Golf betting tips: Corales Puntacana Championship
3pts win Charley Hoffman at 18/1 (General)
1.5pts e.w. Luke List at 28/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Will Gordon at 45/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Tyler McCumber at 50/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Pat Perez at 70/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Luke Donald at 200/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
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It's six months since Hudson Swafford defied poor form and a massive starting price to win his second PGA Tour title at the Corales Puntacana Championship in the Dominican Republic and yet (don't say strange times, don't say strange times, don't say...) in these strange times, he's back already to defend his title.
While Shane Lowry enjoys his second full year in possession of the Claret Jug, Swafford's time as champion has been cruelly slashed and yet for those without the exemption he earned that week, this is a precious gift from the suits: a chance to earn some money, some FedEx Cup points, even some silverware, and to advertise their credentials as one of golf's 'strategic decision makers' in the Aon Risk-Reward Challenge.
Much to ponder and that's true of another fabulously varied field, much like the one we were treated to in Puerto Rico last month. Out go Branden Grace, Matt Wallace, Ian Poulter and Andrew Putnam; in come the likes of Charles Howell, Danny Willett, Nate Lashley, and tournament favourite CHARLEY HOFFMAN.
Siding with the market leaders in events such as these shouldn't be done flippantly, because there's a reason Hoffman is here, just as is the case for Thomas Pieters and Emiliano Grillo. Any recent winning form at this level and they simply would not be, and in Hoffman's case the winless run now stretches back almost exactly five years, to the Valero Texas Open.
With that event to come in a week, Hoffman is giving himself the maximum opportunity to qualify for the Masters, though he's going to have to win and possibly twice. Still, good play here will strengthen his chances of an 11th-hour bid in San Antonio, and he must have a huge chance.
Corales is a long par 72 with wide fairways, described often as a second-shot course. In truth, it's been more third and fourth in the three years this tournament has featured on the PGA Tour, with Brice Garnett, Graeme McDowell and Swafford all producing brilliant weeks on the greens.
That in itself makes me a little uneasy, but some of the names closest to them and the recent rain that has fallen here promises a subtle shift. With four par-fives to go at, upon which scoring has always been vital, it may well be that this becomes somewhat more of a ball-striking test — and that puts Hoffman as the standout candidate.
For a while now, the veteran has been showcasing the long-game which got him a Presidents Cup debut in 2017 and had seen him threaten in majors. Go back to the Northern Trust at a course he likes and he ranked second in strokes-gained approach, and at the start of the new year he hit the ball well enough to have a say in the Sony Open only to lose ground on the greens.
More recently, he's found a level of consistency which makes him especially appealing here, ranking ninth, fourth and third in strokes-gained approach across his last three starts, each of them in far stronger company. And his stats have translated to results: seventh at Pebble Beach, 10th in the Arnold Palmer, and 17th last time out at Sawgrass, his best finish in 14 appearances in The PLAYERS.
In amongst this he was 14th on his debut here last September, when his form was not as robust and his long-game numbers — albeit the old-style length, fairways, greens — were not good. Six months down the line he's in far better touch and I love the fact he's a winner at El Camaleon, where McDowell once triumphed in a play-off, where Garnett is really comfortable, and where last year's 54-hole leader Adam Long has twice had a chance to win.
At this level, Hoffman is a class act and while results such as Brian Gay in Bermuda and Swafford here remind us that shocks are commonplace in these opposite fields, wins for Grace and Viktor Hovland in Puerto Rico, not to mention McDowell here, demonstrate that a touch of class goes a heck of a long way.
Ultimately if you are going to play at short odds in these events, you should know the player in question can be relied upon come the crunch. Relative to the opposition here, we can say that of Hoffman, and he simply looks the most likely winner now that the putter appears to be warming up too.
One to add to the list...
Speaking of the putter warming up, that's been the case with LUKE LIST lately, at least it had been until a backwards step at PGA National which resulted in a third missed cut in four starts.
At least his long-game was back on track there, and if he can find a decent week with the putter then this looks an ideal place for his long-awaited breakthrough, having been eighth back in September when his form on arrival was plainly not as encouraging.
Throughout his career, this frustrating character has shown that he has to be taken very seriously when dropping in grade, and that's key to his chances here. Not only was he eighth on his Dominican debut, but he's played well on all three starts in Puerto Rico, finished 20th in his sole Barbasol appearance, contended when he last played in the Barracuda, and was runner-up when the Sanderson Farms was also an opposite event.
That plus seventh place at El Camaleon is ample evidence that he's a big player here and if the course does play softer and longer, with a little more rain in the forecast, then it will suit one of the best drivers in the field. List has a lot in his favour and should threaten the places at least.
Brandon Wu had every chance in Puerto Rico and has to be respected along with Justin Suh, and the latter was very close to making my staking plan. Suh is a top-class talent in the making who was a shot shy in last week's Honda Classic qualifier, having previously been just outside the top 30 in Puerto Rico, and at 50/1 he's well worth considering.
The problem I have is very similar to Puerto Rico: that 50/1 will go, soon becoming 33/1, and that would be short enough. For that reason he's left out despite the fact that he was 14th here on debut, has likely continued to improve since, and that his recent PGA Tour form stacks up nicely: 21-14-8-MC-37-35.
It's also worth noting that Suh needs 132 FedEx Cup points to secure special temporary membership, which roughly equates to a top-two finish here. After this he'll have two more sponsor invites to use in search of that number and it may well go down to the wire, as was the case with his friend Will Zalatoris in Bermuda last year.
