Golf betting tips: Preview and best bets for the TOUR Championship
Ben Coley focuses on the lowest 72-hole score in his preview of the TOUR Championship, where Scottie Scheffler can advertise his Ryder Cup credentials.
Golf betting tips: TOUR Championship
4pts Rory McIlroy lowest 72-hole score at 12/1 (General)
2pts e.w. Scottie Scheffler lowest 72-hole score at 25/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt e.w. Jason Kokrak lowest 72-hole score at 45/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt e.w. Sergio Garcia lowest 72-hole score at 45/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
If the PGA Tour is to continue with this farcical TOUR Championship system, it can only hope that in subsequent years, the first two events of FedEx Cup Playoffs go as well as they have this time. Set aside concerns over scoring at the BMW Championship and you have a thoroughly engrossing tournament played out as head-to-head between two fascinating characters. Before that, Tony Finau secured the most popular victory of the year at the end of a dramatic Monday in New Jersey.
Not only have these two events gone the distance and played their part in the unfolding Ryder Cup story, but they leave us with a compelling stagger at East Lake, where FedEx Cup position dictates starting score. Last year, the world's best player was given a head start and never looked like losing. This time, Jon Rahm wears that crown and has four shots to find on Cantlay and Finau, with a punch-drunk DeChambeau in third place. The set-up is far more likely to produce something interesting from a fundamentally terrible system.
Whether it does or it doesn't, the PGA Tour has ultimately chosen a path which reduces the likelihood of close-knit Sundays. Perhaps they will get lucky this time. There is at least a stronger chance of that than there was in 2019, when Justin Thomas wore the target but Rory McIlroy ran away with the jackpot. In 2020, Johnson was shorter than 2/1 before hitting a shot. Every time you dared to consider that he might not win, he did something which made you feel foolish for having done so.
Grumblings dealt with, there's no interest here in trying to work out where the value is when it comes to winning the FedEx Cup. Rahm would be the nominal selection and it seems unlikely he's far from the lead come Sunday, albeit the last fortnight has got steadily worse from a dream start and he was not hitting the ball as well as he'd like at the weekend.
My preference is to suggest that as has been the case in both renewals since this format took over in 2019, the lowest 72-hole score will come from further down the list, and SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER is the best each-way bet at the prices.
The logic here is simple: those who begin with shots in hand are under more immediate pressure, and arguably less likely to go out and attack a rain-soaked East Lake. Last year, Xander Schauffele won this market (and valuable world ranking points) by three having began the week eight off the lead and with next to no chance of winning overdue silverware. In 2019, McIlroy landed both with a dominant display from five back.
East Lake, designed by Donald Ross, is a course which is tree-lined and classical in style but long for a par 70, and in recent years it's been largely soft, vulnerable to the longest and best drivers of a golf ball on the PGA Tour. Scheffler ranks 17th in strokes-gained off the tee and is both long and straight — it's this which provides the foundations of an aggressive game.
Sixth in birdie average, that also says much about how he goes about things and nobody has made more birdies than the 72-hole winner here since the staggered starts began. It's therefore no surprise that on his competitive debut at East Lake, where he had played a couple of times before, the Texan was second only to course specialist Schauffele, leading the field in strokes-gained approach and tee-to-green.
Scheffler started from eight behind as a rookie and is nine back here, meaning he will have no thoughts whatsoever about the $15m first prize. Nor should collecting his first official PGA Tour title come to mind and just as Schauffele was not burdened by a series of near-misses given that he was not the actual tournament leader, Scheffler is free to go out and play on the front foot.
That's not to say he's without something to sharpen focus, because the Ryder Cup team will be confirmed next week and this is his final chance to impress captain Steve Stricker. Surely, this has played a part in the performances of Finau and Cantlay, both outside automatic qualification before winning, and now the battle is on for wild card selection we should expect more candidates to strengthen their cases over the coming days.
Scheffler tees off with Daniel Berger in round one, and it's not beyond the realms of possibility that the final place in the US side is between these two. Berger came under consideration for the same reasons and has only been hamstrung by the putter lately, but he's so far struggled on these greens and more so than Scheffler will need that club to fire if he's to produce the required performance.
After a slow start last week, Scheffler climbed to a respectable 22nd and continued to pound greens at a soft, suitable course. The same should apply to East Lake, where it's worth noting that he was the best player in the field over the closing 54 holes last year having needed a look around on Thursday, his TOUR Championship debut.
