Free golf betting tips: Preview and best bets for the Genesis Invitational
Golf betting tips: Genesis Invitational
4pts e.w. Rory McIlroy at 12/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
3pts e.w. Patrick Cantlay at 16/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Marc Leishman at 66/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
Sky Bet odds - eight places | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
At least one too many multi-course events and the time difference from Pacific to Greenwich are very good reasons to be a little dismissive of the west coast swing, but there can be no denying it has kept golf fans drinking between compressed renewals of the Masters. From Si Woo Kim's ballsy dismissal of a challenging clubhouse total, to Patrick Reed being all Patrick Reed, that barnstorming Brooks Koepka finish, and then Daniel Berger slamming the door shut at Pebble Beach, it has been an engrossing four weeks. And that is to say nothing of Jordan Spieth.
Now, it's time for the big party that ends it all for another year as a world-class field descends on Riviera Country Club on the outskirts of LA. If you know golf, chances are you know this course from start to finish, and while Pebble Beach and Torrey Pines help conjure those major championship memories, and Phoenix might provide a more instant and obvious type of gratification, there's nothing quite like the Riv. It's fitting that while many of the key players have crossed swords at some level, it's here that they come together for the first time since Augusta, for what is the best Augusta marker so far this year.
Whoever wins the Genesis Invitational will have seen off some of the biggest names in the sport, and that would earn them a place on the radar for the Masters regardless. But something deeper lies within: the crossover from this course in California to Augusta National in Georgia was a particularly strong one even before Dustin Johnson became the latest man to do the double, with Bubba Watson, Adam Scott, Phil Mickelson and Mike Weir the other more recent additions to a list which begins with the name Sam Snead.
Johnson's victory in 2017 was the most dominant in over 30 years, and having wisely skipped the A&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am he returns as the man to beat. That he's less than half of last year's 14/1 reflects his return to the summit of the sport since then, and it's easy to argue he's never been better than he is now. So dominant has he become that a bad putting week couldn't stop him in Saudi Arabia and having doubled up there, he's hard to ignore in his attempt to do the same here.
The issue is he's now shorter with some firms to beat Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Brooks Koepka, Collin Morikawa, Adam Scott, Spieth, Berger... none of whom played in that event. The Genesis is significantly tougher, and did we really learn anything more about him a fortnight ago? Of course not. That isn't to say he's the wrong price as such – perhaps he ought to have been 11/4 in the Gulf – but having been just a little underwhelming here lately (by his standards), I don't mind missing out should he go in at 11/2 or 6/1.
By contrast I am of the view – possibly a minority one – that RORY MCILROY is the biggest danger to him and despite having been let down in Phoenix, I'm really keen to give him another chance in an event which will likely be won by someone from the very top level of the sport.
My overall impression is that the PGA Tour is stronger now than it has ever been, and to some extent that's reflected in results – particularly since it returned last June. Stacked fields in the rush to get competitive again produced a run of elite champions, and it was only when the level dipped appreciably that somebody else was allowed in, such as Michael Thompson in the 3M Open, Jim Herman at the Wyndham, or even Carlos Ortiz on the eve of the Masters.
Looking back over the last two years, there has been only one big surprise in a world-class PGA Tour event, and it came post-Augusta when CT Pan opportunistically won the RBC Heritage. Otherwise, even slightly peculiar winners like Jason Kokrak and Chez Reavie were hovering around the world's top 50, and the message is clear: when the company is as hot as it is this week, bets away from the front portion of the market are almost certainly vying for places only.
That again brings in Augusta parallels, and these are among the events where I'm most happy to get stuck in at the top of the market. McIlroy then, who of course has strong Masters form to his name, boasts the best adjusted scoring average in this field over the last five years (two-plus starts) and looks like he's ready to win again having been distracted and below his best when golf returned last summer.
It's true that he was disappointing on Sunday in Abu Dhabi, and even more so when his Phoenix Open hopes all but vanished in one hole. Still, it's a sign of where his game is that having been three-over through two holes in an event which was won in 19-under, McIlroy ended the week inside the top 20. That's the sort of performance which on the one hand cultivates certain narratives relating to him, but on McIlroy's side of things I expect he took further confidence from it.
