Golf betting tips: Preview and best bets for Alfred Dunhill Links Championship
Ben Coley has six selections for the Dunhill Links Championship as three Europeans try to overcome the worst of hangovers.
Golf betting tips: Alfred Dunhill Links Championship
2pts e.w. Branden Grace at 28/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1.5pts e.w. Robert MacIntyre at 40/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. Thomas Detry at 40/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. John Catlin at 90/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Wilco Nienaber at 200/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. David Law at 250/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
In some ways the timing of the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship is terrible. In others, it is perfect. It would be strange and unsatisfying to transition from Ryder Cup to stock European Tour event which features none of its stars, but thanks to a hefty purse and the Old Course, this one always attracts a few. On the other hand we're now without Tony Finau, content to bask in the glory of a USA win, and the Europeans who do arrive on the plane from Wisconsin will do well to dust themselves down and go again.
Twice in the past 20 years, a Ryder Cup player has gone on to win this title. It happened in 2002 thanks to Padraig Harrington, and in 2010 when Martin Kaymer extended his golden autumn through to Sunday at the Old Course. It should've happened in 2018, too, when a weary Tyrrell Hatton came home in 40 to miss out by a shot, and all four players who travelled from France to Scotland finished inside the top 10. That number includes two Americans, despite a resounding defeat in Paris.
All of this is quite encouraging if you're tempted to give one of the three European team members a chance, and there are other examples (Bernhard Langer in 1991, Tiger Woods in 2006, Lee Westwood in 2008, Rory McIlroy in 2014) of Ryder Cup players either winning or nearly winning the very next week. However it's surely best to judge each situation on its merits, and despite taking three of the top four positions in the market, Hatton, Tommy Fleetwood and favourite Shane Lowry have plenty to overcome.
Most of the examples given, and more besides, are of players who had either won the Ryder Cup (Kaymer, Harrington), faced a short journey (Woods, McIlroy), or both. Westwood almost overcame the long trip to the Belfry and Langer somehow won in Germany, but there's been a notable downturn in performances of long-travelling Europeans in 2004, 2008, 2012, and 2016. The Ryder Cup is exhausting enough as it is. Throw in a transatlantic flight and then long rounds in the company of amateurs, days after a record defeat, and this may be beyond all three.
Then we have the weather. It would be an understatement to describe it as changeable on the east coast of Scotland at this time of year, but as things stand there's a chance that the early part of the tournament is played in the rain, and that's far from the biggest issue. As of now, Friday's forecast calls for gusts in excess of 40 miles per hour. Anyone stuck on the wrong course at the wrong time might be in serious trouble.
This could yet work in favour of the big names, who usually begin their three-course rotation at the fearsome Carnoustie, but it's very difficult to know exactly where you don't want to be when the worst of the weather comes. Perhaps Kingsbarns, typically a pushover when conditions are set fair, would in fact be the wrong course. Perhaps the Old Course would show that she's not quite finished asking questions of the game's elite just yet.
MacIntyre can fly the flag for Scotland
Easier to plan for is the likelihood that a number of genuine links specialists fare well. Conditions appear to increase that prospect quite considerably and even when close to benign, a links skill set has been hugely beneficial in a tournament which visits three links courses. Open champions Harrington and Paul Lawrie won three of the first six editions and those from Britain, Ireland and Scandinavia have fared particularly well.
That's why I'm hopeful ROBERT MACINTYRE might provide a timely boost to the European Tour and he rates a decent bet at the price.
It's been a strange and ultimately disappointing season for the 25-year-old, who has generated a real buzz since an outstanding rookie campaign in 2019, and took the logical next step up the ladder with a breakthrough win in Cyprus last year. This one began with a big performance in Dubai and it's not surprising that he was anointed Ryder Cup star in the making with many months of qualifying still to go.
That is not his fault, even if it's effectively his doing, and MacIntyre remains a player of big potential and with the attitude to go a very long way. He showed it when clawing his way from the cut line to eighth place in the Open, a continuation of a really bright start to his career in majors, and now free from the pressure of meeting those Ryder Cup expectations it would not surprise me were he to finish the year in style.
We know that these conditions are set to be ideal, not because he's Scottish, but because he was sixth in the rain and wind of Portrush, and eighth at Royal St George's. Away from the Open he's been 14th and 18th at The Renaissance, links-like if not the truest definition of the term, and in that rookie campaign he was second both at Himmerland and by the sea at Hillside.
At 54th in the world this is a golden opportunity to take an important step towards next year's biggest events (although he's already in the Masters and the Open) and before all that, he has much to play for in the Race to Dubai from a current perch of 17th.
