Golf betting tips: First round two-ball preview and best bets for Hero World Challenge
Ben Coley has a double which pays upwards of 2/1 ahead of Thursday's first round in the Hero World Challenge.
Golf betting tips: Hero World Challenge two-balls
2pts Aaron Rai and Justin Thomas to win their two-balls at 11/5 (Sky Bet, bet365)
Aaron Rai to beat Matthieu Pavon
Both these Europeans have enjoyed breakout PGA Tour seasons, winning the Wyndham and Farmers respectively, but while Rai's success has been recent, Pavon's is starting to feel distant. No doubt he can take great pride in the way he's elevated his game, coping better than many would've expected with the move out to Florida, but since contending for the US Open he's done very little.
The primary reason for siding with Rai, though, is that Pavon has changed coaches. That's surprising, given that we're little more than a year removed from his first professional win, but perhaps the fact that he's now US-based explains why he's left South Africa's Jamie Gough. Mark Blackburn, who had time in his diary following his split from Max Homa, is a well-regarded coach but some sort of bedding-in process seems guaranteed.
While I don't necessarily consider Albany an ideal course for Rai, the fact that he's so reliable is a positive when we're looking to exploit potential weakness in an opponent. A bad day for the Englishman typically isn't that bad, and in these circumstances it could still be enough.
Justin Thomas to beat Keegan Bradley
There are two compelling reasons to side with Thomas at a shade of odds-on as he gets an early opportunity to impress the 2025 Ryder Cup captain, Bradley, who possibly kept him out of the Presidents Cup side a couple of months ago.
One is course form. Thomas's worst finish here is 12th; Bradley's best is 13th. Thomas averages 69.17, Bradley 70.5, and their respective low scores are 64 and 68. On the one occasion they both played in the same renewal, Thomas shot the lower score three times in four rounds, along with a Saturday tie.
The other is sharpness. Bradley hasn't played since the Presidents Cup more than two months ago, whereas Thomas was in action in October at the ZOZO Championship. Even if parenthood has stolen away some practice time, there's no substitute for tournament golf and he has played it more recently; Bradley's last stroke play event was in August.
I do feel that Thomas has reached a price which is on the short side in the outright market, but 4/5 to beat Bradley over 18 holes looks rock solid. Doubling him with Rai pays upwards of 2/1 and is a great way to oppose arguably the two least likely winners of the tournament and on balance seems the sensible option rather than adding Sungjae Im, who I'd give the edge to against Tom Kim without being bullish.
Posted at 1045 GMT on 03/12/24
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