Golf betting tips: Preview and best bets for the Cape Town Open
Two course winners feature in Ben Coley's staking plan for the Cape Town Open, the second event of the Challenge Tour season.
Golf betting tips: Cape Town Open
2pts e.w. Deon Germishuys at 25/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1.5pts e.w. Thomas Aiken at 33/1 (BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1.5pts e.w. Jbe Kruger at 33/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Luca Filippi at 55/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
Three speculative bets for the first event of the Challenge Tour season never looked like threatening the place money, but there was some comfort in the outcome as it eventually proved a wise move to resist the favourites on their respective returns to action.
In the end, as anticipated the event was won by a long driver and while not technically part of the home team, Rhys Enoch almost counts. The Welshman, who grew up in Cornwall, is married to a South African, has spent a heck of a lot of time there and had stacks of Sunshine Tour experience before capturing his second title at that level.
Enoch now heads to an event he's won before, the Cape Town Open, and with Wilco Nienaber absent this is another relatively modest affair played at the oldest golf course in Africa. Royal Cape is very different to Zebula in that it is shorter, flatter and tighter, and for a course with some gimme par-fives and a driveable par-four, it's trickier than you might expect.
Winning scores tend to be in the mid-teens, making it a shot or two per round more difficult than last week's venue, and if you want to attack it off the tee you need to be on your game. Tom McKibbin managed it with a sensational 62 a couple of years ago and plenty of powerhouses have contended, but this looks much more of a level playing field.
My biggest-priced selection is LUCA FILIPPI, one of the more promising youngsters in the field.
It's Filippi's close friend Ryan van Velzen who heads the market with some firms and his claims are self-evident. He might just be a bit too good for the Sunshine Tour soon and let's not forget he'd have bypassed this level altogether if second in the SA Open had instead been first.
But at the prices he can just be overlooked in favour of Filippi, who may not be far behind him and has the distinct advantage of playing at home. Born and raised in Cape Town, he plays out of a coastal course not far away, but he knows Royal Cape well having won a big amateur title here at the age of 15.
That sort of form line doesn't always translate but after missing the cut narrowly on his first try in this event, Filippi was 24th on his second having only just entered the world's top 1,000, then last year he shot middle rounds of 67 and 66 (both top-six in the field) before a disappointing Sunday saw him fall to 28th.
Again, his form ahead of that renewal was not good, whereas now he returns after his breakout year. Filippi won Sunshine Tour events in August and October, one of them alongside van Velzen in a team format, and his improvement was underlined with 32nd in the Joburg Open and a top-25 at Leopard Creek in December.
He's not necessarily flown out of the gates this year but 28th after six weeks off was fine before he missed the cut by a single shot at Zebula, and there's absolutely no doubt which of these co-sanctioned events he'll have had an eye on.
Backed by friends and family, this progressive talent might give them plenty to cheer.
Dylan Naidoo looks a very solid option after he defied a bout of food poisoning to climb to fourth having been outside the projected cut-line after round one last week.
That was a step up on previous visits to the bushveld and extended a run of good form which began before Christmas, when he put together finishes of 61-31-15-11 across co-sanctioned DP World Tour events, latterly behind major champion Louis Oosthuizen.
Clearly, this is a heck of a lot less competitive and having finished 14th and fourth at courses he doesn't know as well to begin the year, he now comes back to Royal Cape where he's made all four cuts and has recent form figures of 15-23.
There's no doubt whatsoever that he's an improved player since both of those efforts, equally true is that this is a slightly weaker renewal, and he therefore looks an obvious contender, but one I'd have been happy to put up at nothing shorter than 40/1.
Two-time course winner JC Ritchie will do for some but he's prone to putting hopelessly and while he's less flashy, I prefer JBE KRUGER.
A former winner on the DP World Tour and well-travelled since, Kruger invariably plays well when he returns home and has five top-20s in his last six starts in South Africa.
They include finishes of eighth and 16th to begin the year and given that it was his Zebula debut last week, and that his game is far from the most powerful, three 67s to lie fourth heading into what proved to be a quiet Sunday was a fine effort.
Kruger ended last year playing well in Japan and Saudi Arabia, latterly in a decent event which saw Henrik Stenson finish second, and he should be full of confidence now he tees it up at a course he knows well.
In six starts so far he's made five cuts, never finishing worse than 21st when he's advanced to the weekend, and they include a Challenge Tour-sanctioned renewal two years ago when he'd been quiet generally.
Fourth in 2014, he can contend again and perhaps capture a sixth Sunshine Tour title.
Robin Sciot-Siegrist is a good player for this grade and bet365's 80/1 is generous, while compatriot Martin Couvra remains a bit of an unknown and he could leave behind his return to action last week.
They're respected along with John Axelsen, who at times looked like he could win on the DP World Tour last season only to end it withdrawing from Q School. We'll see how he gets on but the young Dane does have course experience, a closing 67 enough for 22nd three years ago when just starting out as a professional.
Axelsen played amateur golf with the Hojgaard twins and remains a player of potential so I wouldn't put anyone off a speculative bet, but I want to stick to the home team who are at a definite advantage – especially against players like him who return to action following time away.
Last week's selection Dylan Mostert contended at Royal Cape on his first start of 2023 and again defied a slow start to record a decent finish at Zebula, which was a little frustrating as I felt we were very much on the right side of things at three-figure prices.
I don't know as this course is more suitable than that one, though, so will head back up the market for a player I can't get away from in DEON GERMISHUYS.
An occasional DP World Tour contender who qualified for the US Open last summer, Germishuys just looks a bit better than most of these and, like Filippi, he now gets to return to his hometown and a course upon which he's already a winner as an amateur.
He does so on the back of second place at Zebula, which generally suits the power players and he's more about fairways and greens, so Royal Cape ought to help.
Germishuys was very much finding his feet when 19th in 2020, he was struggling a bit when 31st a year later (it was his best finish in six events that year), and around here I doubt there's a more likely winner in this field.
Some firms agree, but six go 20/1 or bigger and at those odds he's a bet, as is THOMAS AIKEN at 25s or more.
Aiken ended last year with three top-20s from five DP World Tour starts and the 40-year-old looks to have built himself a platform again following some difficult years away from the course.
His missed cut last week doesn't worry me too much as he's about the most accurate driver here bar Ashley Chesters, and that skill wasn't even going to be accentuated at Zebula, which he hadn't played before.
Aiken finished off on the front foot and now returns to Royal Cape, where he was fourth on his last visit a decade ago. It's the type of golf course upon which he has always thrived in the past.
Yes, that was the year of his last win but he's been plying his trade at a higher level, and face more than one crisis away from golf which all but wiped out the last three or fours years.
Now 40, he's got a bit more left to give and with no Nienaber, on a more suitable course, this is golden opportunity to contend.
Two other home players of note are Daniel van Tonder and Justin Walters, at 50s and 150s respectively.
Van Tonder has twice held the 54-hole lead here and carded a second-round 64 last week. Prolific on home soil a couple of years ago, more recently it's less than 12 months since he was fifth behind Adrian Meronk in Italy, and he almost kept his card.
Walters finished 119th on the Race to Dubai, ahead of Germishuys and not far behind Oliver Bekker, both of whom are towards the top of the market.
With three top-20s in four starts here that was almost enough to consider putting up the veteran, but he did tail off badly and a mediocre return to action last week means much more is needed.
Finally, Gary Hurley made an eye-catching return from injury last week and is dangled at a big price, but this looks a weak event to me and I anticipate the winner coming from the top dozen in the betting, likely one of the home team.
Posted at 1300 GMT on 07/02/24
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