Refreshed following some time at home in Oban, where according to reports he was back playing his beloved shinty last week, I hope we can draw a line under a disappointing attempt at Korn Ferry Tour Finals, and a missed cut at Wentworth where he knew it was win or bust in terms of achieving that long-held Ryder Cup ambition.
No doubt watching on at the weekend and desperate now to take the required steps to be part of the redemption bid in Rome, this looks a great tournament in which to return, and 26th place on debut two years ago is a nice platform. With those at the front of the market seemingly vulnerable, he looks one of the best of the rest.
At a similar price I also want to have in-form THOMAS DETRY on side in the hope that he can follow the lead of Hatton, Victor Perez, Oliver Wilson and Stephen Gallacher and make St Andrews the scene of his breakthrough European Tour win.
Detry is without doubt one of the best established maidens on the circuit, up there with Laurie Canter, Matthias Schwab, Adri Arnaus and a few others, and his form in 2021 suggests we may not have to wait much longer for everything to fall into place.
Granted, he was a bit disappointing in the mix at the KLM Open last time, where he finished fourth, but I thought he was extremely unfortunate in the Scottish Open back in July. Detry was leading and putting for par when the horn blew to suspend play during his back-stroke, which led to a bogey he had to stew on. After doggedly sticking to the task upon resumption, he then lost out in a play-off to a birdie from Min Woo Lee.
Both of these performances are potentially useful form guides, one taking place in East Lothian and the other on a Kyle Phillips (responsible for Kingsbarns) design in the Netherlands which was very much links-like in nature. Detry certainly has all the tools for all three courses and the missing piece of the jigsaw could well be the improvements he's made with the putter of late.
Tough conditions might not be absolutely ideal but he does have enough form in the wind and his record in this event, MC-48-23, is nicely progressive. Last time we saw him here, the Belgian shot 63 at Kingsbarns and 69 at Carnoustie, undone by a slow start at St Andrews which was put behind him with a bogey-free 68 to finish.
He's a better player now at 72nd in the world and while one to be wary of at very short prices, 40/1 looks well worth taking given the strength of his form throughout summer and autumn.
Can amazing Grace do it again?
There must be doubts around Sam Horsfield and Sean Crocker given the forecast, likewise Guido Migliozzi and even Thomas Pieters, and the more I look at this market the harder I find it to justify excluding BRANDEN GRACE from the staking plan.
If there's a nagging doubt it's that Grace did drift to something close to his current price for a weaker event last time, but this 14-time winner as a professional has every right to be considered a massive player in an event he won with a record score back in 2012.
Since then he might not have threatened to double-up as Hatton and Harrington have, but he has expanded his links portfolio with the first ever 62 in a major at Birkdale, a play-off defeat in the Scottish Open, and any number of coastal performances which correlate nicely with events like this one.
Two wins in Qatar is one such example, and it's no coincidence at all that his two PGA Tour victories have been earned by the sea. One of those was at a firm, fiery Harbour Town, where Grace relished hitting low, bullet drives, and the other came earlier this year at a blustery Puerto Rico.
He's been runner-up in better company as recently as August and was seventh in the US Open back in June, so it's really a matter of whether we can excuse his three starts prior to 12th place in the KLM Open. Given that his iron play was right back on track last time out, I am happy to do that and hope he putts just a little better than he did there.
This will be an emotional week for the South African, who used to tee it up alongside his late father, Peter, for the team element of the Dunhill Links. He's the type to channel that in the right way, just as he did with an emotional, hard-fought victory earlier this year.
USA all the way part two...
Grace gets the nod ahead of Martin Kaymer, another former champion and one with a fine record at St Andrews in the Open, too. Kaymer continues to threaten to end what's now a seven-year winless run, and he might just be inspired to do so having been part of Harrington's backroom team at Whistling Straits, where he'll have felt powerless to stop the bleeding.
The circumstances are different, but a number of vice captains with the potential to feature again as players have stepped up following a Ryder Cup role, most notably Lee Westwood in 2018. It was just a couple of months after Paris that he landed an emotional victory at Sun City, and it won't surprise me if Kaymer can do something similar, perhaps at Valderrama if not here.
At twice the price though I prefer the look of the man who beat him there last year, JOHN CATLIN.
The American is entitled to bounce around the locker room as one of a handful in the field and it's not beyond him to win for the fourth time in little more than a year, his breakthrough in Spain coming in early September 2020 before he doubled up in Northern Ireland, and then won in Austria in the spring.
