Greenbrier Classic golf betting preview and tips
David John has three selections for this week's Greenbrier Classic in West Virginia.
Recommended bets:
1pt e.w. Bubba Watson at 40/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt e.w. Johnson Wagner at 100/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
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The Greenbrier Classic in West Virginia was cancelled 12 months ago after a series of torrential summer storms left Old White TPC in ruins.
I have seen pictures of the devastation with the course under water but the restoration is complete with every green complex rebuilt, new bunkering and a selective thinning out of the trees.
The venue has only just re-opened but is in tip-top shape ahead of what I am sure will be an emotional week for a community that saw 1,000 homes destroyed and almost two dozen lives lost across the state in what was described as a ‘one-in-a-thousand year’ weather event.
Among those with local connections is Bubba Watson, who has a house in White Sulphur Springs and spends four or five months of the year in residence.
He and his family helped to assist in the clean-up operation along with making a hefty donation to the relief fund and the emotionally-charged left-hander has the potential to be a serious contender on ‘home soil’.
“I feel like a West Virginian,” he said.
“I love it here and think it is one of the best places in the world.”
It sounds very much like he will have some additional motivation then but the state of his golf game remains delightfully unpredictable.
He has missed three cuts from his last five starts but has finished inside the top six on the other two occasions so there is more than a little mystery in terms of which Watson will show up.
He has also admitted he is still “learning the golf course” but three attempts have seen steady improvement (30-16-13) although the education process will continue further after the aforementioned re-design.
Watson can lack focus – it can definitely stray into disinterest at times – but this event holds a huge amount of personal significance and some sort of challenge over the weekend from him would mean a great deal.
Whether his erratic golf game will hold up though is the big question but he is a fairly tempting price at 40/1.
Phil Mickelson also has a summer retreat here as he begins the next chapter of his career following a split with caddie Jim ‘Bones’ Mackay.
The news has been greeted with a fair amount of surprise but reading between the lines, perhaps the time for a change was right considering it is almost four years since Mickelson’s last victory and another good chance went begging recently in Memphis.
Phil’s bid to re-energise his game sees his brother Tim take over on the bag for the rest of the season as the spotlight will be on every interaction, every nuance, and every shot for one of the most scrutinised golfers on the planet.
Mickelson has not played the event since 2013 and failed to make the cut in all three goes but needs to get going again somewhere following a short break and we know he likes to play himself into form with competitive rounds as the Open Championship gets closer.
He starts as 22/1 chance but I would rather break the mould for once and take some 16/1 about market leader Patrick Reed.
Rather like Watson, Reed’s game can swing from one end of the spectrum to the other with some brilliant attacking golf at the US Open immediately followed by error-strewn clumsiness.
A bad third round hindered his chances at the following Travelers Championship while 67-72-72-67 was only good enough for a T18 at the Quicken Loans National as the good work was littered once again with too many mistakes.
For all the frustration, Reed is trending in the right direction after a stuttering start to 2017 as gets used to new equipment.
Results since the end of April have improved dramatically and I don’t think we are too far away from him getting into serious contention on a Sunday, rather than the recent state of affairs which has seen Reed post a good closing 18 holes but have too much ground to make up.
He missed the cut on debut here in 2013 and admitted he became a bit distracted by all the additional off-course activities like white-water rafting but two top 30s and seven out of eight rounds since in the 60s make encouraging reading for a player who is much better now than in 2015.
Johnson Wagner went to college at Virginia Tech 80 miles away in Blacksburg and tends to show up well here having played all six renewals.
“I can take it low around this track,” he said with rounds of 62 and 64 three years ago on the way to a T2 behind Jonas Blixt.
“I love the way it sets up, the angles off the tee and I really enjoy the strategic element of this course.”
Wagner arrives on the back of his best finish of the year following a T5 at the Quicken Loans while a previous opening 64 at the Travelers – which he could not sustain – hinted at better to come.
He was hanging on to the swing a bit towards the end of that 64 by his own admission and but has progressed since and what makes him of more interest is July always seems to be a productive month.
“This is a stretch of tournaments I traditionally play well in,” he stated with the John Deere Classic and Barbasol Championship (presuming he does not get in the Open) coming up where Wagner seems to thrive in the hot and steamy conditions at this time of year in Illinois and Alabama.
It is rather stating the obvious but a good four days on the greens can make all the difference as his Strokes Gained: Putting stats have been smarter lately which makes the selection well worth putting on the shortlist here and perhaps over the next few weeks as well.
Posted at 1505 BST on 04/07/17.
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