Ben Coley put up the first two home in last year's Portugal Masters, and is happy to back defending champion George Coetzee to go in again.
Golf betting tips: Portugal Masters
2pts e.w. Sam Horsfield at 33/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
2pts e.w. Robert MacIntyre at 33/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. George Coetzee at 45/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Romain Langasque at 100/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Callum Shinkwin at 100/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Thorbjorn Olesen at 100/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
With just three events to go in the 2021 European Tour schedule, one of which is closed to all bar the top 50 on the Race to Dubai, things are about to get serious. There's still no Qualifying School but come Sunday there will be 20 Challenge Tour players ready to accept cards, and while golf's major tours do their best to look after existing members, there are many here in Portugal who are playing for the right to compete at this level next year.
Some will tell you that too much fuss is made of these subplots; that the myriad categories and exemptions and invites and back-doors mean that status isn't everything. They're wrong. Having job security is the number one target for most professional golfers who are not at the very top of the sport. There's a trophy to be won here at Dom Pedro Victoria, not to mention a huge sum of money, but for many in the field such a target is secondary.
Justin Walters is perhaps the poster boy for what it all means. In 2013, soon after the death of his mother, Walters finished second to hold onto his playing rights. Most weeks, losing by a single stroke hurts, but not this time: his tears were of pride, joy, sadness, relief and whatever else, but nothing to do with not winning. Six years later and on the same 18th green, Walters repeated the feat.
Further up the Race to Dubai, there's a different kind of incentive for those hovering around 50th place. The opportunity to participate in the DP World Tour Championship, the best tournament remaining anywhere this year, isn't one players who've had good seasons want to miss, especially now that it's part of a two-week sign off. Getting there might allow a player to ease into next season rather than get straight at it in South Africa just days after this one ends.
That's the background to an established tournament with a regular home, one which has always been popular with UK tourists in particular. If Walters is the poster boy for cards and categories, Dom Pedro Victoria might be the blueprint for resort golf on the European Tour, with generally sparse rough and plenty of risk-reward holes encouraging aggressive golf. Tougher conditions lately have nudged the average winning score below 20-under for the first time, but the emphasis remains clear: attack, and make a lot of birdies.
Given the nature of the course, it's not surprising that some of the most exciting players on the circuit have won here: Alvaro Quiros, Tom Lewis, Alex Levy, Lucas Bjerregaard among them. Hitting it a long way helped all four and it's often been said that extreme waywardness isn't punished properly here, with those missing fairways by five yards suffering worse lies than those missing by 15. That changed in 2020, when the absence of crowds made things a little more even, but the outcome still fit the formula and it's one we don't need to stray far from.
Matt Wallace is back in form and closing in on a return to the world's top 50, he's won elsewhere in Portugal and he's shot several good rounds here, but he looks short at 14/1. The same is surely true of Andrew Johnston, it's still difficult to argue that Richard Bland is worth following to a potential second win at prices like 25/1, and while Laurie Canter is smack-you-in-the-face obvious, that's reflected in quotes as short as 16/1.
Birdies the order of the day in Portugal
I prefer to seek out slightly bigger prices about massive talents, and from a shortlist of Thomas Pieters, Min Woo Lee, SAM HORSFIELD and ROBERT MACINTYRE, the latter duo are preferred.
Horsfield's course form (59-MC-49) will be off-putting for some, but he reminds me a bit of Canter, who turned up here last October as a player transformed. The fact he'd struggled at the course when a much poorer version didn't matter, and his top-class long-game and natural aggression paved the way to a career-best finish.
It's been two years since Horsfield played here, and he's since won twice on the European Tour. Indeed when 59th on his debut in the event the Anglo-Floridian was ranked 1939th in the world; his form was patchy at best a year later, and unspectacular on his latest appearance. To my eye they really don't tell us much, especially as even in 2019 he was so utterly dependent on his putter.
Now, Horsfield is a quality iron player, the best in this field according to this season's stats. That's translated to first in birdie average, and these two categories, combined with a bit of power, look perfect for Vilamoura. We are still talking about a player who needs certain conditions to really thrive, and the headline selection should have no excuses at a course like this one.
By contrast, his form prior to a welcome break came under the wrong conditions, first when firm, fast and links-like in the Dutch Open, then when braving cold and downright unpleasant weather in the Dunhill Links. Horsfield was not raised on the linksland of the UK and is far more effective on bigger, more modern courses, or else ones he can attack such as Karen in Nairobi where he perhaps ought to have won in the spring.
Arriving in that form, he'd be challenging Wallace for favouritism, and it can still pay to pinpoint the right events for all he's disappointed us a few times. Not to labour the point but while yet to deliver the desired result, his results when selected on these pages this year read 3-4-5-WD-6-23. That sequence includes his four best finishes from 19 starts and he was bang in the mix on Sunday in Prague before a sloppy finish saw him fall to 23rd.
