Golf betting tips: Preview and best bets for the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba
Justin Thomas and Viktor Hovland head the betting for the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba, but Ben Coley is keen to roll the dice.
Golf betting tips: World Wide Technology Championship
1pt e.w. Harold Varner III at 75/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Adam Hadwin at 100/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Chris Kirk at 125/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Tyler Duncan at 250/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Camilo Villegas at 250/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Hudson Swafford at 250/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
Viktor Hovland marked himself down as the Prince of (Seashore) Paspalum with victory at last year's Mayakoba Golf Classic, since renamed the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba, as he holed a clutch putt at the final hole to beat Aaron Wise in a renewal which bucked the trends.
Hovland, who had captured his first PGA Tour title pre-pandemic in Puerto Rico, was 23 at the time, just the third 20-something winner of an event in its 14th year — there have been three 40-something winners since Fred Funk won the inaugural edition aged 50. Hovland was also seven strokes behind at halfway, a gap which had never previously been overcome. Every so often a rule-breaker appears or, in this case, a class full of the rascals.
El Camaleon is a short par 70 situated not far south of Cancun at Playa del Carmen. Mangrove forests guard fairways made artificially wider by typically soft, tropical conditions which extend through those Seashore Paspalum greens, themselves slow and receptive. Unless the wind blows, those who avoid costly mistakes off the tee can go to work with their shorter clubs and threaten to break 60.
Courses like this one, a comment which extends 12 hours west to Waialae, home of the Sony Open, plus to those which host the RBC Heritage, RSM Classic and Bermuda Championship, often lend themselves to experience, to accuracy, to the skills some will tell you are getting lost in a sport which saw the powerful Lucas Herbert defy similar trends last week.
I'm not sure wins for Hovland and Herbert tell us anything we didn't already know. The point isn't that players of their ilk shouldn't be winning these tournaments, it's that their elders and those whose games are less explosive have less of a gap to cover than they might elsewhere. That remains true. Tony Finau versus Brian Gay is a contest here, and it's that which should be at the forefront of calculations.
Favouritism goes to Justin Thomas over Hovland, and 14/1 in an end-of-year event featuring no other members of the word's top 10 is perfectly fair. Thomas shot 62 in the third round last December, finishing 12th, and was 23rd on his previous visit in 2014. His two wins at the CIMB Classic tie in nicely, as does that time he shot 59 and they never saw him in the Sony Open, and if he putts well he'll go well. What else is there to say?
Antipathy towards the favourites is nevertheless my overriding feeling here, not least because the 25/1 about Abraham Ancer has long since disappeared. He'd have been the headline selection, returning as he does a PGA Tour winner whose form is strong and sustained; who would like this course were it anywhere in the world, but has also proven capable of raising his game in front of Mexican crowds. His chance is no less obvious than that of Thomas.
But I'm not really in an obvious mood and will therefore begin a six-pronged attack on the places with HAROLD VARNER, who gets the headline vote because he's just about the most likely of these to hit the frame.
Varner has done that twice before at El Camaleon, finishing fifth on debut and sixth in 2018. On the first occasion he was an out of form PGA Tour rookie who had just about scraped together enough points for a card; on the second he was in good nick, but nevertheless ranked 164th in the world.
Last year he'd missed the cut in the RSM Classic and in 2018 he'd been off three weeks since playing in Japan, both times still ranked outside the top 100. Now, he returns to Mexico at 79th in the world, close to his career-high 73rd, and having been playing really good golf for quite a while — even if form figures of 11-12-16-11-32 in some way illustrate the Varner experience.
There's no doubt this is a suitable test for a fairways-and-greens golfer, who has won a co-sanctioned European Tour event at this time of year, but never at this level. The closest he's come was second place at the RBC Heritage, which offers strong correlation via the likes of Graeme McDowell, Russell Knox and Matt Kuchar, while placed money picked up at the Greenbrier, Wyndham and PLAYERS also speaks to his fondness for a technical test.
I wouldn't be at all concerned by what might look like a slightly backward step at the CJ Cup last time, because Varner had become a father just days earlier. Besides, a low-scoring, desert shootout just isn't his bag, and he'd have been back inside the top 20 and perhaps the top 10 with average putting, rather than ranking 71st of 77.
