Honda Classic round one preview: From west to east via Mexico

Recommended bets

1pt Nick Watney to win his three-ball at 2/1

1pt Luke List to win his three-ball at 6/4

If anything, calmer-than-usual weather on day one of the Honda Classic serves to complicate things rather than simplify them – particularly after rain arrived on Wednesday to further soften one of the hardest courses on the schedule.

Were we expecting a firm, breezy test, it would be easy to narrow the focus be it on the three-ball coupon or even the first-round leader market, those to have pinged the lids here previously virtually unanimous in their love for coastal golf.

Take Wesley Bryan, whose one PGA Tour win came in the RBC Heritage, or Alex Noren, or Sergio Garcia, or Texan Cody Gribble; these are players who share little in common, but for being more comfortable than most when the wind whips across a golf course.

In the absence of any notable wind, expect lower scoring than we’ve grown used to here and it could be that the Honda Classic form book is ripped up – although hand on heart I expect that, come the end of 72 holes, PGA National has demonstrated that its challenge is multi-faceted and does not depend totally on a gale.

Anyway, a reasonably cautious approach leads me first to Nick Watney, who looks a shade overpriced at 2/1 to beat Sung-jae Im and Ollie Schniederjans.

Im makes his tournament debut, his form having dipped a little when last seen, and while the switch to Bermuda greens will suit him this is a course where experience counts for plenty.

Watney knows it plenty well enough, making the cut in all four visits to register 16 rounds at a very solid average of 70.13 – not far off the very best in the field with just five players dipping below 70.

He’s got a very solid Florida record in general, including a win at Doral, and in fact you have to go all the way back to 2007 for the last time he missed a cut in the Sunshine State away from the high-class PLAYERS Championship.

There’s been enough to like about his play so far this season to suggest he can extend that record here and his round-one stats, such as they are, make him a faster starter than both Im and Schniederjans.

With the latter spiralling out of control after a strong start last week, his long-game a real concern right now, and Im having to learn on the job, I like the look of the most surprising hip hop fan in world golf at around the 2/1 mark and he’s considered, too, for the first-round lead at 100/1.

Watney has hit the frame in this market in every event he’s played in Florida, including on his debut in this one, and an early afternoon tee-time should prove advantageous.

Finally, it's worth backing Luke List to further enhance his excellent course record and account for Alex Noren and Patrick Rodgers.

Noren was very poor last week and the absence of wind here is a negative. He played beautifully in the event last year and it's not out of the question that he bounces back, particularly given that he practices at the Bear's Club in Florida, but he needs to find rapid improvement.

Rodgers has a fairly modest record here and in Florida as a whole, with just five cuts made in 14 attempts and both top-20 finishes having come in the Arnold Palmer Invitational. His effort at Riviera last time was encouraging but that's a course he really likes; there's little evidence to suggest there's any real affection for PGA National.

List, though, is one of those five players with three or more starts in the event who average under-par. Calm, soft conditions will absolutely suit one of the most powerful players on the circuit and after a slow start to the year, he struck the ball notably well last time out. He should be closer to the even-money mark.

From west to east... via Mexico

Whether you're a golfer missing cuts or a punter down on your luck, the move from west coast to east offers the opportunity to start again.

Tiger Woods, despite being born in California and completing his golfing education at Stanford, despite having produced arguably the performance of his career at Pebble Beach, has been itching to get back to his new home in Florida - and not because he's got another battle to fight on Fortnite.

"I'm done. I'm officially done," he told GOLFTV's Hennie Zuel after the final round in Mexico, more on which later. "I really can't explain how bad I putted. I'm officially excited to get off of poa."

Of course, Tiger isn't in the field this week - we'll have to wait for Bay Hill to discover just how much improvement he can find for putting on different surfaces - but there are others in the Honda Classic who are no less relieved to wave goodbye to the bumpy poa annua surfaces on which the first blows of the year are exchanged.

One such example is Russell Henley, who won the Honda Classic in 2014 after a four-way play-off which included Rory McIlroy, Russell Knox and Ryan Palmer. Georgia, Florida twice and Texas - these are players who were either born and raised or now live in the south east, where bermuda greens are the norm.

A year later, Henley was the first man in to speak with the media and, when asked about his out-of-the-blue victory, had only one explanation.

"I think it might have something to do with getting back to the bermudagrass," he said. "I feel like whenever I play Riviera, I'm uncomfortable. I've made the cut one time there of the three. I love the course. I love the atmosphere. I want to play well there, obviously, but I'm just not comfortable on that course yet.

"I think Michael (Thompson, 2013 Honda winner) played a lot of bermudagrass probably growing up. You know, maybe that's it. Those West Coast tournaments can be brutal. I feel like those greens are really hard to putt on, and they are not easy courses."

All of this means if you've had an eye on a player who perhaps hasn't been pulling up trees out west, check to see if there's hope of an upturn now we're back east. Henley could be one such example, as could Knox; Joey Garber stepped up massively having gone to Puerto Rico and their bermuda greens last week, where former Honda runner-up Daniel Berger also sprang to life.

There are myriad others. Billy Horschel always looks forward to touching down in Florida, Sam Saunders too; Ryan Blaum and Bud Cauley were born there, Emiliano Grillo and Cameron Smith now live there. Truth be told, Florida and its tax laws makes for an ideal place for PGA Tour players to live. Still, change presents opportunity and if there is to be a shock winner this week, I'd expect it to be a player who finds form for a return home.

Tiger and GOLFTV

I could write a (presumably quite poor) essay on this, but I'll try to be brief.

Back in November, it was announced that GOLFTV had entered a 'multi-year global content partnership' with Tiger Woods, in which the on-demand video streaming service and social media presence would offer a unique insight into Tiger's 'practice routines, preparation and life on the road' through a variety of programming.

It all sounds great, doesn't it? Why wouldn't we all benefit from what was promised here? Weekly practice and instructional videos - yes please. Exclusive access into Tiger's preparation routines - yes please. Behind-the-scenes access before and after PGA Tour rounds - again, yes please.

The issue is with the final bullet point on the list: 'unique and exclusive post-round commentary.'

Last week in Mexico, Woods did not speak with the assembled press after the final round, instead spending some time with Hennie Zuel, a perfectly cast new member of the GOLFTV team having cut her teeth on Sky Sports.

I like what she brings to coverage and it's nice to see her flourish having opted against the pursuit of excellence as a touring professional. It's heartening that a young woman, daughter of an English father and Mauritian mother, has thrived covering the men's game.

But Zuel's role is quite specific and requires a different set of skills to those needed on the golfing beat. Hers is not to ask searching questions of Woods and spin a yarn, more to build a relationship with him, make him feel at ease, encourage the man who for so long remained hidden in plain sight to speak up. So far she's done an excellent job.

Had Woods have taken what some might term a dodgy drop in Mexico, as Dustin Johnson did, or wilfully attempted to mislead an official like Rory McIlroy did, would Zuel have been the right person to ask for an explanation? Would she have challenged Tiger if his account didn't add up?

I have my doubts - not because of the person, but because of the role. As Alan Shipnuck noted, it would be a great shame, not just for him and his colleagues, if Woods’ situation becomes normal; if access to players appears to be wider but has in fact been narrowed.

Selections box

My selections: Simpson, Grillo, An, McDowell, Niemann

Steve Palmer: Woodland, Horschel, Berger, Schwartzel

Dave Tindall: Thompson, Glover, Schwartzel

Steve Rawlings: Knox, Kizzire, Kaymer, Trainer, Wagner, Stefani, Crane

Steve Bamford: Garcia, Berger, Aphibarnrat, Knox