Golf betting tips: Nationwide Children's Hospital Championship preview and best bets
Min Woo Lee can showcase his star qualities and secure his PGA Tour card in this week's Nationwide Children's Hospital Championship.
Golf betting tips: Nationwide Children's Hospital Championship
2pts e.w. Min Woo Lee at 33/1 (bet365 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt e.w. Davis Thompson at 66/1 (Coral, Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Patrick Flavin at 100/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. David Lingmerth at 200/1 (Coral 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Paul Barjon at 200/1 (Coral 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
Golf doesn't get much more competitive than Korn Ferry Tour Finals, and after a sighter in Boise it's time to have a crack at the Nationwide Children's Hospital Championship.
To glance at the market is to be reminded that the DP World Tour does stack up well with this level of competition, with stalwarts Dean Burmester and Thomas Detry battling Taylor Montgomery for favouritism. Equally, it tells us what we all know, which is that the PGA Tour is where most professional golfers really do want to be.
Burmester and Detry just about wrapped things up with their efforts in Idaho and will be PGA Tour players next season, and the value here lies with an even greater talent in MIN WOO LEE, who can be backed at 30/1 generally and 33/1 in a place.
Lee's major performances this year – 14th in the Masters, 27th in the US Open, 21st in the Open – have been of a very high standard and while he's been lacklustre elsewhere, unlike Burmester and Detry that can be explained by his schedule. Playing on invites, he's been chasing a PGA Tour card in high-class events and only once has he dipped below Rolex Series level in Europe.
That to some extent justifies a patchy set of results but he played well for 26th last week, at a quirky golf course where he wasn't able to kick on from an opening 63 but nevertheless got his KFT Finals campaign off to a solid start.
My strong suspicion is that Ohio State University's Scarlet Course will suit far better. This par 71, redesigned by Jack Nicklaus back in 2005, is far more straightforward in nature even if it's no pushover, and it certainly offers something for the big hitter. Andrew Loupe, Grayson Murray and Peter Uihlein have all won here, along with future world number ones Scottie Scheffler and Justin Thomas, and all did so by attacking the course off the tee.
Lee retains star potential, something we saw last summer when he edged out Detry in a Scottish Open play-off, and while his approach play can let him down, he should have plenty of opportunities to pick up cheap birdies here. It's also a tournament his childhood friend Curtis Luck has won and rates a really good chance to confirm himself a PGA Tour member for the season ahead.
If I were Trevor Immelman, I'd also have an eye on both him and Burmester with the Presidents Cup in mind. That might sound silly given the level we're at, but beyond KH Lee and perhaps Ryan Fox there aren't all that many compelling candidates for wild card selection, and the X-factor of a player like Lee is something he should perhaps consider given the way the Aussie has performed at the highest level in 2022.
Regardless, spurred on by mentor Adam Scott's resurgence, I'll be disappointed if Lee can't secure his PGA Tour status with both this course and Victoria National ideal platforms.
Strong driving looks the way to go in Ohio and earns both Vincent Norrman and DAVIS THOMPSON a place on the shortlist, with the latter narrowly preferred.
Thompson bounced back to form with 15th place in the Boise Open last week and again, he wouldn't necessarily be a natural fit for that course. The leader this season in total driving thanks to his blend of power and accuracy, he looks to be cut from a similar cloth to Scheffler and I'd expect Ohio State to suit.
Already from just 20 Korn Ferry Tour starts he has a win and three further top-10 finishes, contending on a couple of other occasions, and it's perhaps significant that his summer breakthrough came a week after he'd contended in Illinois before a poor final round. It was a similar story last Sunday as he fell from sixth to 15th and perhaps he can get back on track very quickly once more.
Norrman was really tempting, the Swede having displayed his significant potential both throughout this Korn Ferry Tour season, and when contending on the DP World Tour a year ago. He was back pounding greens last week and should find this more suitable, but Thompson is the one who has persistently got himself in the mix whereas Norrman, hamstrung by the putter, has generally given himself too much to do.