In other words, I feel confident that we're getting him right, and am happy to stick at it for another week. His approach play remains of a seriously high standard and at 53rd in the Race to Dubai, he can earn himself a third crack at the season-ending DP World Tour Championship.
Bob to get back on track
MacIntyre meanwhile makes his course debut and does so after a chastening few months. Following a fine effort to finish eighth in the Open, the young Scot had both a PGA Tour card and Ryder Cup debut at his fingertips, but made a mess of Korn Ferry Tour Finals as the likes of Matthias Schwab and Lucas Herbert took their chances, the latter winning in Bermuda to show just how quickly things can snowball.
Like Herbert, who finished runner-up here in 2018, MacIntyre has some correlating form in Dubai and he looks made for this test, one which should free him up to play aggressively at last. It's hard to overstate the pressure he put himself under in August and September and playing the BMW PGA Championship followed by the Dunhill Links at St Andrews extended that through to October, before he took in the intense challenge of Valderrama and finished down the field.
Making the weekend there might allow him to draw a line under things and refreshed for the final few events, his place in the DP World Tour Championship already assured, he reminds me a bit of Rory McIlroy over on the PGA Tour, who won a low-scoring event after letting it all go at the Ryder Cup.
MacIntyre, who at 61st in the world could secure starts in everything next year with a big week, won at this time in 2020, and it coincided with a gear shift in terms of difficulty and pressure. Before going 3-1 across a dream fortnight in Cyprus, he'd withdrawn from the Scottish Championship and finished 58th at Wentworth, managing just one top-20 finish in eight starts following his return to action.
One year on, I wouldn't be at all surprised if something similar happened and he's one to watch very closely over the next three weeks. It may take nothing more than an gentler introduction and shifting of the emphasis to unleash the talent we all know he has, and at 33/1 he's further down the market than is usually the case. He was only a shade bigger at Wentworth where Viktor Hovland and Tyrrell Hatton headed the betting.
Can Coetzee repeat the feat?
Last year's renewal couldn't have gone better thanks to GEORGE COETZEE and Canter, selected at 18/1 and 70/1 respectively and filling the first two positions as Tommy Fleetwood's world-class ball-striking was undermined by a bad week on the greens.
As mentioned, Canter has stacks in his favour as he looks to gain a deserved breakthrough, but the contrast between his odds and those of Coetzee is quite remarkable, the South African surely having been underestimated.
The reason he went off second-favourite to Fleetwood was not only that he'd won back home a week earlier, but that he adores it here. Coetzee's worst finish in eight starts is 31st, he averages 67.87 which translates to around 12-under per tournament over a period of 10 years, and he also thrives at Doha which is arguably the best form guide.
All that remains true, except he's now won the event, his first European Tour title outside of Africa and a significant milestone in his career. The reason for the 50/1 quoted (45/1 with seven places) about a successful title defence is that his form isn't so easy on the eye, and yet even in a fairly quiet year his fundamentals remain strong as he ranks 47th in birdie average and 10th in putting.
What's more, I'm not sure he's even out of form. Last time we saw him Coetzee made 14 birdies and finished mid-pack at Valderrama, where he's never likely to threaten, and before that he was a solid 24th in the Open de Espana courtesy of 21 birdies. He's made five of his last six cuts, the exception being the Dunhill Links where he has one top-20 finish in nine tries and hasn't been competitive in several years now.
Returning to that Valderrama effort, it's all the more encouraging given that he shot 76 in round one. Only one player in the field fared worse on Thursday yet advanced to the weekend, and that's the sort of achievement a professional golfer can draw something from when they know they're not quite at their best.
Ultimately, the standout course specialist in this field screams value. There's some quality at the top of it, but Coetzee's best is equal to or better than everyone around him in the market and he's a superior player to the likes of Fabrizio Zanotti, Will Besseling, Alex Bjork and Jorge Campillo, all of them shorter.
Course form can be a red herring when a player simply isn't where they need to be, but Coetzee is ticking over nicely. It may just be that a return to his number one European Tour stop, bar perhaps his home course in Pretoria, sees him turn encouraging golf into contending golf. He's must-bet material.
Beyond these three the list of options was hard to narrow down. Pep Angles for example arrives off a career-best European Tour performance and suddenly has a chance to keep his card, at a course where he produced his standout finish (T12) in an otherwise terrible campaign back in 2018.
Angles, a big-hitter who saves his best for his native Spain and neighbouring Portugal, has to have an each-way chance if building on what he did in Mallorca, and the same goes for Quiros, a former champion here whose iron play has been as good as just about anyone's for a while. We've been on Quiros from 350/1 in Italy down to 66s last time but in this stronger field, I have to drag myself off the train.
