Golf betting tips: Preview and best bets for Omega European Masters
Ben Coley hit the crossbar with a 66/1 selection last week and now has a range of fancies for the Omega European Masters.
Golf betting tips: Omega European Masters
1.5pts e.w. Andy Sullivan at 40/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1.5pts e.w. Justin Harding at 40/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Richie Ramsay at 50/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Jamie Donaldson at 60/1 (Betfred, Boylesports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Mike Lorenzo-Vera at 66/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Jacques Kruyswijk at 66/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Shubhankar Sharma at 125/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
A dramatic finish to the Czech Masters provided the perfect (well, almost...) appetiser to what may well be the best run of the European Tour season, one which sees field strengths increase on a weekly basis in time for Wentworth, a fortnight after which comes the Ryder Cup, before an afterparty with the celebs in Scotland.
The next three tournaments are of particular importance to a small group of players who believe that a Ryder Cup place remains within reach, while for others there are Race to Dubai points which become ever more precious with just 10 events left on the schedule. For those battling to keep their cards, perhaps five or six appearances from now to Valderrama will be the maximum expectation, and the time is now.
Bernd Wiesberger falls into the former category and is a worthy favourite for the Omega European Masters, partly because he's an eight-time European Tour winner with a decent record here, and partly because Sam Horsfield doesn't appear to be a perfect fit. Crans-sur-Sierre, complete with spectacular views of the Swiss Alps, affords players like Horsfield plenty of opportunities to take on risk in the hope of reward, but so often they come unstuck.
The slightly more subtle approach of Wiesberger, who is up there with Horsfield towards the top of the strokes-gained approach statistics for 2021, makes him a more likely winner. And having felt he was dramatically overpriced at the Cazoo Classic, where he putted poorly through the middle of the tournament and finished 21st, he wouldn't have needed to be much bigger in this better field to have been given another chance.
But while the Austrian is focused, happy to talk up the state of his game, he's yet to contend in seven previous starts here, only sneaking into the top 10 back in 2013, and more recently has struggled. Course form is far from everything and this is the first time he's arrived as the man to beat, but there's neither enough in his favour nor in the price to warrant inclusion.
By contrast, I am quite drawn to ANDY SULLIVAN despite the fact that, on the face of it, his efforts here at Crans amount to even less than Wiesberger's. He's missed the cut three times in four and finished a never-threatening 30th on the other occasion, enough for some to dismiss him quickly.
Dig deeper though and Sullivan has shot 65, a score Wiesberger is yet to manage, along with a couple of 66s and 67s, typically undone by one bad round or even run of holes. All three missed cuts came bang on the number, that is to say by a single stroke, so his record here could look very different with very little change to his performances.
The altitude isn't a problem, because he's won twice at significant elevation in South Africa, and as an accurate driver whose wedges are usually a strength, he looks a good course fit. Granted, he's not quite Luke Donald, Brett Rumford or Thomas Bjorn when it comes to wedges and putting, but he's broadly similar to two-time champion Matt Fitzpatrick in the way he goes about things and is best when power isn't a prerequisite.
Strong form at Valderrama (16-18-13-MC) and Saujana (17-7) definitely ties in neatly, former Crans winner David Lipsky having gone achingly close at the latter and various champions thriving at the former, and for all these reasons I'm happy to persevere with the idea that Sullivan can and one day will put four rounds together here in Switzerland.
There's nothing like a modest course record to prop up a price, and there is a big plus to set against whatever concerns remain: the way he played last time. Sullivan was 13th in the Cazoo Classic, despite sitting 101st after round one, and played the final three rounds better than all bar four players in the field.
Powering that move up the leaderboard were his best approach figures since the season-opening tournament in Abu Dhabi — significant, for the 2020 leader in strokes-gained approach — and his best driving stats for almost a year, so it would've only taken a moderate putting week to have him asking questions of Calum Hill.
With doubts around so many at the top of the market, which is strong on paper but perhaps vulnerable on closer inspection, the 33 and 40/1 quotes look excellent value and he's well worth a bet.
All jokes aside regarding Horsfield, you really might not get too many opportunities to back him at 33/1 in a field like this. For that reason he is worth considering and there are tap-in birdies to be had at holes like the fifth, sixth and seventh, all of them driveable for the particularly adventurous, as well as three par-fives he can get to in two.
My suspicion is he'll make too many mistakes, such as the one on Sunday which came when he still had a realistic chance to win despite an abject putting display. Keep him in mind for the BMW PGA Championship, where he's contended before, and where we may yet get an even bigger price if he does oblige and run up some big numbers here. And never mention his name again if he wins.
High hopes for Harding
That digression aside, JUSTIN HARDING appears a far better fit and is preferred to Kalle Samooja at the prices.
Samooja missed a short putt to extend the play-off here in 2019, having fallen in love with the place on debut. He'd have been hard to fancy at the time, as an out-of-form world number 300, but there was a clue courtesy of third and sixth place in Kenya, one of the best places to look for them, and he should go well again.
