Golf betting tips: Preview and best bets for the BMW PGA Championship
Matt Cooper stands in for Ben Coley this week and he has four selections for the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth.
Golf betting tips: BMW PGA Championship
1pt e.w. Christiaan Bezuidenhout at 33/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Branden Grace at 40/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Henrik Stenson at 45/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Sam Horsfield at 60/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm and, more surprisingly give his need to persuade Padraig Harrington that he deserves a Ryder Cup pick, Sergio Garcia don’t play this week in the BMW PGA Championship, but the field is a fine one and looks set to enjoy excellent conditions on the West Course at Wentworth. There is hot weather forecast in the lead-up days, which may well add some tasty fire to the fairways and greens ahead of cooler temperatures at the weekend.
Viktor Hovland is the clear favourite, a consequence of a decent showing last week at East Lake in the Tour Championship (he closed with a 65 and was the fourth low scorer), victory in his last regular European Tour start (in June’s BMW International Open at GC Eichenried), finishing T11th on his only course appearance two years ago, and the simple fact of him being rather good. He’s as short as 7/1 in places and that’s too skinny for me.
I’m also wary of the defending champion Tyrrell Hatton at 14/1 (he’s played very little golf this summer and it’s not always been convincing) and Shane Lowry at 16/1. The latter has often been double that and more, a price we’d all snap up. It’s entirely understandable, of course, that the compilers are wary of him, with eight top-15 finishes to his name, but he’s found a way not to win too many times to be backed at that price with confidence.
Tommy Fleetwood has one top 10 (tied sixth in 2015) in nine visits which puts me off at 20/1 and I’m also happy to steer clear of Matt Fitzpatrick at similar quotes. At first glance his record looks solid enough: five starts, three top-12 finishes. But none of them are top sixes and he’s never been closer than six back with 18 holes to play. Three Sunday rounds in the 60s have boosted a log book that also includes five weekend laps that have needed at least 73 blows.
The first of the shorter prices that tempts is Alex Noren. He’s got a fine course record, with a win and third on defence. He’s also fresh off three decent performances in the Olympics and FedExCup Playoffs. But ultimately, 25/1 feels about right rather than offering any value.
Instead, the first three picks are all players with decent form, strong course pedigree, and a price that has juice on the bone.
South African pair make plenty of appeal
First up is South Africa’s CHRISTIAAN BEZUIDENHOUT and key to his appeal is just how brilliantly he scrambles around the greens. Of recent winners on the West Course, Luke Donald in 2012, Ben An in 2015, Francesco Molinari in 2018 and Tyrrell Hatton in 2020 all led that category. Noren, in 2017, was fourth and Danny Willett in 2019 was eighth. With the potential for a bit of fieriness in the fairways and greens, a sharp short game might be even more valuable than usual and Bezuidenhout has that in spades.
Moreover, he’s proved it on the course, ranking second when he was tied third in 2019. To be fair, he was also first for Greens in Regulation so he wasn’t relentlessly tested around the putting surfaces, but he ranks second for Strokes Gained Around the Greens on the PGA Tour, was first for Scrambling on the 2020 European Tour and also 10th in 2019 (he won at Valderrama that year – another tree-lined course that needs a decent short game).
The clincher is that he arrives in a chipper mood. Since he finished T40th here last year he’s played four rounds in every single start and, bar back-to-back victories in South Africa at the end of last year, his best finish was last week when tied third in the Korn Ferry Tour Championship, a result that confirmed his PGA Tour card for the next 12 months.
I also like the chances of Bezuidenhout’s fellow South African BRANDEN GRACE. The 33-year-old had got himself in a bit of a hole with his form on the PGA Tour ahead of the start of this year, but he bounced back in style when winning the Puerto Rico Open. Come the summer he was involved at the top of the leaderboard in the PGA Championship, the Memorial Tournament and the US Open. And just a month ago he closed 64-66 to join the six-man play-off at the Wyndham Championship. Sedgefield is set up for low scoring, but the fact he enjoyed that tree-lined, traditional, undulating test appeals this week.
And so, too, does his course form. He’s finished T11th or better four times, with ninth in 2017 and tied fifth in both 2012 and 2018 his best efforts. “It’s one of those events that I grew up watching as a junior, amateur, even as a pro,” he said in 2017. “There's some great names on the trophy and I would like to be part of that history.” A year later he added: “I’ll normally play well around this place. I like it. I think it suits my eye pretty good.” He’s got a win and a play-off loss behind him this year and can now take aim at a 10th victory on the European Tour. Most important for us, the price is good.
Class act Stenson rates big value
Ben might not be around to preview this week, but he did drop a hint about pick number three on Twitter – we both like HENRIK STENSON. On the one hand, I’ll keep it simple: when do you get a chance to back a major champion (and multiple rankings winner) with excellent course and current form at 45/1?
He had his initial problem at European Tour HQ, but he was in the top 10 all week when tied seventh in 2014, in the top five all week when tied third in 2017, and third after 36 holes when on his way to T17th in 2019. Not a bad last three starts.
Ditto his recent form: top four all week when tied fourth at the Czech Masters, recovered from a slow start in Crans to shoot a 64 and a 63 on his way to tied third, then the first round leader last week in Italy before finishing T15th and allowing us to grab a bit of value.
Oh yeah, Ben has also discovered that old-time Stenson partner Gareth Lord returns to the bag this week. That settles the issue.
Ben will also be smiling that I complete the team with SAM HORSFIELD. He didn’t play well at Crans, but it’s never struck me as his kind of place – too fiddly. I prefer that he was tied sixth at Celtic Manor in late July, spent much of the Czech Masters in the top 10, and had only one poor round last week when T23rd in Italy. He’s also played some nice golf within the trees in recent times: winning at Forest of Arden last summer, a pair of top 10s in Kenya, tied fifth at Eichenried in June.
Then there’s his course record which is a little better than it first looks. He was in the top four through the first 54 holes on debut in 2018 before finishing T18th and he scrambled well (10th) when T31st in 2019.
I happened to chat to him during that promising debut and there was little hiding the fact he enjoyed the challenge, saying: “The golf course is really good for me and I like the way it is. I said to my caddie on the back nine that you can get it going, that you can make birdies out here.” Then, after playing the third round with Rory McIlroy, he added: “It’s probably the most comfortable I've felt on the golf course.” Reviving those vibes is not beyond him at all.
Posted at 2225 BST on 06/09/21
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