Dustin Johnson is worth backing to return to winning ways in the Valspar Championship, according to in-form golf expert Ben Coley.
Golf betting tips: Valspar Championship
4pts win Dustin Johnson at 11/1 (General)
2pts e.w. Sungjae Im at 30/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Bubba Watson at 60/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Keegan Bradley at 70/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Sam Burns at 80/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
0.5pt e.w. Luke List at 175/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
Sky Bet odds - eight places | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
The Valspar Championship returns to fill a peculiar slot on the PGA Tour schedule, more than two years on from Paul Casey's second successive victory. In some ways, it is fitting: Copperhead is considered to be quite apart from the Florida courses which made up the spring swing, and it is now separated from them not only by looks, but by date. Tree-lined and undulating, some say it's a classic Carolinas course, but for the fact it is in Palm Harbour, and it's a different challenge to PGA National and the Honda Classic.
One thing it does share in common with the previous stop in the Sunshine State is a three-hole stretch with its own moniker, and there's little doubt the Snake Pit, complete with its own terrifying statue, makes for a demanding finish. It also embodies the course, in many ways: you might say Copperhead snakes its way through the trees, and one common refrain is that to succeed here requires shaping the ball both ways.
That's why it has been the domain of the premiere ball-striker, for the most part. Not only has Casey won twice, but on the second occasion he got the better of Jason Kokrak and Louis Oosthuizen, whose subsequent putting improvements do not alter the fact they're long and accurate. You could say the same about many past champions, Charl Schwartzel and Gary Woodland included, while John Senden and Kevin Streelman are filed under 'fairways and greens'.
There's been room for shorter hitters, the likes of Adam Hadwin and Luke Donald for instance, with Jordan Spieth filling the space in-between, and if there is a commonality between this layout and the likes of PGA National, it's that driving distance hasn't been everything. In fact, three of the last four winners here lost strokes off the tee, a surprising statistic which suggests, given that poor putters have also gone well, that it's the second shot which really counts.
With comparisons drawn to Harbour Town, it's possible to argue that Copperhead nullifies the advantage some of the sport's elite players hold. But I don't think it's quite so straightforward, with driver more of an option here, and perhaps Riviera — where many of the above have gone well — is a better comparison. For clues, look there and to TPC River Highlands, another corridor-course which is a favourite of Casey, and where Streelman secured his other PGA Tour title a year after his victory here.
All these roads lead to DUSTIN JOHNSON and while far from a confident selection, at 11/1 in a mid-tier tournament I am very keen to get him on-side.
Johnson started the year in much the same vein that he'd ended 2020, finishing 11th, first and eighth across his first three starts, and yet there was cause for alarm. Only on the European Tour did he have a chance to win, one he took, and his driving at Riviera and in the Tournament of Champions was not up to scratch.
There was a suspicion that he was not actually playing that well, certainly not close to the levels of his Masters demolition, and that proved to be the case as he endured a run of 54-48-28-MC, latterly suffering the same fate as so many defending champions before him at Augusta National.
But while there were still some areas of concern at Harbour Town a week later, it was highly encouraging to see him lead in strokes-gained off-the-tee en route to 13th at a course which just doesn't allow him to do what he wants to do. Perhaps tellingly, he was 17th there last June, seemingly out of sorts at the time, and went on to win the Travelers Championship on his very next start.
That victory at River Highlands, combined with an excellent record at Riviera, where he won by five in 2017, suggests Copperhead might in fact be a good fit. And there's some evidence this is true: despite missing two cuts early in his career, Johnson returned in 2019 and sat second after 54 holes, only to suffer a difficult final round and slip to sixth.
All of this leads me to conclude that 11/1, a bigger price than he was at Augusta with most firms, is worth taking. Typically, backing one of the favourites requires a degree of confidence, but on this occasion it's more to do with my belief that he fundamentally ought to be favourite. Johnson has won at about a one-in-12 strike-rate over a 13-year period, but since he became a major champion in 2016 it's closer to one-in-seven.
That alone wouldn't be sufficient, but I like his game for Copperhead, and there was enough in his Harbour Town performance to suggest he's ready to remind us why he's the top-ranked player in the sport by quite a distance. Having put his Masters defence behind him, and with a major in his home state just weeks away, expect a focused Johnson to contend again.
