Ben Coley was five-from-five with three-ball selections over the first two rounds of the US Open. Get his take on Saturday's action.
Golf betting tips: US Open third round
2pt double Harman & Scheffler to win their two-balls at 19/10 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt treble Murray, Harman & Scheffler to win their two-balls at 5.43/1 (Betway)
Strange things can happen in major championships, and it's just one month since we were one par away from the world number one hundred getting the better of some of the world's best players. And yet, at the halfway stage of the US Open, the overwhelming likelihood appears to be this: either Collin Morikawa, Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy or Scottie Scheffler will win the third men's major of the season.
The uber-talented Aaron Wise might have other ideas and so will Sam Burns and Matt Fitzpatrick, while there's a fairy tale of sorts very much possible if co-leader Joel Dahmen were to triumph. Whether it's one of those Jedi mind tricks I keep reading about or the sincere view of an honest man, Dahmen has said before that he simply cannot win a tournament like this against players like these and almost didn't bother with qualifying. So far he's doing a good job of proving himself wrong on the first point, and right to have turned up for the latter.
But it's about 1/2 that the winner is among those four elite names mentioned, a group which covers three of the last four major winners plus McIlroy. Morikawa, ranked seventh in the world, lets the side down somehow: the others are first, second and third. The Country Club has so far provided an ideal test upon which the very best players in this sport have excelled.
There was some criticism of the USGA on Friday, as their decision to throw a little water on the greens seems hard to justify. Yes, it was with the intention of maintaining their speed from the morning, but it's fairly standard for golfers in the afternoon wave to have to combat changing conditions, and the greens didn't appear to need it. The organisation's micro-management of scoring is a habit which is hard to shift, and in this case it provided us with a small but not insignificant draw bias.
Scheffler had to battle against it and having been two-over early in his round, to finish three-under was an extraordinary effort. He'd been among those undone by the draw in the PGA Championship and it got the better of him, but this extremely quick learner put that right as a chip-in eagle at the 14th ignited his bid. Had conditions been fairer, if fairer is the right word in a sport like this one, then he might have been the man they all have to beat.
Instead the market can't split the other three but I'd make Rahm favourite based on what I've seen. He's driven the ball superbly for the most part, the brief issues he suffered with his approaches on Thursday appear to have been ironed out and, something that can never be covered in the stats, he has brushed the hole with a number of putts from range. Throw in a series of Torrey-style par saves during the middle of round two and he is narrowly preferred.
I'd be less confident about Morikawa, who has putted very well but then wobbled on a short one for eagle which would've earned him the outright lead. In the words of Brad Faxon he's 'wiped' a few drives and got away with them at times, and while virtually flawless from this sort of start in majors, there have been hints that his game isn't exactly where he'd like it. Clearly, though, he could win regardless.
For those yet to invest, my advice would be to consider Rahm and Scheffler most strongly, but with two of the three co-favourites onside from the start, now is not the time to go back in on the outright market. Nor do I feel inclined to back Sebastian Soderberg at 13/8 to be the top Scandinavian, thus ensuring a profit on that market with only he and David Lingmerth still standing. For now, let's let it all ride.
Best two-ball bets for round three
It's been a good two days across the board with all five three-ball suggestions winning, but a note of caution is advised regarding two-balls. For starters we now have no dead-heat safety net (if two players tie in a two-ball, the vast majority of bookmakers pay out on the tie instead), and we are also assessing players who've played very similarly for 36 holes. Separating them over the next 18 isn't always easy.
One way into the coupon is to look for those who played on opposing sides of the draw, which means one of the two will have had better scoring conditions to the tune of around 1.5 strokes. Nick Hardy (v Beau Hossler), Cameron Tringale (v Mackenzie Hughes) and Thomas Pieters (v Will Zalatoris) can all effectively be marked up, but Tringale has relied on his short-game, and taking on Zalatoris is similarly unappealing.
The fourth player who has overcome the handicap to match his partner's score is in fact SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER and though he's a short price, that's merited against Matthew NeSmith, a nervy sort who was close to tears when contending in the Valspar Championship earlier in the season.
NeSmith battled hard and this country-club ball-striker has a good game for a US Open like this one, where power isn't everything, but he's got a job on his hands here. Scheffler's form is hugely superior and with that handicap perhaps hiding the fact he's played the better golf this week, I'm happy to include him in multiples.
My strongest fancy at the prices is BRIAN HARMAN, who can put his experience and nous to use and get the better of Patrick Rodgers.
These two played from the same AM-PM draw and they've been remarkably similar in terms of scoring make-up so far, which is to say each has been strong through the bag to set themselves up inside the top 10.
But for all Rodgers' talent, there have to be serious concerns that he'll back-pedal today. That's what he did in the third round of last year's US Open (77), and it's what he did on his previous appearance in 2018 (83). Twice, he's entered the weekend of his national championship with an each-way chance, and both times he's played poorly.
That's consistent with the bigger picture. Rodgers fell from eighth to 35th during round three of the Canadian Open, and first to 24th in Boise last August when dropping down to Korn Ferry Tour finals. Last May, a halfway lead in the Wells Fargo ended in 54th place with a round to go.
All told, Rodgers has been inside the top 10 at this stage of a tournament eight times since the start of 2022, and on each occasion he dropped down the leaderboard. Over the course of his career he's been in this sort of situation 28 times, and only twice has he edged closer to the lead. It's a pretty damning return, however eye-catching his performances have been of late, however much potential he still retains.
Harman, who stuck around for second place when leading the 2017 US Open at this stage, has a far superior record. Ten times he's got closer, that's from 41 tries, so one in four versus one in 14. What's more, this includes when he went from co-leading to the solo lead in that US Open five years ago, while he also has experience of teeing off late in the Masters and the PLAYERS Championship.
Given that he's also the better player on PGA Tour form, the left-hander looks really solid at 10/11. He did well to fight back from a messy double-bogey midway through the back nine on Friday, and should stick around in a way we've become accustomed to.
I did consider putting up 273-277 inclusive in bet365's winning score market, which is three-under to seven-under in simpler terms. At odds-against (eight-under or better is odds-on) I think it underestimates the likelihood of a tougher weekend, and the simple fact that there are only seven players who would reach eight-under by repeating their scores of the first two rounds anyway.
To my mind, six-under seems a really good target from here, but there are two reasons for leaving out the selection: one is that I prefer not to advise bets in markets available with only one bookmaker for obvious reasons, but the other is the USGA. Ultimately, they have a large amount of control over what the score is, and I can't quite trust them to let the course dry out and show its teeth.
Instead then I'll sign off with GRAYSON MURRAY to beat Guido Migliozzi, which helps make for a 5/1 treble. The justification for this one is very simple: there's a vast chasm between the way these two have struck their balls over the first two rounds, with Murray's ball-striking superior by around five and a half strokes.
He's been playing much better of late whereas Migliozzi's long-game has been in disarray for many months. If that continues for another 18 holes, it seems likely to me that the Italian finds himself dropping down the leaderboard.
Posted at 0850 BST on 18/06/22
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