Golf betting tips: Preview and best bets for the Mallorca Golf Open
Ryan Fox can double his European Tour tally at the Mallorca Golf Open, where conditions look ideal for the big-hitting New Zealander.
Golf betting tips: Mallorca Golf Open
2pts e.w. Ryan Fox at 28/1 (BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1.5pts e.w. Romain Langasque at 50/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Alvaro Quiros at 80/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Rhys Enoch at 200/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Marcus Kinhult at 200/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Sebastian Garcia-Rodriguez at 200/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
There are myriad membership categories on the European Tour, and one significant Catch-22: for lower-ranked members to earn more world ranking points, they need stronger fields. To achieve stronger fields, sponsors must inject more prize money. When that happens, affiliate members and those based primarily on the PGA Tour turn up and, increasingly, threaten to take most of the points and the money home with them. Those lower down the chain have to raise their games, that's if they can get one at all.
This reality has been underlined in the weeks following the Ryder Cup, as Danny Willett, Rafa Cabrera Bello and Matt Fitzpatrick have all won. Victory was so obviously sweet for Cabrera Bello, who took his national open after a dramatic finish. Fitzpatrick was almost as delighted to have ticked an item off the 'bucket list' at Valderrama, and Willett's behind-the-scenes changes paid dividends as he yet again found winning a big event easier than he does winning a smaller one. All were feel-good stories, but all were written when certain players need to guarantee their futures, and time is running out.
There are now just four events left of the European Tour season, and the last of those — worth more than double the combined prize money of the other three — is available only to the top 50 on the Race to Dubai. So while in some ways it's a shame to wave goodbye to Jon Rahm, who so admirably did his bit for Spanish golf over the last fortnight, there's an element of relief ahead of the Mallorca Golf Open. It isn't worth all that much, but someone here might change their life.
It's 10 years since the Tour last visited the island and longer since it went to Santa Ponsa, which presents something of a conundrum. On the one hand, there was just a single round of 66 or lower when Miguel Angel Jimenez triumphed here in 1998, just four in 1995, four in 1993, one in 1992, and none in 1991. Translated, it has been very difficult at times, largely because wind is or has been a constant factor. Double-figures under-par has been almost impossible to reach.
On the other, a lot has changed since, and Santa Ponsa remains a fairly short, tourist-friendly venue which could be overpowered. The course's own website confesses to being 'open, uncomplicated, and (with) fairways amongst the most generous on the island', adding that it is the 'ideal place to enjoy ripping your drives'. As has been the case so often over the last 18 months, we'll just have to make do with what seemingly is not the best course in Mallorca, but is able to serve a purpose.
The weather forecast may well be key, and as of right now it is set fair, with what breeze there is playing a part on Thursday evening and into Friday morning. Should that hold then a late-early tee-time may not be beneficial, but just a small shift one way or the other could turn that on its head. Ultimately, my view is that the best recipe here is to find someone who can attack off the tee, and take strong wind or at least coastal form as a back-stop.
Thomas Pieters ticks these boxes and is the man to beat ahead of Sam Horsfield, who is perhaps less comfortable should the wind whip up. But while Pieters was tempting at 16/1, bigger prices about RYAN FOX hold more appeal and he's rated the best bet.
Fox is an in-form big-hitter whose best form has virtually all come by the sea. He's been second and fourth in the Irish Open, fourth and sixth in the Scottish Open, sixth twice at Royal Greens in Saudi Arabia, and 16th in the Open Championship itself. Also placed in the Australian Open, firm and fast conditions are ideal and his ability to fire low bullets into a breeze has often come in handy.
He can admittedly be a little frustrating, but there was nothing wrong with fourth place at Valderrama last week, where his length off the tee can never quite do the damage he'd like it to. Still, it was a strong driving performance, his irons (12th in the field) were as good as they've been since June, and for the third time in four starts he beat the field with his putter.
The signs had been there, Fox having opened with a round of 65 in the Open de Espana and improved as the week went on to be 15th in the Dutch Open, and he really ought to be having a say in this kind of company. Compatriot Greg Turner won here once and Fox, who really won't mind if conditions get tough having also placed in the Open de France, appears to have an obvious chance.