Justin Thomas has a similarly impressive winning record and is typically the elite player I'm most keen to side with. That's because he's often several points bigger than some of his contemporaries, but on this occasion he's shorter than Johnson, despite a modest record at the course, and he might be happy to use this as a tune-up towards a return to Quail Hollow next week, where he won the 2017 PGA Championship.
Beyond these two we've a clutch of obvious contenders but Corey Conners looks very short, Viktor Hovland lacks experience here, Casey will surprise me if he wins three in a row and Tyrrell Hatton has misfired recently and shot 81 on his last visit to Copperhead. That leaves Patrick Reed and SUNGJAE IM and it's the latter who is again preferred.
There's a slightly uncomfortable feeling attached to putting up the South Korean, because it feels a little predictable. He played well last time, he placed on his debut here, he's excellent on bermuda greens and in Florida in particular, and it will be obvious to anyone who visits these pages regularly that I'm a big fan.
Then again, that rather looks like a list of good reasons to back him and at 30/1, he looks a very decent price, particularly with eight places on offer, having bounced back from a nightmare return to Augusta with a share of 13th place at Harbour Town.
Despite it being a seemingly good fit on paper, Im was yet to produce there but in ranking 14th off the tee and 18th with his approaches, along with the typically strong putting performance on his favoured surface, he answered a lot of questions surrounding the state of his game.
Approach play may well be key here, and his had been poor for a few months, which likely cost him in the Masters. However, the numbers he produced in the RBC Heritage represented his best work since the very first event of the year, and if he does dial in his irons, he is certainly ready to win his second PGA Tour title.
Florida is as good a place as any, as he showed in the Honda last year, and in 10 starts Im now has eight top-30s, five top-10s, and on four occasions has had a genuine chance to win. Any concern that Copperhead isn't a typical Florida course is allayed by the fact he was fourth here on his debut, striking the ball in the manner of someone who had immediately found comfort, and that came during his rookie season and a year before he was a winner at this level.
Im ranked 15th, second, seventh and fifth in putting during the Florida swing earlier in the year and was inside the top 10 at some stage in all four events. Following a much-improved display at Hilton Head, I'll be disappointed if he isn't again in contention and he looks among the chief threats to the favourites.
Abraham Ancer has also come a long way since finishing 16th on his sole start here back in 2018. Ranked 246th in the world at the time, he's climbed more than 200 places since, despite not yet winning on the PGA Tour, and his strong weekend performance back then is all the more impressive given that he barely made a putt.
With form figures of 18-22-18-23-26-18 he's very much the final player off my list, but at a bigger price BUBBA WATSON is preferred.
Known as one of the most horses-for-courses players on the circuit, half of Watson's 12 PGA Tour wins have come at Riviera and TPC River Highlands, with two more at Augusta, and all of this points to Copperhead as a potential venue to end what's now a three-year drought.
He wasn't far from winning here in 2019, finishing fourth, and it was only a shocking 36 holes with the putter which forced an early exit in 2017, his only other recent visit. Back in 2010, he was third when still a PGA Tour maiden, and he was 19th in 2007, too, so in eight fragmented appearances he's placed twice and done well on a couple of other occasions.
At 60th in the world rankings he has plenty to play for, not least a Ryder Cup place. Watson lost a play-off for the PGA Championship at Whistling Straits in 2010, which was enough to earn him a Ryder Cup debut; it was a bittersweet moment for a man whose dream was to play for his country, one he realised the following month.
After a poor performance on an unsuitable course in Paris, Watson will be desperate to be involved back at the same course in Wisconsin for what would likely be his Ryder Cup swansong, but to do so is going to require a win. It seems as clearcut as that to me, and Copperhead is one of the handful of courses on which he can be fancied to do it.
A run to the last-16 in the Match Play followed by a decent Masters effort suggests his form is improving, and at 16th in strokes-gained approach he's inside the top 10 iron players in the field on this season's form. He likes Copperhead, where he says he can hit loads of drivers even if he has to 'chip' some, and it stands to reason that he'd enjoy a course where working the ball both ways is vital.
