Golf expert Ben Coley previews the Open de Espana, where world number one Jon Rahm will bid for a famous hat-trick.
Golf betting tips: Open de Espana
1.5pts e.w. Masahiro Kawamura at 45/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Adri Arnaus at 60/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Adrian Meronk at 100/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Jazz Janewattananond at 125/1 (BetVictor 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
Officially, Jon Rahm is a seven-time European Tour winner who is about to play in his 53rd European Tour event. By any standard that's a phenomenal start to a career still in its relative infancy, one which has scaled new heights since last he played in the Open de Espana. Rahm won his home championship in 2018 and 2019, by two and five shots respectively, and returns in search of a hat-trick as both a major champion and the sport's top-ranked player.
Unofficially, we really need to filter those statistics to do justice to the way in which this Basque beast has dominated when he's come over from the PGA Tour. Better would be to strip away the majors and WGCs — how he has played against the best golfers in the world, on the other side of the world, isn't relevant — and doing so leaves us with something quite astonishing. Rahm has played in just 16 regular European Tour events, and he has won six of them. That's not a strike-rate you're supposed to see in this sport.
The first of his victories in Spain came at a course he knew extremely well. The second came here, at Club de Campo Villa de Madrid, which he says he doesn't. Yet despite a relatively sluggish start in a marquee Spanish three-ball, Rahm kept tabs on the leaders and then took control of the tournament with a back-nine 28 on Saturday, which he followed by a front-nine 32 on Sunday. Those sixty blows came courtesy of a gear nobody else in the field had — not even Sergio Garcia.
In the end, Rahm was five shots better than Rafa Cabrera Bello, with Samuel del Val and Adri Arnaus next on the leaderboard in what was a celebration of Spanish golf in front of massive Spanish crowds. Rahm's dominance can be displayed in many ways, from the fact he played 12 par-fives in 12-under par, to the 10 shots which separated his name from that of seventh-placed Garcia.
With no Garcia this time, it's not an exaggeration to say that the only thing which might prevent Rahm from landing the hat-trick is himself. He is so far superior to everyone else, even second favourite and Ryder Cup teammate Bernd Wiesberger, that the outcome of the tournament depends much on whether he can come here for his first start since that Wisconsin washout, and produce more sparkling golf in front of adoring fans.
Rahm is plainly motivated to achieve all that he can, to pursue Seve Ballesteros's 50 European Tour wins when opportunity allows. He's a credit to all those who've played a part in his development, and there's a strong chance, with the weather set fair, that he becomes the first man in more than a century to win this tournament three times in succession.
So where does that leave us? Playing for second is the most straightforward answer, and I'm not sure the case against Rahm really needs making in any great detail. This is golf, and he may not play well, is the shortened version, and it's enough to overlook prices around the 9/4 mark. If Rahm wins, so be it.
Of the key opposition, Guido Migliozzi makes plenty of appeal but he's being backed all the time and has to be left out as a result, with MASAHIRO KAWAMURA preferred at around the 50/1 mark.
One of just two players to match Rahm on the par-fives here two years ago, the Japanese finished in a share of seventh to demonstrate a liking for the course. He's since gone on to add a top-10 finish at Valderrama and while Club the Campo is not as claustrophobic as its more famous cousin, it is similar in some respects and has thrown up some strong leaderboard ties.
Kawamura takes a while to warm to given his unorthodox swing but he's become one of the better maidens on the European Tour, his game underpinned by strong driving. While the strokes-gained stats we have from 2019 are not reliable, they are likely close enough to offer a decent indication and it wouldn't surprise anyone to learn that Rahm led the field.
Kawamura is capable of something close to that standard and his missed cut in the Dunhill Links just isn't a concern at all. Not only had he also missed the cut in that event two years ago, but his links record so far amounts to nothing, and he appears to be far better suited to this type of golf course.
Before Scotland, his form read 5-3-16-55-21-5-17 and besides, he was par or better for 47 of the 54 holes and coped perfectly well with Carnoustie. One or two mistakes on a links course in no way undermine his prospects here, and at 11th in strokes-gained off the tee in 2021 he is one of the most reliable drivers of a ball in the field.
Arnaus can rise to the occasion
At 50/1 he rates the best bet but similar prices about ADRI ARNAUS are also worth taking.
This talented youngster has been a little frustrating in what's his third year on the European Tour, and it's largely because his obvious strength has at times been a major weakness. Back in 2019 he was the fourth-best driver on the circuit, yet now he ranks 113th of 181 players.
To fulfil his potential he'll need to arrest the slide and I expect he'll do so, but in the here and now we do have to accept that risk: that as has so often been the case of late, one or two foul balls off the tee will undermine a lot of good work, and negate the big improvements he's made with the putter.
However I can't help but take encouragement from his record in Spain, which shows four top-10 finishes in five starts as a European Tour member. This is a proud golfing nation, and Arnaus is not the first nor will he be the last to find improvement simply for a return home. The leaderboard here in 2019 was dominated by the Spanish flag from day one, and a year earlier it was Nacho Elvira who gave Rahm most to think about.