French fancy to supplement Fox
This is a pretty small and weak field and I was inclined to focus on the front of the market, because this time last year, when similar circumstances were at play, we saw class acts often dominate. George Coetzee won at relatively short odds in Portugal, Horsfield did so twice, John Catlin also won twice, Bob MacIntyre got off the mark, and the likes of Andy Sullivan, Rasmus Hojgaard, Adrian Otaegui and Aaron Rai showed the value of winning form.
Earlier this year, when the European Tour headed back to the Canary Islands for three weeks, we saw two resort courses ripped apart, again by form players with a class edge in Garrick Higgo and Dean Burmester. It's not difficult to envisage someone like Pieters, Horsfield or Adri Arnaus making hay, for all the latter remains a maiden, and all of these names should be seriously considered.
However, in the hope that the combination of breeze and the 11 lakes dotted around here can keep a lid on scoring, the no-less-classy ROMAIN LANGASQUE is backed to build on 11th place at Valderrama.
Langasque had been in something of a funk but there's been a notable upturn in his approach play lately, and it conjured strong starts to the Dutch Open, Dunhill Links and Open de Espana, before he again found himself in the mix last week. Although fading at the weekend, it was a big step up and could preempt a strong finish to the year.
"I played really solid again today, like yesterday," he said on Friday. "My long game is very good – my driving is really good – I drove a good one on 17, hit a good second shot just over the green and made a long putt for the eagle. That was the bonus for the day. Even without that it would have been a good day.
"I didn’t make many mistakes, that was the key for today. I stayed really patient and had a lot of pleasure. That was the most important thing."
Langasque has remained an excellent driver of the ball, ranking 17th this season, and he should be able to get after this course off the tee. Should things get tricky thereafter, his wind and links smarts may make up for some iffy approach work this season, but as mentioned it's been much better lately regardless.
A former winner of both the Spanish Amateur and the Amateur Championship, which he landed at Carnoustie, Langasque has since confirmed that coastal conditions bring out his best. He's been third in Scotland, Denmark and Mauritius and his two wins, one on the Challenge Tour and then last year in Wales, came when conditions were somewhere between very tough and very much straightforward.
My best guess would be something in the region of 15-under winning here and siding with a long and strong driver who appears to have turned a corner, and can definitely cope in the wind, makes plenty of appeal.
Race for precious points
Niall Kearney has been one of the quiet success stories of the year and serves to underline the issues touched upon at the top of this preview. The Irishman ranks a lofty 12th for strokes-gained total, which measures how a player performs versus the field, but the combination of limited opportunities and small purses means he's currently 130th on the Race to Dubai.
It looks like Kearney needs one more really good week to get his card and it could come here, given that he is in form and closed with a round of 61 for fourth place in the Canary Islands Championship. Conditions may not be quite so friendly this time, but it looks a potential form guide nonetheless.
He's very much shortlisted but RHYS ENOCH showed similar promise during that three-week stretch earlier this year and is a more interesting option at 150/1 and upwards.
Enoch finished 12th on the Sunshine Tour last week, keeping sharp while forced to wait for his next European Tour opportunity, and that was an eye-catching effort given he'd previously struggled at Sun City. In contention throughout, he suffered a disappointing Sunday, but all in all it was a worthwhile venture.
Before that he struck the ball really well at St Andrews to finish a respectable 39th in the Dunhill Links, and it was only a dreadful putting week which saw him fail to capitalise on a strong start in the Dutch Open. That has been a theme lately, as he's been inside the top 10 after round one in three of his last four events, and it's not all that long ago he was the halfway leader at the London Club in the Cazoo Classic.
Put another way, he's not necessarily been seeing it through, but there's been a lot of good golf, a comment which also applies to finishes of 38th, 69th and 23rd in the Canary Islands back in April and May. Enoch was second at halfway in the first of those three events and in the mix in the last one, too, while he's also played in the final group of the Scandinavian Mixed.
I like the fact he's driving it better at the moment, and that his iron play is highly capable when firing. He's also won at Sunshine and Challenge Tour level, is well used to playing by the coast given his Cornwall roots, and is probably feeling a good deal better about his game than the market suggests he should be.
Classy Swede worth benefit of the doubt
It would be misleading to say the same of MARCUS KINHULT, but this class act has to be worth chancing after his performance from tee-to-green at Valderrama.
