Golf betting tips: Final-round preview and best bets for the Mauritius Open
Our golf man is hoping the leaderboard stays at it is in the Mauritius Open, where he's also picked out a Sunday two-ball double.
Golf betting tips: Mauritius Open final round
1pt double Gouveia and Hurley to win their two-balls at 3.35/1 (Sky Bet)
French players have so often threatened in the Mauritius Open and with the tricolore flying high on the leaderboard once more, perhaps one of them will win the event for the first time.
Antoine Rozner came so close to doing so when last it was played, in 2019, only to lose a play-off in one of his first DP World Tour starts. Now a two-time champion with eyes on a Ryder Cup place, he's two shots clear heading into Sunday's final round.
In second and playing alongside him will be Julien Brun, who had a fabulous rookie campaign of his own, one which lacked only silverware. These two have made the fewest mistakes in the field, showcasing their rounded games in a persistent breeze, and having put both of them up pre-tournament, we can have few complaints so far.
Rozner missed a host of short putts in round three, but for which his advantage might have been greater still, and that would be the only real concern when it comes to revised prices of 4/5. That said he'll have taken great heart from the way he recovered from a bogey-bogey start and might win this if he matches his Thursday 70.
Brun capitulated from one behind with a final-round 80 at the European Open back in June, but he took his chances well on the Challenge Tour and is a much more assured putter than Rozner. In what should be a good draw for both, it certainly wouldn't surprise me were he to apply pressure at a course where the advantage Rozner enjoys off the tee isn't perhaps everything.
This is of course no match, with Oliver Bekker three behind the leader and both Sami Valimaki and Pierre Pineau a further shot adrift.
The latter, mentioned as a possible 200/1 option on Monday, would be the worst-case-scenario but that's not the only reason for considering him at 25s. Pineau has a volatile quality but so far it has meant that his big weeks stay big. He'd be the third winner in four events in Africa to be earning full status and can draw encouragement from the exploits of Dan Bradbury and Ockie Strydom, too.
The bottom line is that I'll be disappointed if the winner doesn't come from the final group and with both advised each-way, I'm not especially inclined to start firing off cover shots. Those without a position would be pointed towards Brun as a sporting bet at 4/1 but hopefully a better start sees Rozner go ahead and win, in the process perhaps earning him the final Hero Cup spot.
It's been a welcome change from what's become normal for the players to be sent out in two-balls at the weekend, though that does somewhat limit interest from a betting perspective, and I'll stick to a small double on GARY HURLEY and RICARDO GOUVEIA.
Hurley is another I gave a word to earlier in the week and he's shown himself to be in excellent nick, adding another cheque to the two he picked up from as many starts in South Africa on the back of a successful Q School campaign.
At 30, this former Walker Cup player and top-50 amateur looks to be coming into his own and he's value at 11/8 against an exposed albeit in-form Bryce Easton, who to continue with the racing verbiage has no secrets from the handicapper.
We are without reliable strokes-gained data so bets like these have to rely a little more on feel than would perhaps ideally be the case, but I can't have this as much other than a pick-em between two players with similar world rankings. Siding with the one who is still improving makes sense.
By contrast, we're taking on the player with potential by backing Gouveia but justifiably so. The talented Portuguese really is in the form of his life, set for a fourth top-20 finish in five DP World Tour starts (13 from his previous 100), and it's a shame in many ways it came too late to keep hold of full status for 2023.
Comfortable or rather at his best in the wind, it's no surprise he's played well, underlining ties with Al Mouj in Oman which offers a similar albeit more penal challenge. He's probably too far back to win, but from 11th place ought to have eyes on the top five or so, a goal he can achieve.
Christoffer Bring is a former winner of the European Amateur Championship who did what Gouveia couldn't and earned his card at Qualifying School. It's been nice to get a look at him and there's plenty of potential there, but he's got worse with every round and it's not difficult to see that trend continuing in the wind.
At the very top of the leaderboard we have the players who've done best at avoiding bogeys and Bring has now made a dozen of them, versus seven and a double from Gouveia. The latter has also hit more greens, something that ties together the top three who are similarly ranked in the GIR charts, so the foundations are there for Gouveia to make a forward move as Bring continues to make mistakes.
Odds of 5/6 make for the best single bet on the coupon, but I'm content to advise a small double with my focus, and hopefully that of a good number of Monday readers, very much on the final two-ball.
Posted at 1520 GMT on 17/12/22
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