If the putter behaves — and he's above average both for the season and his last 50 rounds — then he looks in an ideal position. There's every chance he can once again produce at a tough course, just as he's done in the majors all year, and just as he did here in 2020.
Sungjae Im was the first name on my list, his post-Olympics form so clearly progressive and with seven shots separating him and Cantlay. The Korean has every part of his game working, could improve again for bermuda greens, and prefers this sort of old-fashioned test to the massive modernity of Caves Valley, where nevertheless he finished a good third.
All of that plus the fact he was the halfway leader in 72-hole scoring last year courtesy of a second-round 64 makes him interesting, but East Lake received a deluge on Monday and will play long. It's not impossible that Im overcomes the handicap just as he did last week, but he lacks a yard or two from the tee and for that reason alone is left out.
Instead, RORY MCILROY looks worth one more go to end the season on a high.
Eight back and playing alongside Dustin Johnson in round one, McIlroy is believes he can play his way into this and potentially win his third FedEx Cup, which would take his bonus earnings in Playoffs well beyond the $40m mark should he achieve it.
For now though it's all about getting off to another good start first and foremost, just as he did last week, and if he has banished those Thursday blues then he has to be the biggest threat to Rahm in this market. Certainly I believe he should be shorter than everyone else and yet the market has him alongside Schauffele, and only a fraction ahead of Thomas, Johnson and DeChambeau.
McIlroy simply adores East Lake. He's won here twice, been second on another occasion, and played in the final group during Tiger Woods' tour de force in 2018, which probably cost him second or third as he fell to seventh. Last year, he got off to a fast start but couldn't kick on having arrived late following the birth of his daughter, and fourth place last week courtesy of a top-class driving performance sets him up perfectly for another strong bid.
Yes, his approach work still needs to get better and cost him the chance to challenge Cantlay and DeChambeau, but everything else is firing and it's been encouraging to see him putt better for returning to an old TaylorMade Spider which had been gathering dust in the garage.
McIlroy has contended here every single time he's played the TOUR Championship, leading at some stage in four of his seven appearances and sitting second, fifth and fourth through 54 holes of the others, and as we saw at Quail Hollow earlier in the year he's well capable of coming alive on courses where's he's enjoyed success before.
Throw in the fact he's further back than he would like, and that bar Schauffele those around him in the market have been far less effective here, and there's a lot to like.
The other two on my list are JASON KOKRAK and SERGIO GARCIA and after some deliberation, I'll put forward both.
Kokrak started from 10 back last year and finished T9 of 30 players in this 72-hole scoring market. In doing so he ranked third in strokes-gained approach but putted poorly, very much part and parcel of the Kokrak experience at the time. Since then, however, he's transformed his putting and with it gone on to collect two PGA Tour titles.
The most recent of them came at Colonial, another tough par 70 with bermuda rough demanding strong driving, and while not quite at Garcia levels he is both long and well inside the top 30 off the tee this year. It's fair to say that his driver has been a little problematic lately but any improvement there would make him a big player, having ranked eighth in approaches and 12th in putting at the BMW Championship last week.
As with Scheffler, there's strong Ryder Cup motivation and as with McIlroy, he'll start the tournament eight shots behind. With plenty of form at similar courses to his name and his overall improvement on the greens having carried over to bermuda at Southwind recently, he can go well at 45/1.
Garcia meanwhile is right up there as one of the longest and best drivers in the sport, and his excellent record at East Lake includes a play-off defeat in 2008 where he led the field from tee-to-green.
More recently, he last played here in 2017 and after a slow start, his nine-under total over the final 54 holes was second only to Schauffele, better than the likes of Thomas and Kevin Kisner who were battling it out for the title while Garcia had to settle for a share of 10th.
All of his best form in the USA is in the southern states, such as his Masters win here in Georgia and PLAYERS title in Florida, and having made his home in Texas he's plainly more effective here than in Maryland where last week he did most things well to finish sixth.
It's been a good, solid run from the Spaniard from May onwards, with seven top-30 finishes in eight starts including dramatic improvement in majors, contending twice including at the Colonial in Texas, and rubber-stamping his Ryder Cup credentials.
The fact he's back at East Lake for the first time in four years tells you how well he's played bar a spring slump and a technical but long par 70 like this is perfect for him. We can't be sure he'll putt as well as he did last week, but any downturn could well be compensated by improved ball-striking and he can freewheel from down at the bottom of the leaderboard.
Posted at 1230 BST on 31/08/21
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