Golf betting tips: Final-round preview and best bets for the Bermuda Championship
Dave Tindall picks out his best final-round bets for the action at Port Royal Golf Course.
Golf betting tips: Bermuda Championship
1pt e.w. Wes Bryan at 14/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3)
0.5pts e.w. Ryan Moore at 90/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3)
Some seriously low scoring was required on ‘Moving Day’ to secure a place in the top four going into the final round of the Bermuda Championship. New joint-leaders Andrew Novak and Rafael Campos got there courtesy of 9-under 62s while Wes Bryan vaulted 42 places from 46th to solo fourth via a stunning 61 that matched the course record.
Novak and Campos lead the way on 16-under, with halfway pacesetter Justin Lower a shot in arrears after what seemed a modest 68. It’s a further two back to Bryan while Lucas Glover, Troy Merritt and Sam Ryder share tied fifth on 12-under. No less than 15 players are either at 11-under or 10-under but is five and six shots back too many?
Maybe not given the dispersion of scores and low rounds out there. Bryan shot his 61 despite having to battle 30mph+ winds at times so this course can certainly be taken apart if anyone gets on a roll.
Attitude can be vitally important in the wind so I didn’t particularly like this from Lower after his 68: “15, 16, 17, 18, I don't think that's golf if you ask me. But balls were going backwards in the air and I just, I realise that a lot of people had to play in it, but I don't think it's fair if that makes sense.
“I think if a top-10 or top-15 player in the world was here and they wanted to stop, I think the rules officials would have said, ‘Yeah, we'll stop.’ When anyone else in the field, if we would have said ‘I don't feel comfortable playing in this,’ we would have been told ‘tough’ and to proceed with the round. So that's how I feel about it." Hmmm.
It may not quite get as strong as Saturday but the forecast 25mph winds will still prove testing. Add in some tougher pin placements and today’s 61 and 62s will be very hard to replicate.
As bland as it sounds in a birdie-fest, this event has often come to putting so I’d be leaning towards those with strong Putting Average stats. That metric is better news for Lower backers as he remains top of the PA charts. Campos is 3rd and Novak 10th. One of those three is the likely winner but, at the odds, I won’t be backing 9/5 Novak or 10/3 Lower.
Campos is a little more tempting given that he gave an emotional interview on Saturday, talking about the birth of his daughter earlier this week. That “nothing else matters” perspective can be seductive but he might not be so free and easy down the stretch given that he’s playing for his PGA Tour card. I’ll cheer him on but won’t take the 4/1.
There are three each-way places to go at so, looking beyond the three market leaders, I’m going to back a couple of players in the top eight who are high in the putting charts and have the potential to hit back on Sunday after slightly stalling in round three. Four of the five winners of this event didn’t lead with 18 holes to play so that helps justify looking a tad lower down board.
First I'll take the man in fourth place, WES BRYAN. He’s 5th in Putting Average and seemed to relish the gusty conditions. “Yeah, I've been hitting the ball really nice and been hitting it solid and been putting pretty well,” he said on Saturday. “I felt like these type of conditions really for my entire golfing career, I've really enjoyed wind. It just brings out a little bit more creativity, so I do enjoy the wind."
Bryan was sixth in Mexico last week so is perhaps following a similar path to last year’s Bermuda winner Camilo Villegas. The Colombian hadn’t won in nine years but came here off the back of a second place in Mexico and got it done. Bryan hasn’t tasted victory since 2017 so it’s been a long time between drinks for him too.
But boosted by his brother George’s YouTube exploits (George played here but missed the cut), Bryan is really enjoying his golf again. “Oh, I love it. Probably way more now than I ever have. I’m having a blast with it. Going to go out and try to put a good one together tomorrow and maybe creep up that leaderboard right there.” That’s a great attitude to have and at 14/1 I’m happy to play.
For a big each-way price, I’ll try RYAN MOORE at 90/1 with Sky Bet. That’s around his starting price and yet here he is with the opportunity to strike after a strong first three days. Moore needs a low one after slipping five back via a Saturday 70 but he’s posted a 64 and two 65s in his last seven rounds here and last year’s top five helped him secure his playing privileges.
Click here to back Ryan Moore with Sky Bet
He's in the same boat this time with projections only seeing him move up from 152nd to 143rd if he maintains his current position of tied eighth. But he was in the same spot this time last year and saved his card and that must surely give him a leg up and perhaps a head start over those in a similar position around him. Seven players at T8 or better are 120th or higher in the FedEx Cup standings as they seek to secure a spot in the top 125.
Moore is the most accurate driver so far this week which gives him a foundation to attack from and fourth in Putting Average shows he’s been hot on the greens. It’s a bit of a punt given the crowded leaderboard but we’ll be handsomely rewarded if some of those above him stumble and Moore gets himself into the top three.
Preview posted at 0925 GMT on 17/11/24
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