Golf betting tips: Hero Open preview and best bets
Ben Coley bagged more European Tour profits with a 150/1 shot in third on Sunday, and now casts his eye over the Hero Open at Fairmont St Andrews.
Golf betting tips: Hero Open
2pts e.w. JB Hansen at 55/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Benjamin Hebert at 60/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Brandon Stone at 60/1 (Betfred, William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Marcus Kinhult at 80/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Chris Wood at 150/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
The Scottish Championship may not have survived, that seemingly one-off event confined to a Wikipedia page where Adrian Otaegui's name will remain until the world ends, but Fairmont St Andrews is back to host its second European Tour event. Just south of the famous one, this course proved something of a cakewalk as Otaegui reached 23-under despite two rounds of 70, and unless the worst of the forecast rain arrives we might get something similar before settling in for evenings of relative struggle over in the USA.
Measuring 7,230 yards, Sam Torrance's design is in fact the approximate equal of Southwind, home of the WGC-FedEx St Jude Invitational, but plays to a par of 72 and as well as four shortish par-fives, the par-four seventh doesn't even require driver for many of the field to hit the green off the tee. It was and is easy, designed really for tourists, and looking back it makes perfect sense that it boiled down to a battle of precise iron play and deadly putting.
Links golf, or a form of it, always comes with those weather-related caveats and there's a small hint in the forecast that an early start on Thursday could prove beneficial. Still, it was cool and breezy at times last year and only on Saturday did nobody in the field manage a round of 64 or better, of which there were five in total during the week. That being said the cut itself was not extraordinarily low by any means, with one-under making it, and there are enough blue and black numbers on the European Tour leaderboard to confirm that there's trouble lurking for the extremely wayward.
Andy Sullivan is favourite for the second week in succession and this time is very tempting at what's left of the 16/1, almost twice what some were quoting seven days ago. One of if not the classiest player in the field, he's hardly had a bad day since the PGA Championship and should do better than in the ISPS Handa World Invitational, where he failed to capitalise on an eye-catching start.
Ryan Fox and Eddie Pepperell are the other two at the front of the market who have competed at a far higher level, both having been second in Rolex Series events, and Pepperell is the best iron player in the field on this season's form. Given that he's so often raised his game in the UK and Ireland, something we saw in patches last week, odds of 33/1 are perfectly fair for all it's hard to imagine him lighting up the greens in the way that may be required.
All things considered there's no need to deviate too much from last week's plan, that is to say that 'if in doubt, leave them out' is a necessary maxim at this level, not least when we're so close to the sea. Yet this time I do have a very strong fancy at the odds, with JB HANSEN considered hugely overpriced.
Hansen has been very much in-and-out this year but that's far from out of character, and all three of his top-10 finishes give us something to work with here in Scotland, from the ability in a breeze showcased in Qatar and the lights-out scoring of Gran Canaria, through to sixth place in Sweden, where Otaegui ought to have won, and Jonathan Caldwell did.
Caldwell was seventh here last year, tying things together nicely, and if there's one leaderboard to study closely it might just be that one from the Scandinavian Mixed. Hansen, who finished sixth despite arriving on the back of two missed cuts, is the one who stands out and though the journey here from the Olympics perhaps isn't ideal, I also like the way he played in Tokyo.
In amongst some of the best players in the sport, Hansen was in fact the best iron player in the field, shooting three rounds in the sixties and suffering one difficult day to finish mid-pack. It was a hugely eye-catching performance, not least because he does rely on quality approach play and did so when beating Wilco Nienaber on his turf to win the Joburg Open in November.
If Hansen can bring that with him to Scotland, where he's managed four top-five finishes in 15 starts, he might only need the putter to warm up to give him a huge chance for all that this is his course debut. And while his troublesome short-game is a concern, links golf can be a leveller by opening up options, including the putter, and if that's the case the rest of his game isn't far off the best in the field.