That putter is so difficult to predict and I'll confess to having fallen for his long-game before, but there are so few compelling candidates further up the betting here. Varner has plenty in his favour and if he does get a new dad bump, then perhaps a popular breakthrough will arrive on Sunday night.
Standing dish Joel Dahmen was first onto the list but he's been found in the market and I'll side instead with ADAM HADWIN.
The Canadian doesn't have quite as robust a form book as Dahmen, who enhanced his profile with victory in the Dominican Republic back in the spring, but two finishes of 10th from his last three visits confirms he likes it down here in Mexico.
Hadwin is a short, generally straight hitter, very much in the Mayakoba mould, and as a member of the PGA Tour's 59 club is certainly best under low-scoring conditions. His sole victory came on a tree-lined course in Florida where power doesn't necessarily do the trick, and last year's missed cut here was his third in succession as his form dipped wherever he played.
Recently, things have been looking up for the 2019 Presidents Cup team member and there was a lot to like about sixth place in the Shriners, where he ranked ninth in strokes-gained approach. From there he went to Bermuda and was blown away by a bad tee-time on Thursday, under conditions which don't really suit. The forecast is much calmer this week and he'll be far more at ease.
The fact Hadwin shot 66-68 through the middle rounds at Port Royal confirms his game to be in good shape and while strokes-gained data would be far more illuminating, he ranked first in greens hit. That suggests his iron play remains strong and any downturn with the putter is likely to be temporary given that it's the strongest club in his bag.
If he can hit more than his share of fairways, it's easy to see the rest falling into place for one who led the field in accuracy in 2016 and was always in the mix two years later. Anything around the 80/1 mark and bigger looks well worth taking.
Kirk can prosper back in Mexico
Back up the betting and Chilean duo Mito Pereira and Joaquin Niemann both made some kind of appeal, particularly the former, while it'll be interesting to see if either Rickie Fowler or Gary Woodland can press on following recent signs of encouragement. Both could've won here in the past and Fowler in particular deserves a second look, for all there was something of an anomalous undercurrent to his CJ Cup effort.
Ultimately none of these names quite did enough to convince me whereas I'm quite sweet on CHRIS KIRK, probably the standout selection at the prices.
Kirk has made all four cuts here and showed an immediate liking for El Camaleon when leading after round one on debut. Though yet to match that seven-under 63 in 15 subsequent rounds, he's done plenty to suggest that he can better seventh place back in 2016.
As well as a logical liking for a course which doesn't stretch his powderpuff driving, Kirk has an emotional attachment to the event as it was here that he made his comeback following time away to battle alcoholism. That was two years ago and, to his immense credit, Kirk has since reignited his career.
Second at the Sony Open was the pick of last season's efforts and that's not the first time he's gone close there, with his form in the RSM Classic, at Southwind, at Harbour Town and even in Malaysia correlating well with the Mayakoba. He's plainly comfortable by the coast and, when his putter is firing, loves a shootout.
It would be fair to say his performances lately have been unspectacular, but 14th in the CJ Cup two starts ago came in far stronger company and on a bigger course. Before that he'd made a solid start to the new season in Mississippi and the only real blot on the copybook of late was his final-round 74 in Japan, where he'd spent the week inside the top 25 only to tumble to 48th.
There really has been very little wrong with his play all year but this is one of a small collection of courses upon which he's particularly dangerous. It wouldn't be at all surprising if he emulated lookalike Brendon Todd and put on a fairways, greens and putting clinic.
One more mention from further up goes to Maverick McNealy, now established as one of the strongest maidens on the circuit and, for all his power, seemingly best on shorter courses. He's got a nice record here and played El Camaleon as an amateur in the 2016 Eisenhower Trophy, where Hovland also picked up some handy experience.
McNealy looks a fair price and that 50/1 range will be popular this week, but I'll keep picking away at some genuine outsiders with TYLER DUNCAN next.
Like Kirk, Duncan has made all four cuts here, his best a five-under 65, and his success has been built on his trademark accuracy. So reliable is he off the tee that Duncan gains strokes consistently despite an absence of power, and that's a nice platform at the right sort of course.