Yes, that course suits a short-hitting player, but it was still particularly encouraging to note definite ball-striking promise. It was in October last year that he snapped a run of missed cuts to secure back-to-back top-10 finishes, and if he keeps hitting it well, a similar jolt of improvement could well be forthcoming.
Indeed Kinhult's approach play last week was as good as it has been since and perhaps suggests that he's getting back on track following a shock epilepsy diagnosis earlier in the season. No wonder he's struggled just a little since returning following three months away, but things will be looking up if he can make the weekend again here.
Obviously we'll need more than that but less than two years ago he lost a play-off for a Rolex Series event in South Africa, forcing Tommy Fleetwood to pull out all the stops. Earlier in 2019 Kinhult won the British Masters at the expense of several quality operators, and this formerly top-class amateur has loads about him.
He's also very comfortable by the coast, having contended in Qatar, Oman, Portugal and Scotland as well as that victory at Hillside, and while I'm leaning towards better drivers, I can make an exception in this case. It certainly looks to be a course where shorter hitters can compete, and at the odds there's no hesitation in rolling the dice.
Outsiders on the shortlist
If there's a low-ranking European Tour player whose profile clearly states that a relatively low-scoring event by the coast is what he wants, then it may well be Matthieu Pavon, and he'd have made the staking plan had the early 150/1 remained.
Pavon was eighth in the Gran Canaria Lopesan earlier this year and has since been 12th in the Scottish Open and the Dunhill Links. Go back to 2017 and he almost won the Scottish Open, as well as finishing second in Mauritius and third at Morgado in Portugal, where Higgo won before delivering (twice) by the sea in the Canary Islands.
Also third in Oman, 10th in a strong Irish Open, 11th in Saudi Arabia and at the Dubai Desert Classic, Pavon might like this and the fact his strongest asset is his driving is also noteworthy. Much may depend on whether he can get his putter purring again after two poor weeks on the mainland, and if so those who took the opening show might get a good run for their money.
Compatriot Adrien Saddier was in good form when last seen and won the Challenge de Espana five years ago while Matthew Jordan has plenty in his favour towards the front of the betting, but I want to sign off with a couple of Spaniards who should be at home in the conditions.
First, ALVARO QUIROS continues to hint at something better and can capitalise on his length and improved approach play at this sort of course.
Victories in Portugal, Qatar, Dubai and Sicily all confirm that he's good in the breeze, and I don't think his long-game has been as solid as it is now for several years.
Although it didn't quite work out for him at Valderrama, Quiros gained strokes with his approaches yet again, making it seven starts in succession. He hadn't managed more than three since the European Tour began gathering data, and it's quality ball-striking which has powered his best form throughout the past couple of years.
He'll need to find another step forward with the putter but was better at Valderrama and very good two starts before that in the Dunhill Links, where yet again he underlined that playing by the sea is not a problem.
Quiros has been steadily climbing the Race to Dubai thanks to a string of solid if unspectacular performances, and he has all the back class needed to suggest he might produce fireworks over the next three weeks with so much at stake. He's worth another go here and should be on the shortlist for Portugal regardless.
Finally, SEBASTIAN GARCIA-RODRIGUEZ has driven it really well over the last fortnight, building on above-average efforts beforehand, and is the sort of streaky type who might be able to avoid mistakes if the wind stays away.
He was a good 25th at Valderrama but is far better off under low-scoring conditions, as demonstrated when 10th in the Hero Open won by Horsfield in 18-under, fourth in a Kenya Open which saw Justin Harding shoot 21-under, and eighth in Tenerife where Burmester blasted his way to 25-under.
Garcia-Rodriguez shot 62 in the first round of the Open de Espana before a better all-round display at Valderrama and has improved for a return home, so if he can find the sort of approach play which saw him finish sixth in the Portugal Masters last year, he can do some damage.
That's no given but he was better last week, significantly so, and the putter was back firing. Indeed he did most things well and was 10th through 54 holes, having been in the mix over the first 36 a week earlier. The key to seeing it through might just be this drop in grade at a course which should allow him to be aggressive from the off.
Posted at 1700 BST on 18/10/21
Click here for Ben Coley's tipping record
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.