Golf betting tips: Final-round preview and best bets for the Thailand Classic
Sundays on the DP World Tour are rarely straightforward, but we might just be safe to focus on the final three-ball in Thailand. Ben Coley looks ahead.
Golf betting tips: Thailand Classic
2pts Kazuki Higa to win his three-ball at 17/10 (Unibet)
1pt treble Higa, MacIntyre & Aphibarnrat at 12/1 (Sky Bet)
Over the past fortnight, it's felt like the final group has been the last place anyone would want to be for the final round of a DP World Tour event, as various title contenders have watched someone sail past.
That should all change on Sunday, where the three-ball is made up not only of three of the most talented players in the field, but a trio who each won in 2022. Bookmakers quote 11/1 and upwards the remainder and there's little temptation to side with any of them, even on a golf course yielding plenty of opportunities.
Thorbjorn Olesen leads by two and a glance at his record from similar positions suggests 11/8 is a good price. Olesen has held eight clear leads through 54 holes and won six times, including each of his last four, so given his Ryder Cup and majors experience, you would think he'll have few troubles bidding for a mid-tier Thailand Classic.
Then again, the same stats tell you his lead has never widened, so backers might expect a bump or two in the road. That's precisely what happened at the British Masters last May when a ragged Olesen looked to have given away a three-shot lead only for two moments of magic across the final two holes to rescue the situation and put an end to a miserable couple of years.
As someone who never thinks stats like these are the be-all and end-all, I do think the way he drove the ball at times offers hope to those taking him on. Olesen missed several tee-shots out to the right midway through his round and was fortunate that the fairway bunker at the par-five 15th still allowed for him to hit three-wood, rendering it a waste of sand.
Then again, that is partly why he, Nicolai Hojgaard and Yannik Paul are where they are: Amata Spring is soft and, providing you avoid water, it offers little in the way of meaningful punishment. Playing from the rough doesn't appear to be a major handicap and some aggressive, prolific birdie-makers have made hay.
Hojgaard failed to avoid water at the par-three eighth, albeit with an element of misfortune involved, but he still managed to storm into a share of second from the wrong side of the draw. Nobody entering the weekend inside the top dozen teed off early on Thursday, so the huge-hitting youngster has done exceptionally well to overcome the handicap.
If he hits the ball as he did over the first three rounds he looks to have a big chance, with success likely to depend on his short-game. It cost him a shot at the driveable 12th, and he missed chances at the 10th and 11th, which is why he felt he ought to have gone lower than 64. Hojgaard is the main danger given his potential to shoot that kind of score again without having to make all that much.
The final member of the group is Yannik Paul, who impressed after an understandable wobble when winning from the front in Mallorca. He can look a bit ungainly but don't let that fool you – the young German hits the ball really well and will have been pleased with the way he clawed his way back into things after a slowish start to round three.
At the prices my preference would be for Hojgaard over Paul and Olesen, but with the former on-side pre-tournament I can't say I'm inclined to top up. It was from a similarly promising position that he fluffed his lines in the Middle East recently and while I put that down to his rawness than any concern as to his ability to close things out, there's no denying that for now his bad days remain destructively so.
Stick rather than twist is therefore the advice but despite all of what I've written here, it's not difficult to make a sound case for Olesen as the three-ball value at 2/1 with BoyleSports for those who can access it.
He was a third of the price of Paul pre-tournament and has been the better player so far, yet they're now virtual equals over 18 holes and Hojgaard, at 6/5, is plenty short. Sky Bet make Olesen a more realistic 13/8 chance and the allowance one firm makes for the pressure a leader has to shoulder looks too much.
Sticking with more general prices, I like KAZUKI HIGA at 6/4 with most firms and 17/10 in a place.
Higa is probably flattered by his world ranking of 79th, but he's more than 150 places above Fabrizio Zanotti and 300 ahead of Alexander Knappe and, having played the best golf of this trio on both Friday and Saturday, he ought to be favourite on Sunday.
This improving Japanese youngster was 13th in better company last week in Oman and made the cut in the Sony Open to begin the year, so it's a little surprising he's not being given more respect.
That Zanotti is a fairways-and-greens type who often putts poorly also means Higa's more aggressive game would appear better suited to a course he's clearly got to grips with quickly.
Knappe is a solid Challenge Tour graduate but Higa is the progressive golfer here and looks a value bet, with Zanotti a vulnerable favourite whether to him or the German.
Others on the radar include ROBERT MACINTYRE, who could catch fire on Sunday, and local hero KIRADECH APHIBARNRAT, who will be desperate to do likewise.
MacIntyre hasn't got anything going since Thursday morning, when he failed to capitalise on a blistering start, but he can at least ensure that he arrives in India next week back on the front foot by outscoring Ashun Wu and Thriston Lawrence, the latter having endured a miserable third round.
So did Aphibarnrat in the end, again coming unstuck at the 14th, but the Thai will be desperate to put on a show and can do that if his putter catches fire. There's little to fear from Martin Simonsen, and Joakim Lagergren is the type of player I don't usually mind taking on as he relies on his putting and is prone to carving one into a nearby hazard.
The same could be said of Aphibarnrat at times but his motivation is strong and he's a prime contender for the lowest Sunday round, although he's around fifth or sixth in Sky Bet's market and probably shouldn't be shorter than a player of MacIntyre's calibre, so preference would have to be for the Scot there.
Both are added to a small-stakes treble but it's all eyes on the later starters. It will be a surprise and a disappointment if the winner isn't one of the final three players to tee-off and, whoever it is, two wins since last February would have them down as another Ryder Cup candidate.
Posted at 1520 GMT on 18/02/23
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