Golf expert Dave Tindall picks out his best final-round bets for the action at Waialae.
Golf betting tips: Sony Open
1pt e.w. Stephan Jaeger at 8/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3)
1pt e.w. Lee Hodges at 18/1 (bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair, Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4)
There has been a feeling all week at this year’s Sony Open that everyone is just jockeying for position. Hints at separation have never materialised and hence the favourite going into the final round is as big as 5/1. That man is J.J. Spaun, who birdied the last for a 65 on ‘Moving Day’ to take a narrow one-shot lead.
Spaun's birdie nudged him ahead of Stephan Jaeger, Eric Cole and Patrick Fishburn. None of that quartet have ever managed a top 10 at Waialae which is interesting while Cole and Fishburn are looking for their first PGA Tour trophy. We haven’t seen a first-time winner in this event for 12 years so that could also be against them.
Every Sony Open winner this century has been inside the top six after 54 holes and 19 of those 25 were actually in the top two so a high position starting the final round here is almost a must. While it’s tempting to take on a leading bunch without much winning experience, history says not.
The other best place to hover the magnifying glass is Strokes Gained: Putting as 12 of the last 15 winners ranked in the top eight for SG: Putting. Spaun is only 34th and although he was strong with the flatstick in round three, he’ll have to keep it just as hot in round four and that won’t be easy.
So, given the significant winning record of those starting day four in the top two here, I'll take what looks a decent 8/1 about STEPHAN JAEGER. The German is 13th for SG: Putting on the week but was actually 3rd in that category when shooting a 62 in round three, the low lap of the tournament so far.
Just three starts ago he was runner-up at the Black Desert Championship in Utah and last March he made the big breakthrough by capturing the Houston Open. That added to six Korn Ferry Tour victories between 2016 and 2021 so he knows how to get his nose in front. Jaeger's last two appearances here have produced his best results: 28th in 2023 and 18th last year so he’s been hinting at making a big noise in the Sony.
It could also be to his advantage if things get tight down the stretch that he’s been performing strongly on Waialae’s inward half (he’s 8-under over the last two rounds).
Spaun said after Saturday’s 62: "I’ve played the back nine pretty well this week I feel like, and I’ve struggled a little bit on the front. Today I felt like I gave myself some nice chances to make some nice putts, nice momentum putts, as well. Obviously made five birdies coming in, which was really nice. Nothing will change; game feels nice, so I’m excited about tomorrow."
Jaeger was tied for the lead when winning the Houston Open last year while he was chasing (four back and three back respectively) when coming through to capture two of his last three Korn Ferry events. When winning events his closing scores include a 63, a 64, a 66 and a 67 so he knows what it’s all about. Take the 8s each-way.
Four of the last five winners at Waialae were either two or three back with 18 to play so that gives us scope to look at the -11s (Keegan Bradley, Harry Hall, Nick Taylor, Nico Echavarria, Brian Harman, Lee Hodges) and the -10s (Lucas Glover, Maverick NcNealy, Ryan Gerard, Gary Woodland, Russell Henley). From that 11-man bunch I’m focusing on the best putters on the week so far.
A fair few books offer four places (1/5 odds) which helps so I’ll try the 18s (he’s 20s elsewhere with three places) about LEE HODGES. The 29-year-old, who sounds like he starred in cowboy movies in the 60s, ranks 1st for SG: Putting so far this week. It’s helped him move up to tied fifth after rounds of 68-64-67.
Hodges says he came to Hawaii rather than wait for the California tournaments as he wants to play his way into the elevated events. He’s certainly going the right way about it so far and the Alabaman is carrying over some confidence from last year having finished it strongly. In October, he was eighth in the Black Desert Championship and 16th at the ZOZO while on his most recent outing, Hodges was fifth at the RSM Classic.
Unlike some of those above him, Hodges has a PGA Tour victory under his belt having absolutely run away with the 3M Open in July 2023 when winning by seven. He’s certainly enjoying his week so far. “It’s a great place. This golf course is amazing. It feels easy but you can quickly become difficult if you’re out of position.” He may have to sharpen up his iron play a little - there were signs of that in round three - but if that putter keeps performing, Hodges could very well add a second Tour title.
Posted at 0950 GMT on 12/01/25
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