That volatility I mentioned means nobody can be confident in terms of predicting his performance, but price-wise he looks way off to me and anything starting with a five rates one of the best bets of the summer to date.
All names inside the top 20 or so in the aforementioned Scandinavian Mixed earned a second glance, not least Pep Angles and Scott Hend, both of whom could stack up birdie chances here and throw in the odd eagle for good measure. However, second of five in the staking plan is the rather more measured BENJAMIN HEBERT.
Simply put, Hebert is one of the best iron players in the field — indeed he ranks fourth among them for the season — and while others have their figures boosted by some questionable takings in Austria or else by the odd flashy performance, the Frenchman has somewhat typically been ultra consistent.
Each of his six starts prior to the Open yielded positive strokes-gained approach figures and nine of 12 going further back, while at Royal St George's he finished well for 33rd, which would've been at the upper end of even his expectations.
Yes, his form beforehand had been a little patchy, progress hindered by his short hitting, but there were a lot of steady, accurate types on the leaderboard here last year, most of them gaining strokes off the tee. Much like Galgorm Castle, this does look to be a course where a 280-yard drive which finds the fairway actually gets you somewhere, and that's significant when it comes to Hebert's chance.
He is in fact a very similar player to Otaegui, to whom he lost the final of the Belgian Knockout, and among various other close calls are second place in the Scottish Open and fourth in the Dunhill Links. Ultimately he requires something more about precision than power, such as when third at the Belfry last year, and while his putter isn't as reliable as the rest of his game it has come alive often enough to be worth the risk.
Typically when the weather is cool and there's wind and rain around, siding with home players or those from Scandinavia is far from the worst policy. Soren Kjeldsen, Mikko Ilonen, Soren Hansen, Patrick Sjoland, Alex Noren, Jeppe Huldahl, Robert Karlsson, Steen Tinning, Johan Edfors, Peter Hedblom, Pierre Fulke, Anders Hansen and Thomas Bjorn have all won in the UK and Ireland since the turn of the century and it works the other way, too, with Marc Warren, Jamie Donaldson, Paul Waring, Matt Fizpatrick and Caldwell among the home brigade to have triumphed in Sweden or Denmark.
The name missing from the first list is MARCUS KINHULT, who was at home by the coast in Southport when beating quality opposition in the British Masters, with Pepperell and Wallace among those close behind.
Although his career hasn't quite taken off since, he was a shot away from winning a Rolex Series title in South Africa in 2019, the most valuable event in European Tour history, and there were signs late last year that he wasn't far off once more. Significantly, all four top-20 finishes post-lockdown came from six such opportunities in the UK, versus a nought-from-seven return elsewhere.
As far as 2021 goes, things have been very different. Kinhult has played in eight events in total and hasn't finished inside the top 50 as yet. However, there is a reason he took April, May and most of June off, and it's that he collapsed in a hotel room in the spring and was subsequently diagnosed with a form of epilepsy. When it came, his return was surely designed with the Open in mind, as he played three times prior to missing the cut at Royal St George's.
Kinhult said there that he feels good, capable of playing, and that's just as encouraging as his performances have been. Yes, he's missed three cuts, including one in poor company back home, but two starts back he was 11th at halfway in the Scottish Open, and he opened up with a very good round of 69 in the Open before narrowly failing to make the weekend, which had also been the story in Ireland.
Having made all seven cuts in Scotland including sixth place at the Renaissance in October and a respectable effort at Carnoustie in 2018, and won the Lytham Trophy during an excellent amateur career, Kinhult has the game for this sort of test. He's also a fabulous putter, whose lack of punch off the tee shouldn't be much of a problem, and whose iron play has looked better on his last two starts than it did at the beginning of the year.
There are of course huge unknowns when it comes to his health but if there's a time to chance him, it's under these conditions. Providing he can manage whatever symptoms he's faced with, there's no reason the youngster — he only turned 25 at the end of July — can't in time prove himself a cut above this sort of level, and 80/1 now he's got some rounds under is belt is plenty big enough.
