Golf betting tips: Final-round preview and best bets for the Alfred Dunhill Championship
Ben Coley looks ahead to the final round of the Alfred Dunhill Championship at Leopard Creek, where the list of potential winners might still be long.
Golf betting tips: Alfred Dunhill Championship
2pts Wilco Nienaber to win his three-ball at 6/4 (BoyleSports, Paddy Power, Betfair)
2pts Scott Jamieson to win his three-ball at 6/4 (BoyleSports, Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt double Nienaber and Jamieson at 21/4 (BoyleSports, Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt Ross Fisher to win his three-ball at 11/4 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
0.5pt e.w. Ross Fisher at 175/1 (Sky Bet, bet365 1/4 1,2,3)
0.5pt e.w. Wilco Nienaber at 250/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3)
There's something for everyone at the top of the Alfred Dunhill Championship leaderboard, with players from the DP World Tour, Sunshine Tour, PGA Tour and LIV Golf promising to serve up a Sunday treat on Sky Sports.
Already during this three-week run of events in South Africa, we've seen a player transform his career by winning to earn DP World Tour membership, and that's something joint-leader Ockie Strydom will be hoping to achieve. It's a big ask for a player with 16 runner-up finishes to go with one win, all on home soil. That victory came when three clear in a 54-hole event and to fend these off would be a career best by some distance from a player who has been around a while.
So has Scott Jamieson, and it's 10 years to the week since he won his sole title, the Nelson Mandela Championship. That event was a farce, reduced to a 36-hole wedge-and-putt contest which saw him triumph with an unofficial round of 57, and Jamieson might feel that if he doesn't win this, he may never win a proper tournament.
That sounds dramatic, but Leopard Creek is his favourite course and he finds himself tied for the lead with a pre-tournament 200/1 shot who has found winning even harder to achieve.
Two clear of a strong group headed by Dean Burmester, who capitalised on a Jamieson collapse to win the Tshwane Open, the Scot has a huge chance and I actually think he's a very fair price, especially at 4.1 on the exchanges. Yes, he's zero-from-six with the lead or a share of it, but never has he been significantly superior to his main rival, and two of the next three on the leaderboard are maidens at this level.
A fair price, then, but not quite big enough at 5/2 generally to justify a bet. Jamieson thrives here and in South Africa in general and this is far easier than when he faded in a Rolex Series event at the start of the year, but he still has questions to answer and is one of those you have to let win.
His strike-rate is why there was no mad rush to take odds of 33/1 about someone with three top-sixes in his last three starts at Leopard Creek and while I hope he wins and have a sneaky feeling he will, he can do so unsupported.
Burmester is ideally placed to make an early move despite two late mistakes but while vastly improved of late, he's yet to establish himself as a regular winner and can get in his own way from time to time, as we saw when he threw away the Steyn City Championship earlier this year.
The same is true of Oliver Bekker, while neat-and-tidy and generally likeable though Dale Whitnell is, he lacks positive experience in this kind of position. Sealing the deal at a course whose finishing stretch is fearsome feels like a big ask.
My feeling therefore is that this is more open than the market suggests, and while Branden Grace, Dylan Frittelli and Adrian Otaegui are the most likely beneficiaries of any mishaps from the groups behind them, it's not unthinkable that the winner comes from even further back.
We saw Strydom climb 20 places with a Saturday 63 and Leopard Creek, with its soft greens and lack of rough, has proven far easier than anticipated. That said there are still disasters lurking, as ROSS FISHER found out to his cost with a closing triple-bogey, and if 16-under proves a good target then anyone inside the top 20 might still be in this tournament.
Fisher faces a difficult task to bounce back from a mystifying mistake, one of the finest drivers in the field having gone out of bounds off the 18th tee then found water with his fourth. Still, he's among the most likely in the field to pull apart the par-fives and gain some revenge while doing so, and from six behind he's one of those along with Louis Oosthuizen who I could still see making a run at the leaders.
Fisher was runner-up to Ryan Fox at the Ras al Khaimah Classic when beginning the final round eight back in a share of ninth and when last this event was played, Christiaan Bezuidenhout pulled off a seven-shot turnaround, winning by four having trailed by three. Clearly these are different circumstances with nine players to pass, but under much easier conditions I can't resist taking a small slice of the 175/1.
WILCO NIENABER is a further shot back but he's the type to shoot 63 on a good day and that would take him to 17-under, which I feel almost certain would grab some place money.
George Coetzee was eight-under through 10 on Saturday and there have been 10 rounds of 65 or better so far at a course which epitomises the phrase 'risk-reward'.
Nienaber birdied five of his final seven holes and as you might expect has played the par-fives well all week, ranking second only to Frittelli. Already in his burgeoning career he's carded a couple of seven-under final rounds and if he can better that by a shot or two then he won't be far away.
Providing Nienaber can handle the opening hole better it's not that difficult to imagine him making the turn in three-under or so, before those three par-fives await on the back-nine, all of them reachable with a short-iron for the freakishly long hitter who might also be able to have a pop at the 11th if the tee is nudged up slightly.
At 250/1 and with three places on offer, he'll start the day five off third place and seven back of a pair of joint-leaders who have plenty to prove. If Strydom repeats last week's 63-75 and Jamieson shoots something in the 70s, a player like Nienaber might yet be one career-best round from a massive upset.
Best three-ball bets
Nienaber rates the value call against Eddie Pepperell and David Ravetto in their three-ball, too. Both his playing partners will have to bounce back from third-round 73s and now that his chance of winning has taken such a hit, I could see Pepperell being vulnerable in his final competitive round of the year.
The other I really like is in fact SCOTT JAMIESON, who is priced equally with Whitnell based presumably on the fact that Jamieson is under more pressure.
I'm not entirely sure that logic works with both of them in the final group, and having opened up at 33/1 and 80/1 on Monday, I find it a little hard to understand why Whitnell would now be considered Jamieson's equal – especially around here – even if it is over just 18 holes.
Strydom is expected to struggle leaving this as a match, and it's smashing business to get with the slightly superior player at surely his favourite course on the circuit at odds of 6/4. He could win this with a 72 and should be a strong favourite.
Finally, Fisher goes in as an afterthought.
I hadn't intended to put him up but the 11/4 quoted by Paddy Power and Befair is too big, with BoyleSports' 13/5 also acceptable. Beating Oosthuizen won't be easy but he's more likely to do so than MJ Daffue in my eyes and odds around the 2/1 mark would be more appropriate.
He's also tempting at 7/1 to be the top English player with only Whitnell ahead of him, but having advised that bet at 9/1 on Tuesday I'll avoid going back in, and hope that he can right the wrongs of a painful final hole in round three.
Posted at 1620 GMT on 10/12/22
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