Big-hitters with conditions to suit
Onwards we go and I'm very much basing four of my selections on a bit of punch from the tee, with WILL GORDON and TYLER MCCUMBER next.
Gordon is another youngster who earned his card thanks to sponsor invites, his huge finish at the Travelers last year enough to get the job done, and throughout 2021 he's been threatening to put four rounds together.
A slow start kept him out of things in Puerto Rico, whereas in some big-money events in California he stalled a little at the weekend, but those flashes of promise have been consistent even if he's not yet seen the job through. This was again the case at the Honda, a course I wouldn't have down as ideal, as he sat 16th at halfway and fell 20 places over the weekend.
Long off the tee and good with the putter, success may depend on whether he can find that quality approach work from the first two rounds of the Honda. After some more good golf in Monday's Seminole Pro-Member, in which Gordon and his partner took second, I'm more than hopeful he can do that and leave behind him a missed cut here on his first try.
Gordon has a much more solid bank of form now, having made six of his last seven cuts, and is similar in profile to several who've gone close here recently — McCumber in particular.
The latter looks a very obvious selection for this and I was a little surprised to see plenty of 50 and 55/1 around. He was runner-up to Swafford having arrived on eight missed cuts in nine starts, and on his only prior visit sat third through 54 holes before a chastening final round saw him slip to 19th.
That's really solid course form, all built around long driving and hitting plenty of greens (seventh and second), and his other efforts at this sort of level — 20th in Puerto Rico, 29th when in hopeless form at the Barracuda — mark him down as another danger man down in grade.
McCumber confirmed how much he enjoys this course after finishing second to Swafford, saying: "This was my first PGA Tour event two years ago in 2018 and I played pretty well in it then, so I definitely have good memories here as well.
"I was in the last group here, it was actually my first PGA Tour event and playing with Bryce Garnett when he won. I didn't really have a great Sunday, so I think I had a little bit of motivation going into today to just really try to make as many birdies as I could and sort of stay aggressive.
"I learned a lot from that final round, being in a good position and kind of not really capitalising on it, but learning a lot. I feel like I applied that today, which was good."
He returns having been 22nd in The PLAYERS and 33rd in the Honda, his iron play and putting both very good, and a mere continuation of that kind of form should see him go well for a third time here.
Camilo Villegas could build on last week's top 10 and land a popular win having shown a liking for paspalum greens in the past, as well as boasting an excellent record in the wind. He's respected along with course specialist Joel Dahmen, who has been a stroke outside the top 10 on all three visits here, at varying points in his career, and hit the ball to a very high standard at Sawgrass last time.
He's just one of those I've failed to get right and after plenty of back and forth I've decided to take a slightly bigger price about PAT PEREZ.
Another El Camaleon winner, Perez was really popular here back in September, going off half the odds we're able to take today. That's despite the fact it was his debut at the course, and I'm hoping he learned plenty from four solid rounds, especially as he played the tougher back-nine so well and signed off with a 68.
I suspect he saw enough to be excited by this return to the Dominican Republic and part of the reason he was fancied last time is that two of his PGA Tour wins have come on these paspalum greens. Granted, he appeared to be in better form back then, but he's been playing in stronger company lately and has made six of his 10 cuts dating back to Mexico last December.
Three of those he missed came by a single shot, the other at Sawgrass where he shot an opening 77 on that brutal Thursday but responded with a three-under 69 in round two. Four decent rounds at the Honda confirm he isn't far away and the fact he's only had one week off since the Sony suggests he's healthier and more motivated than he has been for a while now.
In many ways, Perez boasts qualities similar to the last three winners here and having also been 18th in the Barracuda, he's yet another who can turn mid-pack finishes into something far better now he's one of the classier players in the field.
Others of note include Satoshi Kodaira, a seaside PGA Tour winner who hit his irons really well at the Honda, and RSM Classic champion Tyler Duncan. Both are priced pretty generously while I looked at the Aussies following Matt Jones' win, but the money for Lucas Herbert now looks to have him at the right sort of price.
That was going to be that, but having sided with LUKE DONALD last week I want to give him one more try.
The case for Donald was of course based largely on a strong record in the Honda, and he ultimately missed the cut by two. But I can't stress enough, for those who didn't spend two days tracking his every move, how well he played for the most part. Indeed Donald was five-under for 34 of the 36 holes, but dropped eight shots on the other two.
Six of those came at the par-three 17th, a fearsome and brutal hole which can make anyone look silly. Given he's been missing cuts for a while, it isn't hugely surprising that one mistake led to another, and that his nine there bled into the next couple of holes and a double-bogey to add to his woes.
What impressed me most was the way he fought back. Donald played his final 26 holes in five-under, hitting quality approach shot upon quality approach shot and, in the second round, finding one or two putts. There were of course some errant drives but these fairways in the Dominican Republic are wide and he should feel far more comfortable off the tee, having always been a player who gets to work thereafter.
If he continues to hit his irons as well, Donald can definitely make the cut here. He's been close to doing so in every single start since he last managed it, in Bermuda, another opposite event and one in which he was sixth at halfway. This is a similar challenge and, with all of his best recent form accompanied by a breeze, it's one this long-time Florida specialist should take to.
Of course, if the course does play longer than usual that's against him, but there are underlying positives which mark him out as a far bigger threat here than his odds imply. They are based on those letters next to his name, but at the risk of being wrong again, not all missed cuts are equal. He's much closer than he looks.
Posted at 1300 GMT on 23/03/21
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