All three of these performances demonstrated what Catlin is about: grinding pars and playing defensively when he has to, avoiding taking the cover off the driver unless he needs to, and chipping away while others run up big numbers under largely difficult conditions.
The weather was miserable when he outlasted Max Kieffer in Austria, the rough was thick in Northern Ireland, and Valderrama is Valderrama. It's when faced with challenges like these that the 30-year-old becomes a massive danger, and it's the forecast for the middle part of the Dunhill Links which makes me believe his skills could be particularly useful again.
Catlin finished in a share of 40th in this two years ago, well before he'd established himself on the European Tour, and a seven-under 65 at Kingsbarns offers tangible evidence that he can score at the easiest course on the rotation. The harder ones, now that he's shown what he's all about, might be even more suitable and though we will need this to be tougher than it can be, that's all but guaranteed should we get a bit of wind and rain.
His form looks fine, a narrow missed cut at Wentworth preceded by a string of good efforts, twice contending across his previous four starts, and his methods continue to ensure value given how good a closer he's proven to be.
Were we set for a dry and sunny week, the aforementioned Min Woo Lee would've been hard to ignore. Both of his European Tour wins have come under firm, seaside conditions and he's an enormous talent who threatened to win again a couple of starts back, but I can pass him over with more of a grind expected.
That's also a worry for Tapio Pulkkanen and WILCO NIENABER, but the latter is big enough to chance at 200/1.
Nienaber's talents are there for all to see, his long limbs helping generate extraordinary swing speed which might make him as competitive as Bryson DeChambeau were he taking part in the World Long Drive Championship instead.
Harnessing that will of course be key to his progression and volatility is all but guaranteed regardless, but he's already been close to winning at this level in his native South Africa, and any notion that he's one-dimensional is undermined by a previous sixth place at the aforementioned Valderrama.
Nienaber played in this in 2019 and while missing the cut on the number, it was a hugely eye-catching demonstration of what he can do at Kingsbarns and St Andrews in particular. After shooting 75 at Carnoustie, he went 65-68 across these two easier courses, making 11 birdies and no mistakes, and this despite failing to capitalise fully on the par-fives.
If he can survive Carnoustie, where again he was level for the par-fives, this explosive youngster could deliver fireworks if coping with conditions. Two sizeable 'ifs', yes, but he was outside the world's top 1600 players when last here, is now on the cusp of the top 200, and there are a lot of cheap birdies going here for one who can rip it 350 yards without giving it everything.
That formula worked for Lucas Bjerregaard, both he and compatriot Thorbjorn Olesen known for waywardness off the tee. The same applies to Wilson, who struggles badly with driver but thrived on this more exposed land, and I expect Nienaber to go on the attack whenever he can. At some stage it'll pay off.
Law looks the pick of the outsiders
While Nienaber is a hopeful selection, DAVID LAW is as close to a confident one as you'll get at these odds and perhaps should've topped this preview.
He missed the cut in 2019 alongside the young South African, failing to advance to Sunday's final round by a single shot, but made just four mistakes all week including a costly double-bogey at Carnoustie where he was otherwise blemish-free.
Significantly, this came during a serious lull which followed a win earlier in the season. From May all the way through to December, Law failed to register a single top-30 finish, and his results prior to the Dunhill Links read MC-MC-MC-MC-MC-MC-60-72.
Two years on and having recently told journalist Martin Dempster that he's playing the best golf of his life, Law looks capable of putting home advantage and links experience to use in an event won by Paul Lawrie, Colin Montgomerie and Gallacher in the past.
"I’ve been playing pretty good for a while," said Law, adding: "Over the course of the past three months, I’d say it’s just about as good as I’ve ever played. These are big events and I am definitely feeling comfortable out there in front of a big crowd and a tough course."
As an amateur he won at Troon, West Gailes and Royal Aberdeen, as a professional his Challenge Tour breakthrough came on a heathland course here in his native Scotland, and when last he teed it up on home soil he finished an excellent fourth in the Hero Open at Fairmont St Andrews.
Despite a brief run of missed cuts following that effort, Law's bullishness came before he went on to finish 14th in high-class company at Wentworth, after which he was 38th in the Netherlands despite an abysmal week with the putter.
That club isn't usually a problem and the fact he ranked eighth in strokes-gained approach is really encouraging. The European Tour victory referenced earlier came by the sea in an event with multiple courses in operation and with so much going for him, Law looks a massive price.
Posted at 1730 BST on 27/09/21
Click here for Ben Coley's tipping record
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.