Golf betting tips: Final-round preview and best bets for the TOUR Championship
Martin Mathews looks ahead to the final round of the TOUR Championship, as the PGA Tour season reaches its conclusion at East Lake.
Golf betting tips: TOUR Championship final round
3pts win Xander Schauffele to win Tour Championship at 2/1 (General)
1pt e.w Billy Horschel to shoot lowest round four score at 33/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
As regular followers of the PGA Tour will know the Tour Championship now operates a unique handicapping system, which sees the player who arrived at East Lake in the lead in the Fedex Cup start the final event on a 10- under total. All of the other 30 participants (or 29 this year following Zalatoris’ withdrawal) are then given a starting score between 10- under and Level based on their top-30 status.
The player who found himself in the box seat coming into this week on the 10- under number was, courtesy of his stellar season, Scottie Scheffler. Like the last two years when Dustin Johnson and Patrick Cantlay triumphed, he has managed to nurse his position through the first three days to maintain his lead heading into Sunday, and he sits on a 19- under total, one clear of his nearest pursuer, his playing partner Xander Schauffele.
Complicating matters this year, though, is that due to bad weather the players failed to complete round three on Saturday meaning when play resumes at 9.45am local time on Sunday Scheffler and Schauffele will still have the best part of six holes to play. The man on 16- under in third place, Sungjae Im, will begin his day with a look from 30ft for birdie on 15.
There is no doubt that after opening up with a great 65 Scheffler has had the look of a man with a target on his back over the past couple of days and, with his putter letting him down again on Saturday, he was only level for the day through his first 12 holes when play was halted, while several other big names were going low.
Similarly, Schauffele, who started Saturday strongly with two early birdies to draw level with the leader, suddenly seemed to realise that with the Texan struggling he had a chance to take the event by the scruff of its neck and from there on in he too started to look edgy. From that point of view, the two leaders may well have welcomed the suspension in play, giving them both a chance to reset overnight.
Allowing for the above and with the likes of McIlroy, Thomas and Rahm all lurking within five of the lead heading into Sunday, and with some third-round holes still to play, it is tempting to look further down the leaderboard for someone to make a charge at juicy odds.
Ultimately, though, the starting handicap is a huge advantage and hard for the chasers to overcome and I expect the front two who started the week in first and third place on the leaderboard to be battling it out down the stretch.
With Scheffler 9- under for the week and Schauffele 12- under in ‘real scoring’ the Californian is clearly playing the better golf, something shown in their respective stats for the week.
Add in his renowned affinity to East Lake and that he has posted two victories recently while it is now over four months since Scheffler’s Augusta triumph, and Schauffele is the obvious play for me today at 2/1.
Away from the battle to lift the Fedex Cup and to wrap things up for our 21/22 PGA season I will turn my attention to Sky Bet’s low-round-four score market and risk Billy Horschel.
Horschel, perhaps under the weight of trying to wrap up a Presidents Cup spot, has lost his way since his win at the Memorial in June and today represents his last chance to show Davis Love III some form.
Horschel, of course, has plenty of ‘previous’ at East Lake having lifted the Fedex Cup when winning the Tour Championship in 2014, while he was also runner-up here in 2018. After closing out his third round with two birdies and a hole-out eagle from the bunker in his final four holes he should start Sunday in good spirits.
With 33/1 and five each-way places on offer let’s take a chance on the Florida Gator in the hope that we can finish off what has been a great season for this column in fine style.
Posted at 1000 BST on 28/08/22
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