Now he returns to Riviera, where he's placed on each of his last two visits having been just a little further down on his first two. Like Augusta, it's a course which generally takes some learning (Scott's debut win came in a 36-hole edition; otherwise it's rare to overcome that disadvantage) and it's the sort of tree-lined, old-fashioned layout he's long been particularly fond off. The best driver here by some distance across the four renewals he's featured in, McIlroy has also putted these greens better than many of his rivals and a solid week with his approaches should have him in contention.
Of course, we can't afford the start he made in Phoenix, but that was a freak occurrence. His drive flew further than he thought possible, and he then inexplicably played a bunker shot without asking Schauffele to mark his ball, which was just an inch or two away. Infuriating though that was, it shouldn't mask the quality of his golf since the birth of his daughter, and to my eye he's back in the form which saw him start this event as favourite 12 months ago.
Typically, the winner of this has played in California or Phoenix, another edge McIlroy may have over Johnson and DeChambeau, and I'll be surprised if he's not in the mix. Given the top-heavy nature of the event, that's more than enough reason to get stuck-in each-way.
Part of the case for McIlroy is that there are a few slight concerns relating to his rivals towards the top of the betting. Thomas for instance has some good form here and ought to have won the title in 2019, but when things have gone wrong he hasn't been able to limit the damage – hence more rounds of 74 or higher than DJ in half the appearances, with Mcllroy also far more tidy on his off-days.
Rahm is respected as always, but there's no denying he's ridden a hot putter on both starts here and following his off-season equipment changes, I don't think backers can rely on history repeating. Perhaps he'll figure things out as he goes but his approach play at Riviera has been particularly poor, and for now he still looks one to treat with caution.
Schauffele's performance on Sunday in Phoenix was very disappointing and Koepka, now half the price he was for that weaker event, needs to improve on his past performances here. Riviera is one of the strongest courses on the PGA Tour when it comes to consistency of form so his record of MC-43 is troubling, besides which he's so often been really poor in the immediate aftermath of victory.
In a roundabout way I'm trying to say that while the winner should be obvious, there are only two I really like at the front so PATRICK CANTLAY goes in with McIlroy.
In an event where greens in regulation remains a decent starting point, I'm encouraged by the fact that both have led the field here in the past, and in Cantlay's case we have one of the form players on the circuit returning to one of his favourite courses.
Ignore a pair of missed cuts which came early in his career; Cantlay has been fourth, 15th and 17th here since returning from serious injury and his approach play has powered that run of success. One of the beauties of Riviera is that there is no one way to go about it, but the most consistent indicator is certainly iron play and he's shown that he can produce his best at a course he knows really well.
Right now, Cantlay's approach work is just about as good as it has ever been and he will feel as though he should've won at Pebble Beach, where instead he had to watch Berger produce the putts needed down the stretch. Cantlay's weekend woe on the greens shouldn't overly concern backers as he's been putting well for quite a while now and we should instead focus on the strength of his long-game, which could so easily have carried him to back-to-back victories given that scintillating run in the AmEx.
Instead, his form reads 2-3 but he'd gone 3-3 prior to winning the Memorial a couple of summers ago, and Riviera is equally suitable. In fact all three PGA Tour titles have come at courses he loves, hence a run of 2-2-8 since winning at Summerlin and top-seven finishes either side of that impressive Muirfield Village success, the other coming here in his home state of California in the Zozo Championship.
When winning at Scott's expense in the Memorial, Cantlay was building on an outstanding tee-to-green display in the US PGA on his previous start, and having flushed his way through last week I can see history repeating. Moreover, while his relatively sparse trophy cabinet is something of a worry, we're compensated by the fact that he's more than doubled in price despite strengthening his credentials. Remember, Johnson is set to go off even shorter than in Saudi Arabia as things stand.
The field at Pebble Beach was weak, but I would much rather take Cantlay at each-way prices in world-class company. He got the better of Rahm and Thomas to win the Zozo and it strikes me as a little odd that he's about the same price for this as he was a year ago, despite having climbed the world rankings and won since, and despite his form being considerably better.