Sihwan Kim is tempting, because he was a couple of holes away from being right in the mix at Galgorm Castle when selected at 70/1 and is now out to 90s with some. Kim double-bogeyed both par-fives on Saturday, then on Sunday made eight birdies, nine pars... and a nine. Prolific when it comes to making birdies and with largely progressive form figures, don't be surprised if he is again on the fringes.
That said I'm drawn to the classier BRANDON STONE, who could do anything this week — but win the tournament is definitely a contender and at 60/1 he's a bet.
Stone has been in generally poor form, with six missed cuts in eight starts, and only shares of 40th and 75th outside of those. The worrying aspect to this downturn is that it largely stems from his approach work, as he's generally driven the ball well and his putting has been serviceable, too.
Given that last year's Scottish Championship was a game of irons, that's a big negative but it's outweighed by the fact he's capable of high-class form such as second place to Paul Casey in the Dubai Desert Classic, which came after a fairly hopeless missed cut in Abu Dhabi and was followed by another big effort in the breeze in Qatar.
Rewind further and Stone shot 60 in the final round of the Scottish Open to steal it from Pepperell and that was a massive surprise, largely because he'd missed four cuts in seven and finished outside the top 50 on the other three occasions, a run which is almost identical to that which he's on now. His runner-up finish by the sea in Oman was more predictable, but his European Tour form at the time read 21-MC-MC.
Hoping for lightning to strike twice isn't exactly a compelling case but the fact that Stone has regularly found form out of the blue says a lot about the player, besides which he wasn't disgraced on a rare PGA Tour invite last time and also bagged some valuable course experience when a good 16th here last year.
It's interesting that he kept big numbers off the card that week, leading the field with just three bogeys and nothing worse, and again this speaks to his love for this kind of golf. Since winning at Gullane, he's been 10th in the Dunhill Links played in these parts, before those two top-20 finishes in Scotland towards the end of a disjointed 2020 season.
Stone is preferred to compatriot Bryce Easton, who made my staking plan for the Scottish Championship and played really well to finish just outside the top 10. Part of the case was the fact this South African has Scottish roots, got married here at St Andrews in a kilt and now lives by the sea in England, and he spoke about how much this place means to him when making a brilliant start which he wasn't quite able to build on.
Back out to 200/1 in a place despite a top-10 finish two weeks ago, he'd have been more tempting had he done more on the Challenge Tour, and on balance I just about prefer the case for CHRIS WOOD.
Here we have a player who ranks inside the top 20 in this field for both approach play and putting, one of just a handful to do so. In fact that underplays Woods statistics: he's seventh in strokes-gained approach and fifth in strokes-gained putting of those who make up this field.
There's a caveat with the irons as his figures in Austria likely need downgrading, data having been collected by caddies that week, however there can be no doubt that his iron play has been consistently good and that he's being held back by some pretty horrific driving numbers, which also explain his long-term malaise.
Wood spoke eloquently to John Huggan about his struggles back in May, on his way to 11th place at the British Masters. "I’m proud of myself,” he said of his battle against form and fitness issues. "I’m not sure how many in my position would have kept going. I’ve had to dig deep... but it’s in me. I’m not a quitter. I just can’t walk away. I don’t want to be looking back in 20 years time wishing I had gutted it out."
Wood also said that he was 'pretty close now' and though his results since have failed to back that up, his approaches and putting have been strong and he did fire a final-round 65 to finish 32nd at Celtic Manor last time.
Clearly, he's going to need more but this former BMW PGA Championship winner is a fine links golfer who is the forgotten man of the 2009 Open, where he finished third, and who was fifth as an amateur at Carnoustie. His first professional win came in Qatar, at a course which favours those who are good in the breeze, and if Wales gave him the required injection of confidence he could well build on it.
As with a couple of mine there's plenty of if and but here. A coastal, European Tour event on a course we're still learning about demands as much.
Posted at 1930 BST on 02/08/21
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