Golf betting tips: AT&T Byron Nelson
2pts e.w. KH Lee in AT&T Byron Nelson at 5/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3)
It’s been a leap into the unknown this year at the AT&T Byron Nelson as after two years at the Trinity Forest course, the event headed to pastures new in the shape of TPC Craig Ranch.
Prior to the tournament the speculation was that the venue, which features wide fairways and minimal rough, would offer up plenty of birdie opportunities with low scoring being the order of the day.
And this has proved to be the case, even with the wind giving the course more defence on Saturday, there was nothing to stop the leader reaching 20 under par.
Sam Burns leads the way
The man who sits on the top of the pile on that number is a familiar name to this column of late, Sam Burns.
Arriving in Texas after taking a week off following his maiden tour title at the Valspar Burns, he has been brimming with confidence and with his aggressive game perfect for this track, he now finds himself with the lead, or a share of it, heading into Sunday for the fourth time this season.
Burns’ score this week has been built around his long game as he currently sits first in strokes-gained-from-tee-to-green and third in approach play.
He has also made mincemeat of the par fives, playing them 12-under-par for the first 54 holes. If he continues to take them apart in a similar manner today, while just going steadily about his business elsewhere, it's hard to see the man from Louisiana not going home with the trophy and becoming the first player since Camillo Villegas in 2008 to win his first two PGA Tour titles in consecutive starts.
Golf being the game it is, things invariably don’t play out quite as simply as that though and with Burns looking the shakiest he has this week in his 69 on Saturday, particularly with the putter where lost just under 1.5 strokes to the field, I am happy to pass him by at the general 11/8.
One of the main reasons that the short odds available on Burns don't appeal is the weather forecast, which calls for some rain overnight and more storms from mid morning through to the early afternoon.
As a result tee times have been brought forward with the first groups heading out at 7am local time and the leaders at 9am. More importantly the players will play lift, clean and place and will have a chance to ‘throw darts’ at a soft course.
With 13 players within five shots of the lead heading in to the final round I'm not intersted in such short odds when 63s and 62s could well be out there.
Why is KH Lee the bet?
So if we're taking on Burns who's the bet? Well the man who sits closest to him going in to Sunday is KH Lee who starts on 19-under, one shot back.
Lee, who posted his best result on tour when finishing second on the Tom Weiskopf redesigned TPC Scottsdale earlier this year, has been playing solidly of late so it can’t be said that his performance this week is a complete bolt from the blue.
Strong across the bag this week, ranking third from tee to green, sixth in approach play and perhaps most significantly 20th in putting, a huge improvement on his season's ranking of 178th, Lee has not made a bogey since the 11th hole on Thursday.
When he posted his second place finish in Phoenix in January Lee was impressive on Sunday, closing with a 68 and he was right in the hunt until a birdie putt just slipped by on 18.
After that near-miss the 29-year-old talked about how he had been a little nervous on the day and that hopefully the next time he found himself in the same situation he would control the nerves a bit better and go on to post his maiden PGA Tour win.
Well, he is in that position again now and with an each-way safety net of three places available I am happy to trust him to do so and jump on board at the general 5/1.
Who else could win?
Heading down the leaderboard, two shots further back in third place on 17-under we find the quartet of Jordan Spieth, Charl Schwartzel, Matt Kuchar and Alex Noren.
Home favourite Spieth has a fantastic record in Texas in general, however in this event he has been largely underwhelming over the years and has been unable to better his 16th place finish as a 16-year-old amateur many years ago.
After starting like a house on fire on Thursday with a 63, a struggle on the greens on Friday and Saturday has held him back somewhat but an eagle putt from off the surface on his final hole of the third round breathed fresh life in to his challenge.
While anything is possible from Spieth, I can’t get the sight of the short missed putts on Saturday out of my head and it may just be that his enforced absence since the Masters due to a bout of Covid means this week is more about shaking off some rust before next week's PGA.
Those who followed Ben Coley’s pre-tournament picks will be hoping that one of the pair of Schwartzel and Kuchar can get the job done.
Of the two my preference would be for Schwartzel who has been playing nicely for a few weeks now and whose long game was hugely impressive on Saturday. However the South African is winless anywhere since 2016 and it could be the case that on a day when he will need to go low, his putter, which has performed a little worse each day, lets him down.
Similarly Kuchar looked a little edgy down the stretch on Saturday and my suspicion is that a birdie-fest on a sodden course won't play into his hands either.
With a host of players within five shots of the lead who will fancy producing a low one to pinch the trophy, it'ss tempting to add a second selection at big each-way odds but with so many vagaries with today's weather I will simply stick with Lee and watch the drama unfold.
Published at 0945 BST on 16/05/21