That reflects how strong the field for the Genesis Invitational is, but with eight places to go at I'm more than happy to side with one of the few players here whose confidence can match Johnson's. Cantlay was bullish all week at Pebble Beach, and it may be that his reward for such quality play so far in 2021 has simply been delayed by seven days.
I wrote last year that Morikawa would do well to finish 20th or so given his inexperience, and that's why I passed him up at 50/1. In the end he finished 26th, showcasing his now trademark iron play, and in the process underlining that while he hasn't played here that often despite being an LA man, it is a course which should suit. Having since becoming a major champion here in California, 30/1 is a fair reflection of his chance and he's hard to pass over.
Similarly, Viktor Hovland featured alongside Morikawa in the 2017 US Amateur here, but makes his debut in the Genesis. I'm not at all bothered that he played poorly in the US Am which was won by Doc Redman at the expense of Doug Ghim, but I do worry with all these youngsters – world-class or not – that Riviera really is the type of venue which often catches them out.
Hovland might overcome such trivialities as he threatened to at Torrey Pines and was the last off my list, but I am inclined to side with a little nous and make MARC LEISHMAN the final selection.
Leishman landed the each-way money with an excellent weekend in the Sony Open, at a course he loves, and he could do something similar here having placed at Riviera on two of his last five visits.
Again, he helps to underline the need for a few looks as, by his own admission, a course he calls 'one of my favourites all year' nevertheless took him a while to figure out.
"When I first came here, this is actually one of the courses I thought I would be able to do really well around," he said when first getting amongst it. "But for some reason, the last few years, I've just struggled to make the cut. Feel like I've been fighting on Friday just to be around for the weekend.
"Yeah, it's a course that I feel like I can do well around, if I'm playing well. And I feel like I'm striking the ball pretty well at the moment."
That was in 2016, when his form coming in read 28-MC-MC, and this time he's wiped the slate clean following a poor end to 2020 by finishing 24th in the Tournament of Champions, fourth in the Sony Open, and then 18th when defending his title at Torrey Pines a fortnight ago.
This sustained run of consistent, quality golf marks a real upturn for the world number 33 and I love the fact it's been powered by his iron play, having ranked eighth, fourth and 20th in strokes-gained approach so far. That department has fired on his last two visits to Riviera, and with the putter warming up it puts him in a really strong position.
"I'm feeling good," was his assessment ahead of the Farmers. "The Sony Open was great, I played well at Maui as well, just putted a little better at Sony. It's been well documented I didn't have my best stuff towards the middle and end of last year after we had the break. I've got that under control now and that's in the past."
Those words and the robustness of his form so far this year make Leishman an obvious contender, and unlike many on offer at 50/1 and bigger he's shown that he's more than capable of winning in this sort of company. He too brings form from Augusta to the table, the kikuyu grass you'll hear about all week is probably a positive, and I like his chances.
There will of course be some bigger priced players in the mix, but those who made their way onto my shortlist weren't quite strong enough candidates to make the staking plan. Cameron Davis is hitting the ball well and building confidence with the putter so is respected but it's odd to see him so close in the betting to someone like Matt Fitzpatrick, 30th on his debut here, inside the world's top 20, and set to enjoy pretty firm conditions.
Fitz is definitely one to consider along with Chez Reavie, who contended for this in 2016, bagged a second top-10 finish last year, and found his long-game at Pebble Beach. When Reavie flushed his way through the 2019 US Open, also at Pebble Beach, he carried that with him to victory next time out, and it's not impossible that he repeats the trick given his field-leading approach play in the Pro-Am, and small uptick for putting on poa annua greens.
Reavie and Redman could reward top-20 plays – the latter is hitting it really well again and just needs to find something with the putter – while Charley Hoffman, placed last week after a low Sunday, is a Californian with course form and some kind of chance. Perhaps some of these will feature in a specials preview later in the week, which in itself reflects the fact that as far as the pre-PLAYERS schedule goes, it doesn't get much better than this.
Posted at 2000 GMT on 15/02/21
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