PGA Tour wins have been in strong fields on Nicklaus-designed courses, including a Sunday tour de force here in 2019, and his long-game was back at similar levels at Kiawah Island. Expect him to play well.
Who is the best bet for the Memorial Tournament?
But with those uncertainties around just how differently the course will play, I've no hesitation in starting a more speculative staking plan with JOAQUIN NIEMANN, despite a disappointing performance at Colonial.
Ultimately, Niemann didn't hit enough fairways to give himself decent changes down in Texas, and his short-game was poor. Nevertheless it was another cut made and he was well on course to finish much higher than an eventual share of 50th before a couple of costly late mistakes.
Before that, he'd enjoyed his first taste of contention in a major championship and in general his game looks in excellent shape for this massive month, one which he'll feel represents real opportunity given his history at Torrey Pines, and how well he's performed here in the past.
Sixth on debut, Niemann was mid-pack on his next two starts before missing the cut last summer, but his tee-to-green performances were consistent across this quartet of visits. He simply putted horribly on the most recent of them, but in general he is good on bentgrass and there can be no doubt he's improved that aspect of his game in the interim.
Perhaps new greens will allow him to wipe the slate clean and I certainly like the fact he's one of the longest and best drivers on the PGA Tour. Nicklaus courses are so often described as 'second shot', and he does like to give players a little room off the tee, but there can be no doubt strong drivers have thrived here in the past. That applies particularly to Rahm, Cantlay and DeChambeau, the last three champions, but also to shock winner David Lingmerth.
An above-average scrambler, another aspect which has been important and should be all the more so if these new, firm greens prove even harder to hit, Niemann was third behind Rahm at Olympia Fields in that brutal BMW Championship, and if he can just hit two or three more fairways per round I think he'll be involved here.
Aussie looks overpriced despite form doubts
Tony Finau was selected for the same event last summer at 60/1, and returns at less than half the price. Granted his form appears a little stronger but he's basically the same player, complete with his charms and pitfalls, and if there is value there I can't see it.
Marc Leishman is more tempting at the same price he was for the PGA Championship, especially given that he's gone well here in the past, but his driving is a concern and I prefer compatriot ADAM SCOTT.
True, Scott has struggled off the tee this year and there's no doubt he comes with risks attached, but he does love it at Muirfield Village and was an unfortunate loser in 2019. Despite getting the better of fellow major champion Martin Kaymer in the final group, Scott was mugged by Cantlay's sensational 64, one of the rounds of the season.
Scott was world-class from tee-to-green that week, just as he had been a year earlier when hamstrung by the putter, and all told he's missed one cut in 12 visits, placing four times to go with a polished Presidents Cup display in 2013.
A winner of the Honda Classic at PGA National, Scott has long been effective on Nicklaus layouts and that's probably no surprise, given that at his best he's been one of the finest iron players of his generation. He's also been most effective on tough courses, having won by two in 11-under at Riviera last February, while his biggest successes — in the Masters and at Firestone — both correlate really well with Muirfield Village.
The problem is his form, and there's an argument he's the elite player who has suffered the most for golf's suspension last spring, soon after he'd won the Genesis to climb to sixth in the world. Now 41st, he has to show that he isn't simply on the decline, and that he remains capable of contending for and winning events like this one.
His missed cut at the PGA last time doesn't exactly help strengthen the case for Scott remaining capable, but it is worth noting he was one shot away, having started off with a disastrous triple-bogey. Maybe he can take heart from it, but most of all I am drawn to the fighting talk he produced on the eve of the season's second major.
"I've done what I needed to do since the Masters to get my game in better shape," he told AAP. "I was spinning my wheels, so I had to change my mindset. I had to lay the cards on the table and be honest with myself and start with a clean slate because what I had been doing wasn't getting me to where I wanted to be.
"I've made some moves that feel very familiar from when I was playing consistently at the top level. I've made decisions that have put me back in that frame of mind and then I've backed it up with the timing around my practice and training."
Talk is cheap, but Scott would be about the last player on the PGA Tour to be bullish without reason, and the combination of a course he's always adored and the price we can get makes him a bet.
Row in with Henley
Gary Woodland and Rickie Fowler are others on the comeback trail who make some appeal but next is RUSSELL HENLEY, who seems a straightforward option at 80/1.
Henley has eight top-10 finishes since the beginning of last year, and five have been on Nicklaus courses (or four, if you don't count Harbour Town). So too was the biggest win of his career, in the Honda Classic, and he's hit the frame at this course twice in the past, including last summer.
Given that he often repeats at the same venues — it would be fair to say he could've won both the Honda and the Houston Open more than once, and that he's played excellent golf on several occasions at the Sony — he has to be of some appeal when returning to Muirfield Village, and some low-key efforts of late help hold up the price.