Duncan ended last season contending for the Wyndham Championship, where he shot a second-round 62 only to suffer a nightmare Sunday. After a month away he returned with a rusty 74 at the Fortinet Championship, but since then has carded rounds of 68, 68, 68, 69 and 66, generally looking like he's playing his best golf for some time.
It's two years since he upset favourite backers the world over with a shock play-off victory over Webb Simpson at the RSM Classic, itself a handy form pointer, and T3 at the Corales Puntacana on greens similar to these is another guide to his chances at a course we know is suitable.
Duncan will need to dial in his approaches but he has that in the locker, ranking above-average in 2020, 2021 and now in the early stages of the 2022 season. All things considered he looks in a good place to give us a nice run at massive odds.
Bermuda clues point to 250/1 shot
When Todd won here he was making it a swift double having dominated the Bermuda Championship, and for all the weather should be much better, those who played at Port Royal have gone through quite a nice little preparation. The courses look and feel different, but the grass is the same, the wind is always a threat, and chances for the bigger hitters to flex their muscles are few and far between.
Last week's event was subject to an enormous draw bias, those out early on Thursday at an immediate disadvantage which for a while Taylor Pendrith looked set to overcome. It therefore makes sense to upgrade such performances and I think that of CAMILO VILLEGAS has gone a little unnoticed.
Villegas started off with a six-over 77 but by Friday night was level par again thanks to a six-under 65, which he supplemented with weekend rounds of 69 and 68 to finish 34th. It was a mighty effort in the circumstances and came on the back of 35th place in the Shriners, where his iron play was sharp.
Now he comes to Mexico, where he once talked at length about how comfortable the Latino players are and how welcome they're made to feel. It's shown to some degree in his results, the Colombian having made five cuts in six, often been on the fringes of contention, and been second after the opening round in 2016.
We know thanks to victories in the Honda Classic and Wyndham Championship that these are the courses where he's most effective, and his best recent efforts have come in both the former event and the RSM Classic. Also a winner at East Lake, Villegas wants an old-school, ball-striking test, and we can only hope the odd wide off the tee comes at the right time and isn't too harshly punished.
With his 40th birthday on the horizon and having won the Mexican Open as a 20-year-old, there are a few sneaky pointers towards the chances of someone who shot 11-under for their final 54 holes in Bermuda, not far off the field-best 15-under from Scott Stallings. Villegas has a big week in him.
Snaffle some value with Swafford
J.T. Poston is playing better than a run of missed cuts suggests and has several low rounds to his name here, as well as an impressive win in the low-scoring Wyndham Championship. Only his putter let him down last time, without question his strength, and if he can get everything married up then quotes of 200/1 might appear generous.
However I'll finish with HUDSON SWAFFORD, who continues to be underestimated despite plenty of good stuff from summer onward.
Swafford finished second in the Palmetto Championship on the eve of the US Open and found form again in time for the FedEx Cup Playoffs where, in world-class events won by Tony Finau and Patrick Cantlay, he finished 11th and 17th. On the latter occasion he was right in the mix for most of the week and threatened to steal a late invite to the TOUR Championship.
That's form which is well ahead of almost everyone at similar odds and a good few at far shorter, and we're talking about a two-time PGA Tour winner whose three professional victories — those two plus the Stadion Classic — all tie in nicely. Todd won the Stadion and this, McDowell has won the Corales Puntacana where Brice Garnett and Dahmen have helped advertise links to the Mayakoba, while Adam Long, Si-Woo Kim, Gay, Mark Wilson, Pat Perez and Charley Hoffman confirm that the Bob Hope Classic is worth a check, too.
Swafford's form to start the season doesn't leap off the page but he's improved with each start, going MC-MC-56-32, and he was fourth after round one in world-class company last time we saw him. That was at the CJ Cup where, just as he had been in the Wyndham (12th), Northern Trust (17th) and BMW Championship (sixth), he was still in the mix at halfway.
With his missed cut in the Sanderson Farms on the number, the message from me is that this talented player is in good form, and as a Sony Open specialist who has won on Seashore Paspalum, that puts him on the radar. The fact he's made five cuts in succession here and led after round one in 2014 adds to the case for another live outsider in an event where getting stuck into those at short odds makes little appeal.
Posted at 1020 GMT on 01/11/21
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