Golf betting tips: Preview and best bets for final round of the RBC Canadian Open
Golf expert Martin Mathews looks ahead to the final round of the RBC Canadian Open and he's not straying far from the top of the leaderboard.
Golf betting tips: RBC Canadian Open final round
3pts win Rory McIlroy to win RBC Canadian Open at 13/8 (Coral)
1pt e.w. Sam Burns to win RBC Canadian Open at 13/2 (General 1/5 1,2,3)
While the golfing world's eyes have been distracted this week by, what in the end turned in to a glorified Sunshine Tour event (to be fair there must have been one hell of a party in Hemel Hempsted’s local South African bar last night), whisper quietly but there has been a fantastic golf tournament developing on the PGA Tour.
The RBC Canadian Open has come at a perfect time this week as a reminder that 72 holes with a cut line and a moving day, all on a great golf course, really is the best format of the game.
Add in a great leaderboard and a chance to play for a trophy, which was first awarded in 1904 and while Charl Schwartzel will be spending Sunday deciding how to invest his $4 million or so, we look set to be treated to a fantastic finish from a fantastic cast.
Sharing the lead on 11-under and taking a two shot advantage and centre stage heading in to the final day are RORY McILROY and Tony Finau and, nailing my colours to the mast early on, it is the defending champion here McIlroy that I will side with to get the job done.
The Northern Irishman it goes without saying has proved a tough player to follow over the past 18 months or so as although he has posted two wins since the start of 2021, numerous opportunities have slipped by, which have seen him regularly cut a frustrated figure.
When the four-time major champion does click though he is undoubtedly a joy to watch and with his long game starting to really fire on Saturday in his best effort of the week so far a 65, he looks to be in the mood to pounce again.
Granted it wasn’t flawless from McIlroy on Saturday, there was still the odd lapse of concentration, such as on 17 where he followed a sublime 350 yard drive down the middle with a pulled iron from 120yds out, which saw him have to scramble for par, however he gained over 3.5 shots from tee to green on the day so clearly he is doing plenty right.
McIlroy of course has plenty of experience in this position and while his 54-hole lead/co-lead conversion record of eight from 14 is not spectacular it is strong enough.
One of those eight wins came when he co led at nearby Hamilton in this event in 2019 heading in to Sunday and on that occasion he put on the afterburners to shoot a majestic 61 to take the trophy.
McIlroy then clearly loves Canada, and judging by the support he has got on the course this week Canada loves him and him and I am happy to take him on Sunday at the odds on offer to defend his trophy in style.
While McIlroy’s 54-hole leader record is solid, Finau, who shares the lead along side him, has struggled in this situation to date with a zero from four conversion rate.
The likeable 32-year-old did finally get the monkey off his back of that elusive second PGA Tour title at the Northern Trust at the end of last season, however instead of playing since then like a man released from the pressure, he has largely struggled this season with no top tens until his second place in Mexico a few weeks back.
Clearly something has reignited now though as after a fourth place at Colonial last time out a best of the week 62 on Saturday has put him in pole position here. As we know though following up one great round with another is tough and with plenty of question marks around his ability to close out in this position still he is not for me.
With even mother nature smiling on Jay Monahan in Canada this week the players will tee off in three balls today after some potential poor weather overnight, meaning that the final group dream trio for the tour will be completed by Justin Thomas who starts two behind on 9-under.
Thomas like Finau had started slowly this week however a Saturday 63 vaulted him in to contention. The PGA Champion ranks second for the week from tee to green and infused with confidence he is clearly a huge threat today. Ultimately though my hunch is that this will be McIlroy’s day and I suspect JT may just have his eye on next week’s trip to Brookline.
If the thought of McIlroy, Thomas and Finau battling out isn’t enough the penultimate group includes one of the players of the season to date SAM BURNS, who along with his playing partners Wyndham Clark and Alex Smalley will all start on 9-under.
Fresh from his win at Colonial last time out Burns has flourished at a venue that with its five par three’s has strong similarities to the Copperhead track, home of the Valspar, where he is a two-time champion.
Like the others at the top of the pile, Burns’ strength this week has been from tee to green ranking seventh in this area and third in approach play and a fourth win of the season certainly cant be ruled out today. Burns appears to have the winning knack right now and with three each way places on offer I am happy to play him alongside McIlroy.
It is often the case that the week before a major throws up a big-priced shock winner and on this basis a maiden title for Clark or even a triumph for Smalley could just happen. Both though it should be said looked edgy at times on Saturday and I am just having a hard time picturing all of the big four stalling to open the door for one of them.
With a further gap then back to 7-under from the penultimate three ball it does look to me to be in the hands of the top six players and I will take my chances on McIlroy and Burns on what should be a pulsating day's viewing.
Published at 1052 BST on 12/06/22
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