Golf betting tips: First-round three-ball selection for the BMW PGA Championship
Ben Coley looks at a sparse three-balls coupon ahead of the flagship BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth, which begins on Thursday.
Golf betting tips: BMW PGA round one & specials
2pts Julien Brun to win his three-ball at 13/10 (BoyleSports, Betfred, BetVictor)
1pt Shubhankar Sharma to be the top Asian player at 17/2 (Paddy Power)
1pt Masahiro Kawamura to be top the top Asian player at 9/1 (bet365)
When we ask readers what they want more of, three-ball selections often crops up. I can understand why and have always preferred them to two-balls and the dreaded tie, which in a three-ball still generates a return. Sadly, outside of majors it seems bookmakers are less and less willing to price up big events fully and that's the case this week despite the magnitude of the BMW PGA Championship.
Plenty of three-balls are on offer including the marquee ones, but after that it's pot luck. Most firms for instance will let you have a go at Hennie du Plessis, Louis de Jager and JC Ritchie, but not the couple of groups who tee off afterwards. There appears no real reason for this, just somebody's whim; there are players of similar ability, even some who are better known, whose matches aren't available.
BetVictor will let you bet on Fabrizio Zanotti's score at the third hole. No firm bar bet365 will let you bet on the same player to win his three-ball against two fit, healthy, established playing partners. Zanotti at 11/10 in the one place you can have it strikes me as a smashing bet against an out-of-sorts Tapio Pulkkanen and Germany's Nicolai von Dellinghausen.
For reasons unclear, you can back JULIEN BRUN to beat Zander Lombard and Joakim Lagergren with bet365, BoyleSports, Betfred, BetVictor and William Hill, all broadly in agreement on price, so with that availability sufficient he's the sole bet for Thursday's play.
Lombard, an erratic powerhouse who has done nothing of note since March, hates it here. Three visits so far have resulted in six rounds, all 72 or worse, and he averages 75 on the dot. It's a course that ought not to suit him and while he has made some encouraging starts lately, to do so here would require something he's never done before.
Lagergren's course record is better, his scoring average 71.30, but he's ended one of his 23 rounds inside the top 10 and is no specialist. Again he's erratic at times and has been lately, losing over 7.5 strokes off the tee in his last four rounds and producing a shocking display in Ireland last week, shooting 76-81 to finish 153rd of 154.
Brun is therefore the form pick, finishing 25th in Prague and 16th in Ireland having returned from a summer break. His trademark quality approach play and tidy short-game have both been where you'd expect and his driving has been better, that club always his point of weakness. He said last week it felt good and the numbers support that idea.
He'll still hit the odd crooked one but I suspect Wentworth is a good course for him and three rounds last year, while unspectacular, give him a platform. His form at the Belfry (8th), K Club (16th), in Kenya (7th) and Dubai (5th) all supports the idea that this tree-lined test will suit and he's one I thought made some appeal in the outright market.
As it is, he's landed in a good three-ball – and one people can actually bet on. Pure chance and worth capitalising on, though remember they're out at 0715 BST.
With a full slate to choose from I'd have been keen on Nathan Kimsey to beat Mikael Lindberg and Jazz Janewattananond. As I've written recently, Jazz is struggling badly off the tee, while Lindberg is a big-hitter who might find this a little too nuanced.
Kimsey's short-game is excellent and while his approach work over the past fortnight hasn't been, he looks a level above his playing partners around this sort of course. Expect him to spend more time in the fairway on his way to a comfortably lower score.
Finally, I liked the look of Masahiro Kawamura. He's in with a badly out of sorts Lukas Nemecz and an improving Freddy Schott, who is dangerous over 18 holes but might struggle around here. Kawamura has an excellent track record and his accuracy can win at the West Course against Schott's raw power.
The four-fold is about a 20/1 shot with bet365 and I'd have been recommending trebles and a four-fold had their full complement of three-balls been matched by one or two others. As it is, Coral and Ladbrokes don't have anything, Unibet have taken a player out of three-balls to generate some head-to-heads, and there's not enough to go at.
Finally, while I've enormous respect for Tom Kim, an obvious title contender, I think he's too short in the top Asian market. As such, small bets on Kawamura and SHUBHANKAR SHARMA are recommended.
Kim could love this place but he was midfield when last seen three weeks ago and didn't hit the ball well, instead relying on his putter in what I thought was a bit of a disappointing effort at East Lake.
The bigger worry though is that he's a course debutant and while similarities to Sedgefield are there to be found, and in general I'd say this is his style of golf, it wouldn't at all shock be were he caught out. Backers at 10/11 are surely going to be in short supply.
Kawamura's three top-20s in succession make him a course specialist and he has two top-10 finishes in his last three starts, hitting fairways and greens in both including at Crans. While this might be a course for Kim, we know full well it is for Kawamura.
Sharma is in similar form, adding a top-10 finish at the Irish Open to an outstanding performance in the Open. He contended here on debut in 2019, made his next two cuts including a fast-finishing ninth, and recovered from a bad start to shoot 68 in round two last year.
Again, Sharma has the tools for Wentworth and is playing really well. With the others in this market having plenty to prove at the course, taking two who love it at 7/1 or bigger apiece against a short-priced favourite looks good business.
Posted at 1030 BST on 13/09/23
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