Golf betting tips: Preview and best bets for the Hewlett Packard Enterprise Houston Open
Golf expert Ben Coley previews the Houston Open, where favourite Sam Burns may have most to fear from two seasoned major champions.
Golf betting tips: Houston Open
3pts win Sam Burns at 16/1 (General)
2pts e.w. Adam Scott at 33/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. Shane Lowry at 45/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Seamus Power at 50/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
0.5pt e.w. Wyndham Clark at 200/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
0.5pt e.w Jimmy Walker at 300/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
By accident, the Houston Open returned to its traditional pre-Masters slot in 2020 — only in November, rather than April. Not so very long ago, this event was uniquely selfless, the course that was once known as Redstone set-up to mimic Augusta National as best it could. That meant sparse rough, shaved run-offs and the encouragement of driver upon driver, and it went down well with certain Masters champions like Phil Mickelson and Jordan Spieth.
There's some irony, then, in what happened last year. Gone was Redstone, with municipal Memorial Park taking its place. Long gone was that April slot. And yet back came the Masters, and without trying, the event produced not one but two subsequent champions. It proved a perfect way for Dustin Johnson to sharpen up after a Covid-enforced absence, and he shared second with Hideki Matsuyama, triumphant at Augusta in the spring.
Burns hat-trick beckons
Memorial Park is long and difficult and in that respect makes sense as a way to prepare for majors. So while there isn't one until April, and it's unlikely the next Masters champion is in this field, it may well be that we can find clues for this week behind Johnson and Matsuyama. If not there, perhaps Riviera can tell us something: it's difficult, typically as firm as this should be, and can be tied together with Houston not just through those two elite players but the likes of SAM BURNS, Talor Gooch, and champion Carlos Ortiz.
Burns, a runaway leader at Riv early last year before everything fell into place at the Valspar Championship, is plainly the man to beat. He's since won again at the Sanderson Farms, despite rather than because of the putter. The missing piece of the jigsaw has well and truly been found, his iron play now of an exceptional standard. He's fresh, and he's come a long way since failing to convert the 54-hole lead here.
Fifth place at the CJ Cup last time further underlines his lofty status, because Burns wasn't at his best, and he's the form player in this field. With doubts surrounding Brooks Koepka, Tony Finau's putting, the overall health of Tyrrell Hatton's game and whether this might be a bit too long of a slog for Cameron Smith, I can't resist siding with the favourite. He has every chance, and the fact this difficult course brought out the best in the star names last year is encouraging. Burns is now one of them.
Of course, Texas-born Scottie Scheffler rates a danger, more so than Sungjae Im, but 16/1 about the favourite has to be taken, and 14/1 will do, too. It's doubtful Burns lacks motivation as he continues his ascent through the world rankings and he'll certainly be keen to ensure he's part of the next American team, which hosts the Presidents Cup in a year.
Aaron Wise has now confirmed he's back where he ought to be and played well at a time when things were less certain last November. But the fact he's a 30/1 chance and Ortiz is just a shade bigger underlines that this field is typical of the time of year: the highest-ranked player is Tony Finau, in 12th, and many of the big names have eyes on Christmas already.
ADAM SCOTT is an exception and this looks a great chance for the Australian to make up for the Wyndham Championship, where his newly-reliable putter reverted to type and cost him the title.
Scott really ought to have won there and it wasn't surprising that he missed the cut a week later to end his season early. But he's bounced back since, finishing 14th having contended on a trip to Wentworth, 35th on his return to the US, and then fifth in the CJ Cup won by Rory McIlroy.
That shootout in the desert wouldn't necessarily have played to Scott's strengths, but his approach play is back where it was before the pandemic, when he returned from a couple of months away to win at Riviera for the second time in his career. Also a Masters champion, Memorial Park is the sort of unrelenting test he's always enjoyed. Ten of his 14 PGA Tour titles have been earned under difficult conditions; the other four, when he shot 17-under or lower, were only easy for one man that week.
Scott showed a liking for this place a year ago, shooting 68-69 to spend the first two rounds inside the top 10. That came when his game was still lacking something, a late return to action and persistent problems with his driver confining him to mid-pack finishes and underlining that of all the game's best players, he was arguably the one hurt most by the PGA Tour shutdown. Prior to it, Scott had climbed back inside the world's top 10. He's since been dropping steadily.
That slide has been halted now and, with a difficult test ahead, he can begin moving back in the right direction. There's a slight concern that his touch might not be as good as that displayed by Ortiz, but his approaches can compensate. Hitting the right part of these greens is key, just as it is at Augusta, and the 41-year-old might be rewarded for extending his schedule through this and the RSM Classic.
There are no doubt going to be times when creativity around the greens is called upon, with shaved run-offs and contouring demanding all kinds of shots. That's a decision Tom Doak made with the help of Koepka, who consulted on this project and argued that bunkers make life easier for PGA Tour professionals. Instead, they've been presented with greens that are hard to hold, knowing that to miss them is to make par a real struggle.
Such a challenge ought to speak to SHANE LOWRY and it did last year, the Irishman finishing 11th at a time when he wasn't necessarily firing on all cylinders.
Lowry ranked fourth in strokes-gained tee-to-green and was strong in all departments bar putting, which had been an issue for a while. More recently, he seems to have found something to work with as he's gained strokes in each of his last four starts, something he hadn't done since the spring of 2019, just prior to his Open victory.