However at 33 years old and yet to win on the European Tour, it's hard to believe quotes of 40/1 are value given the likes of Martin Kaymer, Francesco Molinari and former European Masters champion Danny Willett are around the same mark, whereas Harding has earned his stripes and arrives with an even stronger book of form to his name.
The difference between the two is that Harding is a Crans debutant, but he should absolutely love the place having bettered a previous runner-up finish with his second European Tour title at Karen in Nairobi earlier this year, and almost doubled up at the same course a week later.
At the halfway point in the first event, Scott Hend shared the lead with Samooja, and between them they've three play-off defeats in Switzerland. Go back to the 2019 European Masters and the surprise winner was Sebastian Soderberg, who won at Karen in 2016. Lorenzo Gagli, whose Kenya Open win came next door at Muthaiga, was also in that play-off and Adri Arnaus, runner-up in Kenya during his rookie season, missed it by a shot.
Altitude, fairways lined with trees and a succession of par-fours which can be driven but can also result in big numbers tie these courses together, and so often you see either a steady, accurate player benefit from 15 or 16 birdie chances per round, or an elite scrambler get by on getting up and down. Birdies at these courses can be collected by a chip and a putt, rather than a dialled-in approach shot from range, and set them apart from most.
For my money, Harding has the best short-game among the big names in this field, and this tournament has been won by some of the best short-games in European Tour history. Ask veterans on the circuit whose wedge game they most admire and there's a good chance you hear those names Donald, Rumford or Bjorn. Alex Noren, Miguel Angel Jimenez and Sergio Garcia are all magicians with loft in hand, too.
Harding's form is excellent, with three top-seven finishes in his last six starts, during which he's lost a play-off and also managed to bag his second-best major finish when 19th in the Open. He really does appear to be playing some of the best golf of his life and while four weeks away might not be ideal, he was third in the British Masters last summer on his first start since March.
Also third on his first look at Valderrama almost exactly a year ago, don't be surprised if he quickly works out what's required at Crans and is able to build another big finish on those wedges of his.
Right up Ramsay's street
At the same sort of price and for largely similar reasons, Guido Migliozzi has to be considered. He gamely held off Harding and Arnaus to win at Karen in 2019 and has done everything but add a third European Tour title this year, while on his sole previous visit to the Swiss Alps he fired an opening 65 and signed off with a round of 66 to hint at better to come.
In fact there's a case to be made for all of the big-name Italians in this field, including the Molinari brothers and scrambling wildman Renato Paratore, but next week's Italian Open at the course which hosts the Ryder Cup is surely the goal and each of them may be content to get some good work done here at what's known to be a relaxed event.
Instead I'll turn to experience, which can count for plenty at this quirky golf course, and side with past champion RICHIE RAMSAY.
He's as obvious as they come given his victory in 2012 and the way he's played this year, but 50/1 for a proven winner at the top of his game and with stacks of good course experience looks very fair — not least because of the recent heroics of his younger compatriots.
At 38, Ramsay didn't grow up competing with Grant Forrest or the even younger Hill but this proud Scotsman will have taken great pleasure from seeing them succeed, as well as extra motivation to keep up with them. When he won here, selected on these pages at 100/1, he'd watched Paul Lawrie do the business at Gleneagles a week earlier, and before this event also revealed that he'd been inspired by a chat with Rory McIlroy, who had collected two majors that summer.
Don't be at all surprised if the avuncular Ramsay steps it up with the Saltire flying high again in the Women's British Open, which he'd have watched with interest, and coupled with ninth place last time out that means the timing of this return to Switzerland is perfect. Seven of the last 11 winners here, including Ramsay himself and shock winner Soderberg, arrived on a top-10 finish, and most were in demonstrably good form.
It's also worth noting that as well as dominating over the weekend, shooting 64-66 to win by four, Ramsay fired a blistering 62 to lead in 2014 and remained in front at halfway, he closed with another 64 for 30th in 2017, and played plenty of good stuff on his last visit. Twice he's led the field in greens — champions here do that more often than at most courses on the circuit — and his love for Crans ties in with his love for Valderrama.
Earlier this year, Ramsay came out of the woodwork to contend at Karen on his first visit. His game is in much better shape now, with two top-10s and nothing worse than 28th since the beginning of July, and everything has fired at some point. The key to getting all departments right at the same time may be the right course, and this is the right course.
JAMIE DONALDSON is no less obvious and though I'd have preferred him to keep quiet during the Cazoo Classic, an outstanding closing 54 holes there at least means he returns to Crans Montana with a spring in his step.
The Welshman has been a persistent feature on leaderboards since last summer, his accuracy off the tee, quality approach play and generally excellent putting keeping him competitive in a power-first sport. All of those came to the party last time and improved driving was the final piece of the jigsaw.
If he remains as effective off the tee at Crans, where all three top-10s came from being right in the mix rather than a low Sunday, he could well tie things up nicely at a course where he finished 13th on a sponsor's invite precisely 20 years ago.
Like Ramsay, he's often hit the ball really well here, ranking inside the top 12 in greens hit four times in total. Granted, strokes-gained figures aren't available (those from 2019 are not massively reliable, either) but so small are the greens here, that if you hit one you generally have a birdie chance. It's been important to be right towards the top of the tree, so the fact that he ranked eighth last time and is inside the top 25 per cent on Tour is encouraging.
