Golf betting tips: US PGA Championship third-round three-balls and match bets
After 15/2, 23/10 and 13/8 winners on Friday, Ben Coley looks ahead to the third round of the PGA Championship at Oak Hill.
Golf betting tips: PGA Championship three-balls
2.5pts KH Lee to beat Harold Varner at 21/20 (General)
1pt double Davis and Pendrith at 17/4 (BoyleSports)
1pt treble Rodgers, Hoge and Herbert at 4.67/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
0.5pt treble, Lee, Davis and Pendrith at 9/1 (General)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Friday at the PGA Championship was better than Thursday when it comes to trying to salvage a profitable week from a nightmare start – even though things could have been better still. In fairness, it would've had to go some to be worse.
Headline selection Patrick Cantlay played beautifully to reach level from four-over, then missed a four-footer at his final hole before late starters enjoyed better conditions. Just before that, Cam Davis had dropped three shots over his closing four holes, which specials tip Dean Burmester would later do.
Like Davis, Shane Lowry reached two-under, three off the lead, but the Irishman bogeyed his final two holes. On the other side of the course, his friend, top seniors pick Padraig Harrington, double-bogeyed the seventh hole. He has a two-stroke lead over Phil Mickelson, the only other veteran to have made the weekend.
Overall then it's not a bad position all of a sudden. Burmester is tied with the only other South African, Harrington is odds-on, and Bryson DeChambeau remains narrowly the pick of the LIV Golf players. With three each way selections inside the top 20, only one thing appears out of reach. It's a shame that's the main thing: to find the winner.
Lowry, five back, isn't discounted totally and nor can Cantlay be, but Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland and Corey Conners all share the lead, DeChambeau and Brooks Koepka are close behind, and Rory McIlroy is alongside Lowry. It seems to me that we've probably got six potential winners and they populate the front of the market.
Of the six, Hovland would earn narrow preference over Scheffler at the prices. There seems to have developed a strange version of reality in which this 25-year-old with seven professional wins to his name has got a massive question mark next to his name as one who can't or doesn't win. Note that Scheffler has twice finished second to him and that it was McIlroy's pocket Hovland picked in Dubai.
We often find that new major winners had recently experienced contending for them and Hovland has done so in the latest two, first alongside McIlroy in the final group at the Open and then when third through 54 holes at Augusta. It's true that he's struggled on both occasions, but this quick learner who leads the field from tee-to-green may produce an altogether different display this time.
As far as today's three-balls go, what a draw we have. Hatton/Mickelson, Smith/Rahm, Matsuyama/Homa, Reed/Fleetwood, Morikawa/Scott, McIlroy/Lowry, DeChambeau/Koepka... it's so strong it almost makes you want to check whether they all were actually meant to be paired.
There are others, too, like friends together via Straka/Mitchell and former amateur opponents Hovland/Suh. The tournament has been bubbling away but things should get really interesting on Saturday evening.
Away from those high-profile groups which are largely hard to call, I'm keen to oppose Dustin Johnson again.
His long-game was poor in round one and abysmal in round two, whereas he ranks fourth in putting and has also been good around the green.
CAM DAVIS, bar that costly finish, has been solid from tee-to-green, ranking 60 places above Johnson over the first 36 holes, and at 7/4 I don't mind chancing him to get the better of a player who clearly does have the scope to improve – but will need to.
Davis has made the cut in every major appearance and has the game for this course. He's most comfortable on these greens, too, so perhaps we'll see a bit of improvement there to keep him in the mix for places at a big price.
Callum Tarren has been one of the week's surprise packages and on the face of it he's the one to be on against TAYLOR PENDRITH, who ranks second in strokes-gained putting.
However, Tarren shot 78 from a similarly promising position at last year's US Open and his form has been dire all year. With his PGA Tour status under real threat, this is a massive day and there's got to be a good chance he struggles.
In that scenario, his suite of solid statistics from the first two rounds won't count for anything and Pendrith, who played the Presidents Cup last year and was 23rd in the US Open at Winged Foot under very similar conditions, can demonstrate the worth of an extra layer of comfort.
Again, Tarren enjoyed the better draw with the top seven players on the leaderboard all having teed off late in round two. Teeing off late in round three is a different matter altogether and I'm afraid I can see him going backwards.
Finally, somewhere between those early and later groups we find Harold Varner and KH LEE and the latter rates the bet at odds-against.
Varner finished 3-3-3-3-3 to go from the cut line to 19th but had been five-over for the round to that point and his long-game has been poor.
That's the department he's built his career on so to rank 117th in approaches on Thursday and then lower still at 144th on Friday explains why he's found himself in real trouble only to be rescued by his short-game, which has seldom been the case in the past.
Lee, by contrast, has gained strokes through the bag, this rock-solid all-rounder showcasing all parts of his game and building on a strong run of form over the past month or so. It seems this is very much his time of year.
Statistically then it's Lee's profile I much prefer, but the kicker is this: he's also a better player than Varner. Take anything bigger than evens.
Afternoon selections
Among the earlier starters, PATRICK RODGERS (v Kazuki Higa), TOM HOGE (v Thriston Lawrence) and LUCAS HERBERT (v Chez Reavie) makes for a 4/1 treble.
Rodgers was far from his best in round two but ranks eighth in strokes-gained off-the-tee so far, which is a fantastic platform especially with the course having received a bit of rain now.
With some of the fire removed from the fairways, Rodgers' superior power is a big advantage here and so is his experience. He actually has a sneaky-good record in majors having made the cut in all four US Open starts and this has been a US Open-style test to enhance it further.
Short-hitting Higa made a blistering start but has clung on since through his short-game. I'm happy going against that sort of profile as things get serious, and don't forget Rodgers had the tougher side of the draw over the first 36 holes.
Hoge in truth got by on his short-game yesterday but he's a better player than Lawrence, one who arrived in significantly better form. The South African has struggled lately and needed two big par saves over the final three holes to reach the weekend.
We saw Hoge come charging through the field at Sawgrass in March and while I wouldn't necessarily expect that here, he's a neat, tidy, reliable yardstick who ought not to make too many mistakes.
Herbert is a very different player but he holds a power edge over Reavie, who putted the lights out to make the cut. Herbert is vastly superior in that department and can show it today, with his added punch off the tee also in his favour. The fact that everyone misses fairways here doesn't hurt this wild driver, either.
Posted at 0815 BST on 20/05/23
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