Golf betting tips: Final-round preview and best bets for the Dunhill Links
Ben Coley has 40/1 and 175/1 selections in the hunt for place money at St Andrews, where Ryan Fox looks the value entering round four.
Golf betting tips: Dunhill Links final round
2pts e.w. Ryan Fox to win the Dunhill Links at 7/1 (Sky Bet, Unibet 1/5 1,2,3)
3pts double Syme and Horschel to win their two-balls at 6/4 (BoyleSports, BetVictor)
Richard Mansell takes a four-shot lead into the final round of the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship as he seeks to emulate Tyrrell Hatton and win his first DP World Tour title at the Old Course.
Sport has a funny way of writing its own stories and after this week's sad demise of the EuroPro Tour, victory for Mansell would be a reminder of what golf in the UK is losing. Just as Hatton did before him, Mansell graduated through that satellite circuit and whatever comes of Sunday's final round, it was a golfing education that helped shape a game which is here to stay.
There's no doubt he'd be a worthy winner. Mansell had to play St Andrews during Friday's wind and rain and that looks like the worst of the draw, albeit the truth is that no course was significantly more playable than any other. Still, his battling effort set him up to pull clear under calm conditions with the round of the day at Carnoustie. That means nobody has outscored him at his course since round one.
His reward for a combination of attitude and ability is a four-shot lead over Daniel Gavins, Ryan Fox and pre-tournament selection Alex Noren, who was clear favourite when joining Mansell in the lead before a poor back-nine at St Andrews. Truth be told, Noren's chances would've increased had Carnoustie been the host course and while his skill set is similar to Open champion Cameron Smith, without significant wind in the forecast we can only be hopeful.
With Tapio Pulkkanen also finishing his round poorly (T8) it was a frustrating Saturday in the end but given the weather this was always a week for hope rather than optimism and two place chances is a nice enough position. Pulkkanen does have the tools to overpower the Old Course, too, and something like a four-under 68 might be enough to secure a full each-way payout.
As for how vulnerable the leader is, I've mixed feelings. On the one hand, this is totally new – he's never held a 54-hole lead nor even a proper 36-hole one, given that this week's stagger didn't unwind until the end of round three. It's new territory in a hugely valuable event for a player who had to sit and suffer on the sidelines during the BMW PGA Championship, his pre-season category not enough to earn a start due to a flaw in the system.
He's making up for that and then some, and there's a chance the Hatton theory applies here. Hatton clearly found some comfort in playing with his amateur partner Jamie Dornan and Mansell might find that he's able to put the magnitude of the occasion to the back of his mind alongside businessman Anthony Wreford.
You'd think that six-hour rounds would intensify things for a front-runner but players with a lead of three or more in this event are eight from nine, the exception being Kennie Ferrie who surrendered a five-stroke advantage in 2005.
Then again, reality could strike at any time and we saw in the Open what can happen at this course. Should Mansell's occasional putting woes return then a repeat of Rory McIlroy's final round is perfectly possible and there's certainly no rush to go steaming in at 10/11.
If Mansell is to be caught, perhaps Rasmus Hojgaard could make up for last week's narrow defeat in the Open de France, where Guido Migliozzi powered through the field before hitting the shot of the season to the 18th green. Hojgaard has won from four and five back and while this time it's seven, meaning he'll certainly need help, he's only three off second place. Odds of 50/1 are short enough but he's an interesting one lurking in the pack.
Of those closer, RYAN FOX is the most appealing and he has to be the selection at 6/1 and bigger.
He's clearly coping just fine having returned from injury last week, when things went against him in France from the moment his clubs were lost in transit. A links specialist with power in his locker, Fox almost stole the Irish Open from five behind having also flirted with the lead in Germany from a similar position, and after a 65 at Kingsbarns he's now a bigger threat than Noren in my eyes.
I wrote when selecting him last week that he has a point to prove to Presidents Cup skipper Trevor Immelman and it still applies, while he's mentioned more than once that he's carrying a little extra motivation as he does his best to honour former playing partner Shane Warne having been paired with the late Aussie cricketer several times.
It would certainly be an emotional one if he can do it and while Mansell is a fair price on what we know, what we don't know is just how he'll manage this big lead on this famous turf. It's a big ask and while Noren and Fox are two of the nicest players on the circuit, that doesn't mean it'll be all smiles and relaxation in the final group.
The very fact they're together as a three-ball because those two are out of the team competition adds an interesting dynamic and not necessarily a good one from Mansell's perspective. Such a draw strengthens my view that adding a second, proven winner to pre-tournament selections makes sense, but there will be no complaints if Mansell does convert. It's been coming.
Best match bets for Sunday
Another quirk of this tournament is that there's always a mixture of two-balls and three-balls on Sunday and, in this case, there's even a group with just one professional.
Despite all I've written above it's a little surprising Mansell is as big as 100/30 for the final three-ball, one of just two players on the coupon priced north of 3/1. The other is Hurly Long, who finds himself in with Tyrrell Hatton and Matt Fitzpatrick and is given a similar chance of beating those two elite players as Mansell is against Fox and Noren, players he's not far behind.
Perhaps that's a little disrespectful to the dominant performance he's so far produced but for the reasons given, I am ultimately prepared to take him on – just not in match bets. The situation does count for a lot but he'd be a 9/4 chance in this on a Thursday, so 100/30 on a Sunday does seem a tad overzealous.
I did consider Oliver Bekker to beat Robert MacIntyre and Dale Whitnell, based on the fact Bekker's performance is better than it looks after one bad hole ruined so much of his good work. It's also possible that MacIntyre's clumsy finish belies an element of fatigue having played six tournaments in a row, winning in Italy and then threatening in France.
However, Bekker has also been on the go throughout this run and Whitnell is an in-form player with a good record here, so I'd rather stick to a double on two-ball favourites CONNOR SYME and BILLY HORSCHEL.
It'll be interesting to see whether promising youngster Christiaan Burke is put off his stride by leading the team event. It might seem a bit of a joke to those of us watching but for anyone involved, there's a trophy to be won at the Home of Golf. It's never going to be small fry and we've seen various experienced players struggle when in the mix for it.
Burke has a bright future and a Thursday 66 at St Andrews shows you just what he can do, but no longer can he freewheel as he could then. A closing birdie resulted in a two-ball with home player Syme, who has played some lovely golf this year and continues to drive the ball to a very high standard. He's a great bet at 8/11 for those willing to back singles at odds-on.
Horschel meanwhile is improving all the time as a links golfer and particularly at St Andrews, despite a sloppy finish to round three. Perhaps there's a Presidents Cup hangover lingering but playing with friend and former West Ham captain Mark Noble, expect him to bounce back as they look for the low final round they'll need to hold any kind of chance.
Sebastian Garcia-Rodriguez is a streaky putter who has a low one in him, but he's one of the weaker ball-strikers on the circuit and has next to no experience in world-class company. I expect it'll tell and that Horschel will beat him by a handful.
Posted at 2000 BST on 01/10/22
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