Brandon Matthews is one of the most powerful golfers on any professional tour and he too rediscovered some form last week. The 28-year-old won in neighbouring Pennsylvania earlier this year and three-figure prices are tempting enough, as they are for Murray, a former winner here who is a big fish at this kind of level having also won on the PGA Tour in the past.
However, I'd rather chance PATRICK FLAVIN, a player who has made noise in Monday qualifiers this year, playing his way into five PGA Tour events and then finishing 10th in the John Deere Classic.
That earned him a start in the Barbasol, which saw him scrape through to the weekend and then climb to 21st place, and I'm surprised he's a bigger price for this. He's only played six tour-level rounds since then, all of them sub-70 without quite lighting things up, and there's no reason to think his form has dipped significantly.
There are several players who also took part in the Barbasol and are shorter odds than they were that week, including Brandon Hagy, whose form since reads MC-MC-MC-WD-MC. Matti Schmid has halved in price from that tournament, too, whereas Flavin has crept out to three-figures after an admittedly low-key effort in Boise.
What I really like, however, is that he's an Illinois boy who went to college here in Ohio, albeit not at Ohio State it should be said. Still, this is something of a home game and on his sole previous start in the Buckeye State, on the Canadian Tour last year, he shot 65-64 over the weekend to finish fifth when not in the best of form.
That was a year ago this week and he's since bagged that PGA Tour top-10 in front of friends and family in Illinois, where he'd also been fifth at this level in 2021, so it's no wonder he approached these events with high hopes, telling the Daily Herald: "I feel great. I'm super confident. I'm ready to take care of business."
Flavin's friend Nick Hardy has an obvious chance here and was tempting at 40/1, but it's the former who appeals as an each-way bet at more than twice the odds.
Finally, there are a couple of courses which appear to throw up strong correlations with this one and that's an avenue I'm keen to explore at big prices.
One of them is TPC Potomac, which hosted the Wells Fargo Championship won by Max Homa back in the spring, and two editions of the Quicken Loans National in 2017 and 2018. Those to have gone close both there and here include Cameron Young, Ryan Armour, Stephan Jaeger and Lanto Griffin, while Curtis Luck won this event a couple of years after taking fifth in Maryland.
Bronson Burgoon, Beau Hossler, Chesson Hadley and Abraham Ancer are others who crop up while there's also a decent connection to TPC Twin Cities, home of the 3M Open, all of which led me to DAVID LINGMERTH.
It's been a frustrating few years for the Swede but there have been signs of life in 2022, first when playing in co-sanctioned events early on in the season, then when making the cut in the US Open after a bright start, and his golf since Brookline has been solid if unspectacular.
Last week's Boise Open bid was over before it really started but he bounced back with a second-round 65, a score only nine players bettered, and when he did something very similar in the Barbasol Championship a couple of years ago he contended on two of his next three starts.
A former winner at Potomac whose sole PGA Tour victory came at a Nicklaus design right here in Ohio, the fact he's been in the mix in the last two editions of the 3M Open also catches the eye, and he does have some decent form at the Scarlet Course to his name having twice finished 14th in this event.
The most recent of those efforts was in 2014 and he was in poor form ahead of two subsequent visits, so with just enough lately to suggest his game is in better shape, he's an interesting outsider at 200/1.
The same goes for PAUL BARJON, who showed up well when third after round one at Potomac back in May having earlier contended for The American Express in California.
Barjon was fourth here last year when leading the field in greens hit so he has positive memories of the course. By contrast, he's now gone MC-73-MC in Boise which renders last week's effort almost irrelevant, as he'd been way down the field there before contending for this title 12 months ago.
Like Lingmerth, he was up there in the 3M Open for a while, eventually finishing 31st, and this huge-hitting Frenchman has definitely got what it takes to both find form out of nowhere, and see things through to the end. Also a 200/1 shot, one of the best drivers in this field is well worth a bet.
Posted at 1655 BST on 22/08/22
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