Last week offered further signs of encouragement as he partnered Scottie Scheffler to eighth in the Zurich Classic, at another course he likes, and Scheffler said on Friday: "Bubba hit it fantastic today. I can't really think of a shot that he didn't hit pretty much exactly the way he wanted to."
Again, that's a small sign that he isn't far away and I also like the fact we're in his home state of Florida. As career goals go, Watson will surely be especially keen to win here, something he's yet to do, and this is plainly the best course for him now Doral is off the schedule.
Anything 40/1 or bigger looks well worth taking and I'm excited about his prospects.
SAM BURNS was another who played nicely at TPC Louisiana (T4) and while that team golf exercise wouldn't be the most reliable form guide, he was also in decent nick at the Heritage, on a course far less suited to his game.
One of the standout maidens on the PGA Tour, Burns looked like he'd shed that tag when bursting five shots clear at Riviera back in February, eventually settling for third after a difficult, stop-start weekend during which weather delays probably didn't help his cause.
That form line looks significant and ties in well with his two appearances here, finishing 12th before he had a PGA Tour card and then 30th on his return, sitting fifth and 14th through 54 holes only to again struggle a little on Sunday.
It's a little concerning that he putted the lights out on both occasions but Burns is a very good putter, particularly on bermuda, and that strong ball-striking performance at Riviera encourages me to believe that he can work his way around this broadly similar course.
His approach play is much improved at 34th for the season, and having gone off shorter in the spring he's now out to a backable price at a course where he has more positive experience than anywhere else.
Casey won this event ranking 43rd in putting two years ago and in the hope that he can both produce and get away with something similar, KEEGAN BRADLEY is next.
A quality ball-striker who has long been at his most effective under difficult conditions, Copperhead looks a good course for Bradley, despite what his poor form figures suggest. That view is strengthened by his round one positions, which read 1-6-5-6 on his last four visits and show that he can score here.
Bradley returns in really good form having made his last seven cuts, including when sharing fourth in the Zurich Classic alongside partner Brendan Steele, and it was clear how much he enjoyed being in the hunt throughout Sunday's foursomes.
Buoyed by that and as another who will believe he can yet turn Steve Stricker's head, he should recognise that this is a good opportunity, especially as his approach play has been excellent this season. Bradley ranks sixth, which puts him fourth in this field, and is 10th on the PGA Tour from tee-to-green.
With some signs of life from the putter — he's gained strokes in three of his last four measured starts and made a few nice ones in Louisiana — Bradley might only need a little improvement off the tee, which has been a consistent strength since he emerged a decade ago.
At bigger prices, Sam Horsfield is tempting as he steps up in grade having played well in all four European Tour starts this year. Seriously progressive and based in Florida since childhood, Horsfield has been close to the top 10 in both appearances at Bay Hill in the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and is a far better player now.
He's respected along with Doug Ghim, another debutant in the event and one whose iron play has been really good for some time, but I'll side with experience at a course which often rewards it and make LUKE LIST my final selection.
Another who can struggle on the greens, List actually putted quite well in Louisiana where he missed the cut alongside veteran Bo Van Pelt, which isn't particularly surprising. Before that he'd struck it well only to putt badly at Harbour Town, but he has produced plenty of good weeks on the greens, including in Texas and on two of his three starts in Florida so far this year.
It's pure guesswork as to whether he'll happen upon a few putts here but the rest of his game is well suited to a course he's got to grips with, finishing 27th and 16th on his last two starts and being in the mix at some stage in each of these appearances.
Second off the tee and 22nd in approaches when last here, he's built a record similar to the one he owns at Riviera, where he has four top-30 finishes and plenty of good rounds. Copperhead looks a good fit and he came closest on another tough course in Florida when beaten by Thomas in a play-off, since when he's won a difficult Korn Ferry Tour event in the state.
James Hahn is another Riviera winner who has to make the shortlist but whose fitness has to be taken on trust while Cameron Champ is showing signs of life, but it's List who rates my pick of the outsiders in an event where a so-so putting week could be enough.
Posted at 1200 BST on 27/04/21
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