Despite his obvious issues with the driver, Arnaus led after the first round of the Dunhill Links on his way to 24th place last week, and was second at halfway in Italy when eventually finishing 12th. Between the two came a narrow missed cut at Wentworth, and he ultimately doesn't look far away.
Back in May, he put an end to a poor run of form with a lucrative spell in the Canary Islands, the first chance he'd had to play in Spain since thriving in the spotlight here in 2019, when he played with childhood friend Rahm over the first two days and relished the opportunity.
Earlier that year he played both weekend rounds at Valderamma in the company of Garcia, outscoring the course specialist on his way to second, and this massive talent can do as so many Europeans do and once again step up on home soil.
Arnaus has been home a fair bit lately, despite also having a base in Dubai, and we don't need much in the way of improvement for another trip to Spain given the flashes he's been showing.
David Puig is among the other Spanish players of note, as one of the world's very best amateurs. He might go well early on but the most interesting alternatives were Jorge Campillo and Alvaro Quiros, the former with three top-10 finishes in the event, the latter having won it in 2010 and played well here in the past.
Big-hitting certainly looks a decent starting point given how important the par-fives will be this week. There are only three of them, but Rahm was 12-under and 2008 Madrid Masters winner Charl Schwartzel played them in a remarkable 15-under as he bullied the scoring holes at a course which does offer up that possibility.
Polish youngster can drive to contention
Schwartzel's compatriot Wilco Nienaber was again tempting as a result along with Min Woo Lee and Sean Crocker, but ADRIAN MERONK rates a better bet all things considered.
As with Kawamura we have to forgive a missed cut in the Dunhill Links, but Meronk had struggled on his sole previous start in the event and is equally lacking in links form. Before that he missed the weekend at Wentworth only narrowly, purely because he had a shocker around the greens, and these high-class events aren't worth dwelling on.
Meronk actually went back home to win the Polish PGA Championship between the two and it's only a month since he finished runner-up in Italy, where his long driving and quality approach play were huge assets on a big, modern course which will host the 2023 Ryder Cup.
Club de Campo provides a very different aesthetic but it might be best attacked in a similar way and when he has conditions in his favour, this talented youngster makes it pay. He's managed four top-10 finishes over the last 12 months, and on each occasion has finished tied for third or better.
He's gone close in Spain at a lower level in the past and simply looks overpriced here, as one of the best drivers in the field (sixth this season), who is 10th among them in strokes-gained total, and could well be up to the task of racking up those cheap birdies and eagles we'll need.
Others of note include two I like in the first-round leader market: Julian Suri and Robin Sciot-Siegrist. Both have been making cuts lately, the former we know is highly capable, and the latter is one of the mid-ranking European Tour players who looks to me to be very close to a breakout performance.
At 200/1 each, they were both considered in the outright market but it could be worth speculating that either could make a strong start. Suri tends to do that in bursts and his current run of 68-69-69 on day one might lead to something lower, while Sciot-Siegrist has twice hit the crossbar for his Thursday followers in his last four starts.
At silly prices, Thomas Aiken won this a decade ago and his 23rd here in 2019 was his best performance of a dreadful year. Given that last week's 24th was his standout effort since, there's an appealing look to his profile in some respects and the 38-year-old is more than capable of competing at this level.
Aiken's career has been hit hard over the last two years, first his wife becoming badly ill during childbirth and then a hurricane wrecking their home in the Bahamas. Now based in Florida, he qualified for the US Open this summer and while he's shown nothing since, there is at least a chance he could build on a good performance in Scotland.
Unpredictable Jazz worth benefit of the doubt
The other who made the shortlist but wasn't selected was Jason Scrivener, whose missed cut at the Dunhill Links is easily forgiven as it was his first start since the Open Championship. The reason for the break was that he became a father in August, and he could yet advertise the merits of the nappy factor at a course where he finished seventh in 2019.
Instead though I'll finish with JAZZ JANEWATTANANOND who, like Meronk, might be being overlooked a little prematurely.
This Thai youngster is far from consistent but that's not necessarily a bad thing when betting on golf, and it's not difficult to forgive him Friday's shocker at Carnoustie. Either side of that ugly 83, Jazz shot 66 and 69 to suggest the game which took him to a top-10 finish in the KLM Open remains in good enough shape.
That performance in the Netherlands saw him rank sixth in strokes-gained approach and it was just a narrow missed cut at Wentworth beforehand, while throughout the season we've seen him demonstrate the improved driving which has been in evidence since he started working with Pete Cowen a couple of years ago.
It may be that this tree-lined, undulating course, one you might say wouldn't be out of place on the Asian Tour he dominated in 2019, brings out the best in Jazz on what's his first start in Spain since he eagled the final hole at Qualifying School to earn his European Tour card.
Certainly, second place in Kenya, third in Malaysia and at Galgorm Castle plus fourth at Fanling in the Hong Kong Open are encouraging form lines with this particular test in mind, and he's up to hitting the frame at a price.
Posted at 1900 BST on 04/10/21
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