Dynamite on and around the greens, so effective is Donaldson here that he played really well for three of the four rounds back in 2019, when 542nd in the world, and he's come a long way since. All of his notable performances in the event came after a recent high finish and he's set for another if picking up where he left off in Kent.
The shortlist for this simply has to be long, and includes 250/1 shots Hend and Oli Fisher. The latter is a deadly putter with some really low rounds at the course, and he played better in Prague. Others include Marcus Kinhult, 10th and 12th from three appearances and another with a brilliant short-game, and the enigmatic but capable Victor Dubuisson.
Indeed should the part-time golfer, part-time fisherman deign to stick around and settle for a hook-a-duck at one of the amusement stalls, he could be part of a good French challenge which includes Ryder Cup hopeful Victor Perez and course specialist MIKE LORENZO-VERA.
Perez has correlating form at Fanling and only narrowly missed the cut on his first go here, but Lorenzo-Vera is preferred owing to a quite brilliant record at the course, one which has seen him average 5.5 birdies per round having played 24 of them.
All told he's made the cut on every one of his six visits, twice leading after round one, and has only once finished outside the top 20. That was when he started slowly with a pair of 70s and then climbed to 30th with a 66-69 weekend.
His scoring average of 67.88 is the best of anyone in this field who has played in the tournament three or more times over the last 15 years, and remains first when adjusted for difficulty. The only other player here who breaks 68 on more than one appearance is Gavin Green, and only a handful come in at something less than 69.
All of this is basically in the form book, but the price holds up because his play so far this year looks poor. Lorenzo-Vera has zero top-10 finishes since the Golf in Dubai Championship last December and languishes in 153rd place on the Race to Dubai, which he'll need to improve on over the next couple of months if he's to retain his full playing rights.
However, there have been signs of improvement lately which while hidden in his results, are clear if you look closer. Essentially, a player famed for his putting, and who has built his success at Crans on the flat stick, has not been making his share, and therefore unable to capitalise on a sustained run of quality iron play.
The hope therefore is that a return to these unique, small, bumpy greens is enough to spark a return to what he does best, and if we combine that with a long-game which is way better than the form book suggests, it would be a surprise were he not bang in the mix. After all, his last two visits here have seen him make 51 birdies and an eagle in 144 holes, and his form at correlating courses is also strong.
Fabrizio Zanotti is hitting his irons to an extremely high standard and could make that pay in Italy or even at Wentworth, but the veteran has lost his touch on and around the greens and that's hard to overcome at Crans. It's also why Connor Syme has to be overlooked despite a second-round 66 on his first try here.
I'll finish instead with SHUBHANKAR SHARMA, another in-form player with the right tools for the course, and JACQUES KRUYSWIJK, who might just be the wrong price.
Look through Sharma's record and you can't fail to notice that virtually every piece of worthwhile form comes at a tree-lined course with some similarities to this one. That's true of Saujana and Joburg, the two at which he's won, latterly at altitude, and it's also true of Turkey and Italy where he bagged two valuable T7s in 2019.
His best efforts on the PGA Tour have been ninth in Mexico, also at altitude, along with 20th at Colonial and 10th in the CIMB Classic at Kuala Lumpur. And as well as having been sixth and 10th at Hong Kong, where Hend and Fitzpatrick and Willett and Alex Bjork and Wade Ormsby help draw ties to Crans, he's been 17th at Wentworth in better company.
That's why Crans should suit, and he was in abysmal form when missing the cut here in 2018 yet still managed a second-round 69. Three years on and with form figures reading 32-30-16-9, he's much better prepared and I like the fact he's started to drive the ball better, having been hitting quality approach shots for a while now.
His chipping and putting is more of a worry, the former more so than the latter which comes and goes, but at three-figure prices that's a chance worth taking given his winning credentials, potential, and course suitability.
Kruyswijk has the latter to answer, but his missed cuts here in 2018 and 2019 are worthless as a guide to his chances. This young South African has returned a totally transformed player in 2021, adding subtlety to a power-packed game, and needs judging anew.
While I do worry about the course, Hend and Lucas Bjerregaard are among those who've overpowered it along with McIlroy, and 66/1 is a big price for a player whose form on the European Tour reads 5-5-7-25-17-10-11-7 so far this season.
Perhaps unsurprisingly given those figures, Kruyswijk leads the circuit in strokes-gained total and from 25-28/1 last week, surely a revised price for the strength of this field should be in the 40/1 region. I simply do not believe the market has properly caught up with his rate of improvement.
Crucially, his short-game has been very good in all bar one of these eight starts and he's capable of a far better putting performance than that which he produced in Prague. Yes, that course was probably more suitable on paper, but his back-to-back top-fives at Karen have won me over.
From Pretoria, which is around 1300m above sea level, adjusting to the altitude shouldn't be an issue and it may prove a mistake to assume that he'll be caught out at a very different course. He could just be a lot better than that and unlike last week, concerns around how he closes are compensated by a big price.
Posted at 1900 BST on 23/08/21
Click here for Ben Coley's tipping record
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.