Crucially, his approach play, which for a long time now has been the key strength of his game, was better at Kiawah Island. There, he did really well to make the cut from 127th after round one, and the same is true of the Wells Fargo, where he climbed from 111th. On neither occasion did he kick on, but he can nevertheless take pride in the fight, which is very much typical of the man.
It's only four starts since a field-leading set of strokes-gained approach figures helped secure that latest top-10 finish at Harbour Town, and it was his ball-striking which helped him to seventh place in the Workday Charity Open here last June, as he ranked a lowly 53rd in putting.
Now, we will probably need something better but two of the last eight events held here have been won despite worse-than-average putting returns (Jason Dufner and Hideki Matsuyama), while the fact Tiger Woods dominated at Muirfield Village, and Morikawa beat Thomas in a play-off here, tells you a lot about the worth of quality iron play.
Henley's can be spectacular and it can be poor, more often the former given that he ranks seventh for the season. That volatility is no bad thing at the prices and with two of his three top-fives this season having come at courses designed by Nicklaus, he's worth backing to adapt to whatever these changes bring.
KYLE STANLEY is another who fits the profile of a top-class ball-striker whose iron play in particular can be awesome, although it's also true that his putting can be abysmal.
Still, he's actually gained strokes in three of his last visits here, only marginally worse than average on the other occasion, and three top-sixes from eight goes in total is an excellent return for a player who has never ranked higher than 26th in the world.
That tells you how much he enjoys the course, and as far as timing goes his late invite here is perfect. Last week, Stanley was eighth in the Charles Schwab Challenge despite ranking 66th in putting, and before that he was 26th at Quail Hollow following a similarly poor display on the greens.
There's a clear risk he again fails to make his share, but Stanley led the field in strokes-gained approach at Colonial, the second time he's done so this season, and the signs had been there on his previous start. There's no doubt his best long-game is a match for just about anyone and both wins have been under fairly difficult conditions, most recently over in Maryland at the Quicken Loans National, played at the long and difficult TPC Potomac.
Wise wager at 125/1?
Tempted as I am by Danny Willett, who might be close to a big week and has played well on both starts here, I'll finish off with AARON WISE and CAMILO VILLEGAS.
Wise finished 17th in the PGA Championship a fortnight ago, having earlier this season opened 64-64 to lead the Honda Classic. He's also been second and ninth at Quail Hollow, a long, classical par 72 where thick rough is a feature, while his sole start at Firestone, here in Ohio, saw him finish sixth.
Firestone used to be an excellent guide to this, with surprise champions Lingmerth and William McGirt both factors there, and it's a shame it's no longer part of the schedule. Still, Wise's performance there in 2018 marks him down as one who could be more effective at Muirfield Village than form figures of MC-MC-MC imply.
Clearly he does need to go out and prove as much but his ball-striking stats have got better with each visit, and last year he sat third after round one before a poor second round saw him miss the cut on the number, just as he had in 2019. It was, however, tangible evidence that the course is one he can master, and it's certainly one which plays to his strengths as a big-hitter whose only weakness right now is the putter.
"I figured in order to play these tough golf courses, the majors, WGCs, I had to become a better ball striker, and I worked hard on that, and in that process I kind of lost my putting and lost my chipping a little bit," he explained at Kiawah Island.
"That's been a big focus for me this last year or so, to get that back on track, and now I feel like I'm kind of in the sweet spot where I'm hitting the ball good, I'm chipping great, and my putting is kind of coming back into form and I'm seeing some good numbers around some really tough golf courses."
Come the end of the week, Wise had produced his best putting stats in almost two years, and if he can marry that improvement with the rest of his game then he'll soon remind us all why everyone was talking about him back in that breakout 2018 campaign.
Finally, Villegas would be the story of the week were he to win and I don't necessarily think it's beyond him at 250/1.
He's another former winner of the Honda Classic and it's probably not a coincidence that his best effort in a productive spell of golf this spring came back there, when eighth behind runaway winner Matt Jones.
Since then he's been 17th in Texas, 25th in the Heritage and 11th in the Valspar, a solid run of form undermined just slightly when he finished down the field at Colonial. Still, he was generally 100/1 there and has a poor record at the course, while the fact he remained sharp around the greens is at least a positive as it's that and his approach work which we'll need to fire.
Villegas has the advantage of stacks of course experience, and he's made his last 10 cuts at Muirfield Village which, for a volatile player who has struggled with injuries, demonstrates a certain level of comfort which he wouldn't have had last week. Hopefully enough of the paintwork remains familiar, and he can strengthen a personal bond with the tournament host having received an invite to play.
Above all else, his form lately has been very promising and he could threaten the places, and perhaps even the very top of the leaderboard in an event where taking a few chances makes sense in the circumstances.
Posted at 1230 BST on 01/06/21
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