Martin Mathews is at Bay Hill, where the stage is set for a fascinating weekend in the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Recommended bets
1pt e.w. Sungjae Im at 8/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4)
Those who follow me on twitter or who read my own blog will know already that I am at Bay Hill this week, as I will be at The PLAYERS Championship and the Valspar over the next fortnight.
I have been lucky enough to witness a fascinating first two days at Bay Hill as gusting winds, thick rough and firm, fast greens have combined to make scoring conditions tough for all involved.
Two notable victims of the conditions on Friday were day one leader Matt Every, who followed his opening 65 with an 83 to become the first player since Camillo Villegas at the Honda Classic in 2013 to miss the cut after holding the lead at the end of Thursday, and Tommy Fleetwood, who shot 76-76 to miss the cut for the first time since the 2018 Open de France.
While the first two days have been tough for all it has been particularly challenging for those who found themselves playing on the wrong side of the draw - the PM/AM wave - as Thursday saw calm conditions for the early starters and much stronger winds later, while Friday if anything saw the winds peak for the day around mid-to-late morning.
With this leading to the course playing over a shot harder for one half of the draw, it is not surprising that we find two players, Tyrrell Hatton and Sung Kang, who played on the more favourable side, tied at the top on seven under. Danny Lee also got the better of it and is one shot back as three international players fill the first three places in a tournament the Americans are finding increasingly difficult to win.
Looking at the pair at the top, Hatton and Kang, what is most noticeable to me is that rather than relying on one particular component such as a hot putter, they are both so far doing everything very well. Hatton ranks inside the top 25 of all strokes-gained categories, and Kang is excelling in all departments bar around the green.
With both arriving here on the back of a recent high finish, and both also having played well here before, there is certainly an argument to say that one of them could see this through. On the flip side though history is not hugely in their favour as only one 36-hole leader, Jason Day in 2016, has won here since Tiger Woods dominated in 2012.
And although his tee-to-green stats say otherwise, Hatton was last night talking about having ‘lost his swing on the back nine’ and ‘not being sure how he got to seven-under’, not really what I would be wanting to hear if I was considering backing the volatile Englishman at this stage at 11/2.
With 12 players sat within four shots of the lead at halfway not unsurprisingly the layers have their eyes firmly focused on one who sits two back in a tie for fourth, the 2018 champion Rory McIlroy.
The Northern Irishman Is a warm order at 11/4, with Hatton as second favourite, however while I am sure the world number one will find a way to be in the hunt come Sunday, the fact that he has basically made his score in the best of the conditions on Thursday morning, before struggling on Friday afternoon, is enough to put me off backing him at this stage.
Instead my preference is to focus in on the four players in the top dozen who have fashioned their score playing on the wrong side of the draw: Harris English, SUNGJAE IM, Patrick Reed and Marc Leishman.
Looking at this quartet and with Reed and Leishman both having relied on their putter predominantly over the first two days and with English, winless in over five years, the sort you would rather have onside at the outset at juicier odds with a good each-way buffer, the one I am most drawn to is last weeks Honda Classic champion, Im.
Understandably when sizing up an event most people tend to draw a line through the previous week's winner when they are a player who has landed their first tour title, as you would expect them to suffer some kind of mental letdown.
With all due respect to the young Korean, however, he doesn’t strike me as the kind of character who will have gone overboard with the celebrations and as someone who is renowned for living and breathing golf, it was no doubt straight back down to business on Monday.
Im was third here last year on his debut in the event and currently leads the field for the week from tee to green, so with no sign of a let up in the wind over the weekend or any rain forecast to soften things up, a continuation of this long game will surely serve him in good stead. In addition of course let's not forget he captured his win last week in similar tough, blustery conditions.
Riding the crest of a wave, Im won't be flustered by playing with McIlroy on Saturday and I see no reason why he can’t keep his run going.
Posted at 0730 GMT on 07/03/20
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