Definitely comfortable on Bermudagrass, if Lowry can continue to prove as effective on the greens then he should soon find his way back towards the top of the leaderboard, having been quiet in two PGA Tour starts since a good post-Ryder Cup performance on familiar terrain in the Dunhill Links.
The CJ Cup was never going to suit — it was too wide, too easy — but Lowry managed to sign off with a round of 64 nonetheless, before missing the cut on his debut at El Camaleon. That wouldn't concern me either, as it's a quirky layout which heavily penalises certain shots, and he played well enough anyway with rounds of 71 and 69.
Back at a course he knows and under far tougher conditions, Lowry should be in his element. His four top-10 finishes on the PGA Tour this year have all been in events where one might reasonably expect him to play well, which is also true of second place on the Bermuda greens of Southwind last year, and the best recent comparison to this is Liberty National, where he carded a third-round 62 to finish 11th.
That course is firm and tricky around the greens, and something similar should play into his magic hands. The very fact he's here looks a clue in itself and he should go well.
Sticking to the front end of the betting looks the way to go here, for the most part at least, and I'm also keen on Lowry's compatriot SEAMUS POWER.
Up to 89th in the world and climbing, Power is in the form of his life and has kicked on impressively from his breakthrough win on the Bermuda greens of the Barbasol Championship back in summer.
He now has eyes on next year's biggest events and with form figures of MC-21-12-11 to start this season, he's building towards another massive week just as he had been when going 9-19-19-8-8 before that Barbasol success.
Power wasn't able to get a start here last year, when around 400th in the world, and few have come as far in the intervening 12 months. He should take to this, too, as he's brilliant around the greens, long enough to cope with the demands of a par 70 which can play to a monster 7,412 yards, won at arguably the toughest Korn Ferry Tour stop five years ago, and has gone close at the Sanderson Farms which while easier, correlates nicely and has similar greens.
To underline just how well he's playing, Power leads this field in strokes-gained total over the last 36 rounds, sits second to Burns if you measure 50, sixth if you narrow to 24, and higher than his position in the market even if you expand to 100. It can be very difficult to keep up with those so progressive, and in a field with few compelling candidates, 50/1 looks good value for someone at the very top of his game.
With four reasonably confident selections, this could well be a week where ignoring those at three-figure prices is sensible. Options among them include Jhonattan Vegas (100/1 in a place, 90/1 generally), who knows this course better than anyone and has been in much better form than he was when down the field last year, a performance which saw him rank fourth off the tee.
Vegas is a proven winner who is back in his adopted home, he's close friends with the defending champion who also went to college in Texas, and his prowess with driver is a definite asset. He has to be respected and is by far the most compelling option of those around the 100/1 mark.
At bigger odds, another Texas-educated, big-hitting PGA Tour winner merits a second glance. Dylan Frittelli has Augusta National form, showed at Royal St George's what he's capable of under firmer conditions, and has played reasonably well a couple of times this season despite lacking consistency.
But the two I like most are WYNDHAM CLARK and JIMMY WALKER, who are advised to minimum stakes.
Clark is very much similar to the first iteration of Burns, in that he's long, occasionally brilliant on the greens, but has work to do on his approaches. That's probably why he remains a maiden, though he's had a couple of chances under difficult conditions and is certainly capable of getting off the mark in this sort of company.
This time last year he lost a play-off for the Bermuda Championship to Brian Gay, days before arriving in Houston. That makes his missed cut on the number entirely understandable, and the fact he gained strokes not only off the tee but also with his approaches is really quite encouraging.
If Riviera is to prove a guide then Clark's form there, which reads 17th and eighth from two tries, is potentially significant, and he's also shone at the Honda Classic which is a difficult par 70 with trouble lurking everywhere. As for his form in the here and now, he spent all week inside the top 30 in a demanding ZOZO Championship, and there was promise in both the Fortinet and the Shriners before that.
Certainly he appears to be on the way back following a summer slump, and his second-round 69 here last year came courtesy of an outstanding tee-to-green performance and despite a cold putter. There are enough hints that he can outperform odds around the 200/1 mark.
Former major champion well worth chancing
Walker is bigger still, but I think he's been wrongly dismissed after a missed cut last week at a course where his record now reads 69-MC-MC.
Perhaps it's because he played poorly here last year, but his game was in no sort of shape at the time whereas he's shown much more lately. Back in summer he closed with a round of 65 for sixth place in the Memorial Tournament where Patrick Cantlay and Collin Morikawa fought out the finish, and since then he's made each of his five cuts in the USA, missing out only in Scotland and England before a predictably low-key performance in Mexico.
This run includes 24th in the Shriners, solid form by any measure, and 11th in the 3M Open. He made the weekend in the US Open, too, and it's worth noting that his improved results reflect big strides in his approach play. He ranked seventh in the Sanderson Farms and 29th in the Shriners, having been third at Muirfield Village.
Walker has also been deadly around the greens of late, ranking first in the 3M Open and fourth in the Shriners, and his occasionally destructive driving has been better, too. He hits the ball high and long enough to believe he has the right game for Memorial Park if everything clicks, and he's won under tough conditions here in Texas as well as twice on Bermuda greens in the Sony Open.
A top-10 finish at Pinehurst might also be a decent pointer alongside his efforts at Augusta and Riviera, but of course Walker is not the player he was in 2014. He might though be further along the road to recovery than dismissive odds suggest, having played better both on and off the PGA Tour of late. Just over a week ago, he shot 60 in practice, his lowest ever score. He's not done with just yet.
Posted at 1035 GMT on 09/11/21
Click here for Ben Coley's tipping record
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.