French fancy looks overpriced
Instead, the classy ROMAIN LANGASQUE is worth sticking with, for all there's a nagging doubt that another 23-under winning total would perhaps be less than suitable.
Hopefully we get something more in line with Coetzee's 16-under, the 2020 renewal having been one of the hardest so far despite yielding a round of 61 on Thursday. Come the end of the week, anyone reaching 10-under bagged the place money and that sort of test would bring Langasque firmly into the equation.
It should be clear to anyone following the European Tour that he's turned a corner recently, first starting well in the Dutch Open, Dunhill Links and Open de Espana, extending that to the halfway lead in the Andalucia Masters, and offering more signs of encouragement with bookend 67s in Mallorca.
Strokes-gained data from the latter event comes with an asterisk as there were no volunteers on the ground and caddies were instead required to provide distances, which tends to exaggerate things at both ends of the spectrum. However, we can be confident that Langasque produced another strong tee-to-green display, and he led the field in the old-fashioned and in this case reliable metric that is ball-striking.
It was on the back of a similar display that he won the Wales Open last August, a victory that means he's nothing to worry about even at 119th in the Race to Dubai, and I'm hopeful he can show that Dom Pedro is a good course for him. Certainly, Langasque's driving isn't far behind Canter's when on-song, and any improvement in the putter would make him a serious danger to all.
Langasque has only played here once, and a share of 39th in 2017 might not look much. However, he'd missed six cuts coming in and would miss three more after, which suggests he found serious comfort here. His return comes at a good time and he's a long way down the betting for one so capable.
The same comment applies to Sean Crocker, who shot 73-67 here four years ago when at the very beginning of his professional career. A fabulous ball-striker, the American has contended several times over the last 12 months, has correlating form in Qatar where he contended on an invite, and got his driver purring again in Mallorca.
He'll need to dial in the irons as well but it's unlikely his malaise lasts for long and having been sent off at very short odds a couple of months ago, he's suddenly out of favour. For that reason he was the first name on my list, but he's now the last man off it with CALLUM SHINKWIN narrowly preferred.
Like MacIntyre, Shinkwin can soon toast the one-year anniversary of a Cyprus win, having taken the first event at Aphrodite Hills. In doing so the Englishman showed that he can compete when scoring is low and he did so on a similar par 71, one which might tie in quite nicely with Dom Pedro if we ever get to see it again.
I'm not really mad on biorhythms myself and the case here is more about one of the best drivers on the circuit, who has been playing well for a while, and need only find a similar upturn on the greens to that which powered his breakthrough.
Shinkwin finished 17th here on his debut in the event after an opening 64, came back and shot 65 in round one the following year, and is a far better player than when missing the cut as one who was fighting for his card in 2019. Now established as a winner and exempt through next season, he's well capable of kicking on.
There wasn't much wrong with Shinkwin's T37 at Valderrama, where his previous form read 67-29-MC, nor 39th in the Dunhill Links where he was 19th with a round to go. Rewind to late summer and he finished fourth in Wales, 16th in Scotland and third in England, and at a course where English players have won seven of 14 renewals he looks a live one who could bully the scoring holes as Lewis has done twice before.
Bjorn again?
Nino Bertasio was the halfway leader here in 2017 thanks to back-to-back 65s, and he's a player I've always thought capable of more. Long enough off the tee and with his iron play good right now, the Italian is really hard to predict with the putter but is in good form following a strong run in Spain.
He's one to consider but I'll take my chances with THORBJORN OLESEN to complete the staking plan.
Olesen's career has clearly derailed since his arrest in 2019 and who knows what will come of that case if the trial goes ahead in December, having been delayed more than once. Clearly it's possible that only once behind him can he really get back on track, and he isn't one for maximum faith.
However, 20th at Valderrama last time was an eye-catching performance, holes seven and nine costing him a crack at Matt Fitzpatrick (seven-under for the other 66 holes; Fitzpatrick won in six-under). Crucially, Olesen produced his best strokes-gained approach figure since his European Tour suspension was lifted and he made 16 birdies at one of the toughest courses on the circuit.
A five-time winner at this level, Olesen has always been better served by low-scoring conditions and while yet to put it all together here, he's made all seven cuts since narrowly missing out on debut a decade ago, shooting rounds of 64 and 66 in the process.
Last September he was fifth after round one and Dom Pedro is a course which allows him to get away with the odd errant drive, which he's always had in his locker. It's similar in many respects to Doha, where he's been second and third, and the Portugal Masters title is one Olesen is capable of contending for.
Despite being 141st in the Race to Dubai, Olesen is exempt through the 2022 season regardless, but he's a class act who can do damage here if kicking on following one of his most encouraging performances of the year.
Posted at 1740 GMT on 01/11/21
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